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As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#201

Post by capsule_toy »

levelist_com wrote: post #110

I'm curious, and this may have been discussed elsewhere, but how would that work in a country like the US (both in terms of size of population and capitalistic greed)? For instance, when student loans became ubiquitous, universities raised their rates. Now there are many theories as to why that was but I feel the simplest explanation is that a) it created greater demand, and b) easy/cheap money (look at ITT). What's…

No one really knows the long-term effects of basic income, so it's all a bit of speculation and it's certainly possible that what you think will happen actually does. I personally think some costs would go up while others will not, largely determined by competition and supply/demand.

For example, if we look at food, it's a competitive industry and prices tend to only rise when costs (labor, food supply, rent) increase. I don't see why this will change under basic income. People aren't going to want to start spending $20 at McDonald's just b/c they can afford to do so and if Carl's Jr can undercut McDonald's at $15 w/o taking a loss, they will.

I can see housing costs increasing. Everyone wants to live in the same areas, so the supply of good housing is constrained. This is reflected in housing increasing in proportion of a person's income over the last couple of decades while food and clothes have fallen. But I also believe alternatives will start appearing to meet the demand for basic income level housing. It won't be as nice, but at least people can have a roof over their head. As an example, dormitory style living or elderly care facilities.

Lastly, what are the alternatives? If you agree that the problem is that automation is going to make a lot of ppl unemployed while concentrating wealth to the few, what other solutions exist besides wealth redistribution? If we have to redistribute wealth, how else would we do it?

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#202

Post by unprepare »

rhino369 wrote: post #122
cmurf wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

Those sky high tax rates were only applied to earned income. Capital gains was never anywhere near that high. All that means is the owners of capital stay rich and nobody can earn their way into being rich. You have to invest or already be rich. If you tried taxing capital that much they'd flee the country.

who cares? theyd have to pay an expatriation tax on their wealth in order to take their money out of the country anyways. Theyd have to forfeit their US citizenship in order to not owe US taxes.

If they think thats worth it, then let them. Why is this such a horrible outcome?

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#203

Post by marcosdumay »

Tycho wrote: post #176
marcosdumay wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.

So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?

Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong?

Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from video games to in-lab research.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#204

Post by zajd »

Mendenhall wrote: post #114
zajd wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this any different from "Vote for me and taxes go down!!"? At least we'd have a different choice.

For me its different in a few ways. For one the amount given will never go down, people would flip. Second by the sales pitch of "taxes goes down" the government does not get more control over and of the money. Vast majority don't like the idea of taxes being raised on them no matter who they are. The sales pitch of "get more money" will also be used to hide and justify taxes going up etc. They will do things like on…

> Vast majority don't like the idea of taxes being raised on them no matter who they are.

I don't know, people in my town regularly vote for tax increases and vote for politicians who want to raise taxes. Seems like a political issue tbqh.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#205

Post by gjolund »

cmurf wrote: post #80
anovikov wrote: post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

This is such a naive interpretation of the tax policy at those times.

I don't think you have ever heard of capital gains.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#206

Post by gjolund »

Iv wrote: post #197
anovikov wrote: post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

It won't happen in USA first. Too much ideological baggage will prevent USA from believing it is possible (and actually oppose people who try it) before it is actually implemented and working in other countries. I would like to believe that a dynamic EU country will implement it first but actually my money is on China. They fear riots, they need to keep people's income growing (even steady is not an option) and they…

China will just go to war, easiest way I know of to get rid of an unemployable population.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#207

Post by gjolund »

zanny wrote: post #58
jimmywanger wrote: post #55

Every time I hear arguments about basic incomes, I think of universe 25. http://mysteriousuniverse.org/2015/03/the-amazing-rise-and-f... Fundamentally, we're all animals and due to physics and material constraints, there's scarcity involved. By giving a basic income, we're pretty much ignoring the fact that eventually we will run out of water and food and manufactured goods.

You can't relate the rodent utopia experiments as a defense of having to keep people in need of basic necessities to survive or they lose the will to live. Besides the fact you are comparing rats to people, even the study itself considers all the localized factors that contributed to societal collapse: * You are isolating them in a relatively small space with one another. * You have uncontrolled population growth. *…

> * You are isolating them in a relatively small space with one another.

Earth.

> * You have uncontrolled population growth.

3rd world.

> * You are using a species that naturally trends towards "clan wars" for territory.

History.

> * They are rats, and thus have nothing productive to do with their time in the absence of survival.

Snapchat doesn't count as productivity.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#209

Post by Tycho »

marcosdumay wrote: post #203
Tycho wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?

Are you really trying to entrap me into turning my observation about the present into a prediction about the future that will be wrong? Automation of personal trainers is already ongoing. People have been more successful on automating the "motivational" aspect of the job (probably because this one isn't regulated). But there are lots tentative initiatives to automate the "teaching and correcting" aspect too, from vid…

I just think predictions are worthless if you don't put any kind of time horizon on them and don't explain why existing trends indicate otherwise.

As you said, we have seen a proliferation of devices, equipment and information that make it easier than ever for people to form a fitness plan and measure progress. We have also, at the same time, seen a large increase in the number of personal trainers in employment. This would suggest that technological progress in this sector is complimenting/augmenting, not replacing, the work of humans.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#210

Post by auxbuss »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #149
chimeracoder wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This I don't get -- why are rich savers bad? How can a large number in some bank account possibly affect anyone else's life in any tangible way? Quite the opposite - savings are integral to a healthy economy. Investment (in an aggregate economy) must equal savings; this is an identity, not an equation. Any money that is invested (whether loaned to private individuals to buy a house or car, or whether invested by th…

> "Investment (in an aggregate economy) must equal savings; this is an identity, not an equation. Any money that is invested (whether loaned to private individuals to buy a house or car, or whether invested by the state into public infrastructure) - all that requires others' savings in order to happen." Sorry to say but whilst what you say makes logical sense, it is in fact wrong. When a bank makes someone a loan for…

Money creation is so poorly understood that the Bank of England undertook to clarify[0]:

• This article explains how the majority of money in the modern economy is created by commercial banks making loans.

• Money creation in practice differs from some popular misconceptions — banks do not act simply as intermediaries, lending out deposits that savers place with them, and nor do they ‘multiply up’ central bank money to create new loans and deposits.

• The amount of money created in the economy ultimately depends on the monetary policy of the central bank. In normal times, this is carried out by setting interest rates. The central bank can also affect the amount of money directly through purchasing assets or ‘quantitative easing’.

[0] http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarte...

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