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As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#151

Post by coldtea »

trentlott wrote: post #70
coldtea wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The opposite of Luddite is believe that it will all get sorted out in the end inevitable. As the fall of Rome, the middle ages, and several other dark periods in human history show, this is now always the case. > There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Several things, yes. A lot, no. And even if those types of jobs were many, what matters is the num…

Do we value art? It seems to be hard to make a life that way unless you find some corporate niche. I think automated/algorithmic music and art will happen quite quickly, if it hasn't already.

>Do we value art?

If you mean emotionally and intellectually, then yes, it has been an essential part of human civilisation since there were cavemen painting on caves. And it doesn't have to be Beethoven to fill the role of art, it can also be Cheap Trick or Skrillex.

If you mean financially, then yes again. If we include music, movies, comics, books and TV it's 300bn dollar industry. If we are to believe the news (1), more than €51 billion of fine art was traded in 2014 alone -- and that's a kind of art that concerns rather few people.

>I think automated/algorithmic music and art will happen quite quickly, if it hasn't already.

What would be the point? More than the artifact, we value the connection with the artist.

(1) https://www.artsy.net/article/editorial-the-art-markets-reco...

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#152

Post by cstanley »

trentlott wrote: post #64
wyldfire wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “When I play a game, I know if I have a few hours I will be rewarded,” he said. “With a job, it’s always been up in the air with the amount of work I put in and the reward.” This is stunning to me. I know that among the world, we in the US sometimes have a different work ethic. But video games coming up in this discussion of rewards per time invested is mind-boggling. > Happiness has gone up for this group, despite…

I initially thought the same thingabout happiness, but the problem isn't in their 20s while they're relatively healthy and have their whole lives ahead of them. Will they still be happy and fulfilled bagging groceries for half a day and going home to play GTA12 on their MagicLeap...rather than going to the doctor for that weird shooting pain or the cough they couldn't shake after being sick half the summer? Will they…

I think this is already happening in Japan via the Japanese herbivore man...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbivore_men

there are too many similarities between our economy and what Japan has already gone though, let's get ready for 0% rates for the next 20 years...

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#153

Post by ZenoArrow »

tlb wrote: post #123
duaneb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uninvested cash does nobody good.

Not true. When you put it in a bank, the bank loans it out (usually at a multiple). Even if you put stacks of bills under your mattress, you're effectively making a loan to the mint to fund government operations. Some invested money is bad, though. Investment in many businesses is bad for the world: cigarette companies, casinos, monopolistic roll-up companies.

Banks don't loan out savings. That's a myth. The money for the loan is created by the act of creating the loan. Loans are effectively banks 'licence to print money'.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#154

Post by DougWebb »

SomeStupidPoint wrote: post #68
schrodinger wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think we're anywhere near doctors and lawyers losing their jobs to automation. It's mostly lower class jobs.

I would argue that we're already at the point where the law industry has begun shedding paralegals and clerks because of technology, and that we'll see this rapidly accelerate, followed by AI beginning to take over the work of lawyers as such, with only a few humans overseeing the AI teams. The medical industry is likewise on the cusp of beginning to have AI assisted diagnosis, which will put a dent in the number of…

For the medical industry, it's not the doctors that are ripe for being automated away; it's all of the administrative assistants managing paperwork and offices. If the mess that's today's US medical records, billing systems, and insurance ever gets straightened out, it can all be reduced down to a data-entry system that the doctor uses directly while interacting with patients. Just about everything else could be automated.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#155

Post by xg15 »

svantana wrote: post #94
cmurf wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

This I don't get -- why are rich savers bad? How can a large number in some bank account possibly affect anyone else's life in any tangible way? The way I see it, the 'problem' with rich folks is when they use up a disproportionate amount of resources without creating any value, e.g. buying land, houses, cars and employing people to do their pointless (from society's perspective) bidding. I.e. spending money.

What's bad is the accumulation of power that comes with the saved money.

If you have locked away some large number in some bank account, that comes with the possibility to unlock that bank account at some point. if the right people know about that possibility, that will put you in a significantly different position.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#156

Post by amatic »

I think the society might shift toward more entrepreneurial lifestyle. More and more people will own automatons, robots, AIs that do stuff for them, and either use or sell the results of their labor. There will likely be a scale of 'intelligence' of robots - some might be similar to dogs or dolphins or highly specialized for particular jobs. Lots of people might own taxi cars that work for them. Or a bunch of robot-workers that build houses. Or robot actors or something. You rent them out, lease them, make some money, take care of their energy needs, fix them up, maybe train them for other jobs...

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#157

Post by Koshkin »

An alternative to the basic income is free access to (basic) food, shelter, health services, education, etc. Which is called (basically) socialism. The (important) difference between that and basic income is that with basic income you get free access to non-essentials, such as entertainment, restaurants, alcohol, tobacco, etc.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#158

Post by wstrange »

kamaal wrote: post #133
cmurf wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

>>Rich investors = good. Rich savers = bad. Why do each of these tax schemes feel like the poor want a consolation, and they would accept a compromise deal wherein rich would be made poor, just in case they can't be made rich. Never heard a single argument why some human beings getting ahead of others is wrong. No matter how hard you try there is always some people who are richer, some who can draw better, some who c…

No one is talking about making rich people poor. That is a strawman.

Do you really believe some hedge fund manager should pay less tax as a percentage than a school teacher?

There are places in the world where you can move to and pay no effective tax. They tend to be pretty crappy places to live.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#159

Post by ZenoArrow »

Tycho wrote: post #136
ZenoArrow wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professio…

I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.

> "I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization."

You can try, and depending on how close you are to retirement perhaps you'll succeed, but I'd argue future generations may not have this choice. Automation/AI is on course to touch every corner of human activity, it's not a question about if it's going to happen but rather how soon and who benefits. The idea behind UBI and other similar ideas is to let this upcoming change in our society be a force of good for all, rather than one that widens the gap between the rich and the poor.

As to the personal assistant robots/AI, other replies have addressed the main points, but I would say to think more in terms of PC accessories if you're struggling to get your head around it. For example, what does a fitness coach need to do? Set out training and diet plans, monitor form and performance and motivate. An AI solution can so all of these things, and in terms of hardware all you need is a TV, a webcam (or something more advanced like a Kinect) and a heart rate monitor. In some ways the automated fitness coach/personal trainer is already possible, it's just a matter of refinement.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#160

Post by objectivistbrit »

noobermin wrote: post #142
objectivistbrit wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government is needed to enforce the laws. This does not mean the goverment needs to redistribute wealth, regulate business or manage the economy. A government which stuck to this role could be funded by tax rates of about 5-8%. My ideal society would have said funds made by voluntary donations. This is a far-off ideal, but it is achievable - unless you think humans cannot form a society without coercion.

Often times, experience suggests people are not saints and will do or not do things unless compelled by laws and rules.

Re-read my post. Laws are needed, government is needed, taxation and coercion are not needed.
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