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Uber revolution will not last

washingtonpost.com

41–50 of 123 posts

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#41
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>in a few years I think you're vastly overestimating the sophistication of driverless systems.

But it may very well be a few years before a majority of riders would ride in a driverless car

It's going to be far longer before driverless cars are even on the road

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#42
post #18

This is gold... "So, yeah, it’s great: you hit the app, and the car shows up now in 10 minutes instead of a 35-minute wait. But now the traffic congestion is so bad that you’re sitting in that car for 20 minutes longer to get anywhere... cities now are starting to discuss and deal with: traffic congestion. The traffic congestion is so much worse. Now, is it all because of Uber? Not it’s not...you suddenly have a new…

Medallions (whether or not they were a good solution), were intended to restrict the number of cars on the road during peak hours, and enforce some uniform regulations on all taxis (pick up people of all races, etc.)

Uber's' innovation leads to a fleet that's easier to regulate due to constant monitoring, and pre-booking data. However, when it comes to traffic congestion, their solution is pure demand-side economics: increase prices as high as the market can bear. This means with no cap on supply, more and more cars will get put on the road to serve as part of the private fleet and it's the cities that have to bear the increased costs of road construction & maintenance.

My only hope is that rather than make cities crack down on Uber to maintain the status quo, they'll instead invest heavily in public transportation so all cities can have something on par to NYC today, and NYC tomorrow can have something on par to Tokyo.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#43
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish he would have expanded on that. Why would one fail and another not, when the companies have the exact same model?

I explained above, but Uber is way over-valued to the point that they cannot have a reasonable IPO and acquisitions are off the table to all but a few companies that don't need that business and can acquire a direct competitor at a more reasonable expense.

Box and Facebook both had IPOs that priced them below the last private round, and yet are limping along. Seems like positive cashflow is the key.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#44
The quality of the article isn't that great. But it made me think about this anyway. If Uber can achieve Kalanick's stated end game goal of driverless cars, it will absolutely last. A lot of Uber's pressures come with having to deal with drivers. I don't know what percentage, but it's significant. Variable costs, legal issues, ride quality, and so on. If all of that disappears, Uber is playing an entirely different game that it is much better poised to stick around for long-term.

That the OP criticizes Uber's Pittsburgh efforts is disingenuous because it's only a beta-phase pilot. Of course, it's that simple right now. You'd want them to go through this careful pilot phase because the concept released on the streets without full testing is so dangerous. It's an extremely tough nut to crack. But IF they crack it, they're in for the long haul. "Big Taxi" as he calls it doesn't have the desire, technical expertise, freedom, or guts to achieve the self-driving car vision. For one thing, the business is structured too much around drivers paying franchise fees. In the meantime, Uber has already multiple times shown a willingness to throw a big FU at its own drivers, so it's not actually that hard to see them one day discarding their drivers for self-driving cars and keeping all of the profit rent.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#45
One of my Uber drivers in the SF Bay Area told me that she went from making about $30/hr working in IT at a Fortune 500 company to making $40/hr driving for Uber. She has been driving for over a year, and quit her job about 9 months ago and had been driving full time, during the day. She knew how to work the incentives and the surge so that she maximized her earnings, and instead of working 8+ hrs a day, she opted to work 5-6 hrs a day and maintain the same life style. I asked her about the costs, and she has that all accounted for, including gas and depreciation. She wishes she had known about the Uber lease plan because she said that was superior because it gave free maintenance and the ability to change cars once a year. I don't know enough about it to comment, but she seemed to be pretty happy about it and 90% of the drivers I've talked to are more than happy.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#46
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they're "disrupting" the taxi industry to get to that point. So they're destroying jobs and replacing them with less secure, less paid ones. (Wether or not that disruption has a positive effect for society in the big picture is another debate - but in terms of labor you can't ignore it)

> replacing them with less secure, less paid ones My understanding is that people got in deep debt to the medallion owner, which they slowly repaid from taxi revenues. Are taxi jobs at the lowest rung that secure and well-paid?

The "medallion" system has its own problems, usually relating to monopoly power. The debt issue you mentioned is an example of that.

However, Uber (and similar businesses like airbnb) are really little more than the exploitation of legal loopholes to bypass the usual costs of employment law and industry-specific regulations. Socializing expenses is always profitable, and its easy to beat existing players if you aren't paying the same expenses.

Regarding job security, normal employees at least have a collection of legal protections that cover the employer-employee relationship. It's obviously not going to stop every type of abuse, but it's better than nothing. Some jurisdictions have started to catch up and force Uber et al to act properly, but as usual law is (very) slow to update.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#47
post #18

This is gold... "So, yeah, it’s great: you hit the app, and the car shows up now in 10 minutes instead of a 35-minute wait. But now the traffic congestion is so bad that you’re sitting in that car for 20 minutes longer to get anywhere... cities now are starting to discuss and deal with: traffic congestion. The traffic congestion is so much worse. Now, is it all because of Uber? Not it’s not...you suddenly have a new…

I won't believe cities are serious about reducing congestion until they fix the traffic lights to dynamically maximize flow.

No, it isn't done already. Too often, I am in a platoon of 20 cars that has to slam to a stop so one car can cross the intersection on the cross street, and then there's yet another minute of red with nobody in the intersection.

You'd think with cameras already installed on the lights that this would be a far, far simpler job than self-driving cars.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#48
post #18

This is gold... "So, yeah, it’s great: you hit the app, and the car shows up now in 10 minutes instead of a 35-minute wait. But now the traffic congestion is so bad that you’re sitting in that car for 20 minutes longer to get anywhere... cities now are starting to discuss and deal with: traffic congestion. The traffic congestion is so much worse. Now, is it all because of Uber? Not it’s not...you suddenly have a new…

Medallions (whether or not they were a good solution), were intended to restrict the number of cars on the road during peak hours, and enforce some uniform regulations on all taxis (pick up people of all races, etc.) Uber's' innovation leads to a fleet that's easier to regulate due to constant monitoring, and pre-booking data. However, when it comes to traffic congestion, their solution is pure demand-side economics:…

That's not exactly true, cities can and do still have limits on the number of cars, case in point Seattle:

hhttp://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/03/seattle-city-cou...

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#49
post #12

As a legally blind person living in the urban sprawl of LA, I rely on Uber and Lyft heavily to be able to commute and run errands. There is a lot about these companies that remains ethically and economically questionable, but until the public transportation options in the area are as quick and accessible as these services I will continue to use them. The pricing is the most unnerving thing for me. In some cases, I am…

Yea, in Africa they have what is called a free market. Here we have local political corruption in the name of 'safety regulation'. I suppose it is cultural in the sense that we have come to expect terrible service and products.

Re: Uber revolution will not last

#50
post #44

The quality of the article isn't that great. But it made me think about this anyway. If Uber can achieve Kalanick's stated end game goal of driverless cars, it will absolutely last. A lot of Uber's pressures come with having to deal with drivers. I don't know what percentage, but it's significant. Variable costs, legal issues, ride quality, and so on. If all of that disappears, Uber is playing an entirely different g…

It's the opposite.

Once fully self-driving cars are completely actualized, then ridesharing companies like Uber will collapse, because the entire thing becomes a commodity. Right now, there's a lot more to Uber and ride-sharing than just matching cars and riders. There are layers of complexities that are created because you need to deal with real humans on both ends.

Once you get rid of human drivers, anyone can build a ride-sharing system. It just takes enough money to buy enough cars, and the ride sharing app, and that's it. Uber would then be competing against anyone and everyone, and then it's a race to $0, maybe even it turns into a free ride if you watch ads all drive long.

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