As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income • Hacker News Board

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#211

Post by marcosdumay » Mon, Sep 26, 2016, 8:05 PM UTC

Tycho wrote: post #209

marcosdumay wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from vid…

I just think predictions are worthless if you don't put any kind of time horizon on them and don't explain why existing trends indicate otherwise. As you said, we have seen a proliferation of devices, equipment and information that make it easier than ever for people to form a fitness plan and measure progress. We have also, at the same time, seen a large increase in the number of personal trainers in employment. Thi…

As their job gets automated and more productive, we'll probably see more employment of personal trainers. At least for a while. There are many people that would like to hire one, but won't because it's too expensive - as it gets cheaper, more get hired.

Programmers are on this same stage of the cycle. But I expect we to last there much more than personal trainers.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#212

Post by Tycho » Tue, Sep 27, 2016, 1:01 AM UTC

marcosdumay wrote: post #211

Tycho wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just think predictions are worthless if you don't put any kind of time horizon on them and don't explain why existing trends indicate otherwise. As you said, we have seen a proliferation of devices, equipment and information that make it easier than ever for people to form a fitness plan and measure progress. We have also, at the same time, seen a large increase in the number of personal trainers in employment. Thi…

As their job gets automated and more productive, we'll probably see more employment of personal trainers. At least for a while. There are many people that would like to hire one, but won't because it's too expensive - as it gets cheaper, more get hired. Programmers are on this same stage of the cycle. But I expect we to last there much more than personal trainers.

If you went back 40 years, you'd probably find people saying accountancy was a dying profession, that it was only a matter of time before their function is entirely carried out by computers. And indeed we have software for probably every accountancy task, just as people imagined back then. We've had it for years. We still have accountants.

People are willing to pay to have someone shield them from the complexity, the diligence, and the organizational effort behind everyday endeavors. That's not going to change.

Also, automation's track record is incredibly overrated. It seems to only work in situations with exquisitely controlled conditions, like assembly lines. People bring up super-market check-outs, but this only works because the customer does all the physical work themselves. The bridge between automation and complexity is intelligence... and we're nowhere even remotely close to having AGI technology.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#213

Post by DougWebb » Tue, Sep 27, 2016, 2:45 PM UTC

Tycho wrote: post #177

DougWebb wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, servants for the aristocrats, basically. Nice utopian future, if you're rich.

Lots of regular people already have a lawyer, a stylist/hairdresser, a doctor, accountant, tutor for the kids etc. I'm pretty sure those workers don't consider themselves servants of anyone.

That's because there's relatively few of them, serving many customers. The GP post inverts that, suggesting the vast majority working service jobs for the relatively few customers who can afford to pay them. That's a servant/aristocrat relationship.