Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe. With a large enough population for either the job-hunters or the employed, you should regress to the mean for the total population and the deviation should also be similar. This assumes a normal distribution for the metrics that you are hired for, something that may not be in fact true, ie. Poisson or exponential distributions are reasonable. What you can take away from this: Your own developers may not be as…
> With a large enough population for either the job-hunters or the employed, you should regress to the mean for the total population and the deviation should also be similar. You're right that the actual population of all job applicants over time is equally qualified to the employed developers. However, the data that I have available to me as a hiring manager is the sample of developers who actually applied to my job…
Actually, you only have the sample of developers you interviewed for the job. How many didn't get an interview? Are you confident that your resume filter is good and that the resumes rejected were actually bad?
> Meanwhile a friend of mine with barely any experience had to apply to about 50 places before getting a single offer.
Following up my previous point, how many interviews did that yield? The discussion here is over developers who look like idiots in the interview. Confusing that with applications clouds the discussion.