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Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

latimes.com

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Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#91

Post by beaner »

DavidWanjiru wrote: post #83

I always have a question about this stuff: when the robots take all of our jobs (or the jobs of a critical mass of the human population), who is going to buy all this stuff the robots make if the humans who are supposed to buy the stuff are broke because they lost their job to a robot? Has anybody tried to do some kind of study/educated guess about this impact? At the end of the day, while robots can do our jobs bett…

Haven't people been asking this for the past few hundred years? And yet we're better off in life than we ever have been.

Robots do things cheaper. This allows prices to fall.

Also, if a business has nobody to sell to, then they themselves are in trouble. That they remain profitable is a sign that things are fine.

Humans are adaptable creatures and we find other things of value to do.

People from some industries will experience short-term pain. But pre-empting that with politics runs the risk of creating socioeconomic cruft that unnecessarily and inefficiently drains more resources in the long run.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#93

Post by DavidWanjiru »

xapata wrote: post #88
DavidWanjiru wrote: post #83

I always have a question about this stuff: when the robots take all of our jobs (or the jobs of a critical mass of the human population), who is going to buy all this stuff the robots make if the humans who are supposed to buy the stuff are broke because they lost their job to a robot? Has anybody tried to do some kind of study/educated guess about this impact? At the end of the day, while robots can do our jobs bett…

Through most of history, people transition to doing other jobs. That transition is often painful. Thus various government welfare programs.

Well, if this video [0] is anything to go by, most of the other jobs will be automated as well. And although I have no foresight to know how it will pan out, it looks like advances in technology (which have produced previously unimagined jobs for humans - hello, Android dev), advances in technology in this new age will only create new jobs for automatons, not for humans.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#94

Post by duaneb »

beaner wrote: post #91
DavidWanjiru wrote: post #83

I always have a question about this stuff: when the robots take all of our jobs (or the jobs of a critical mass of the human population), who is going to buy all this stuff the robots make if the humans who are supposed to buy the stuff are broke because they lost their job to a robot? Has anybody tried to do some kind of study/educated guess about this impact? At the end of the day, while robots can do our jobs bett…

Haven't people been asking this for the past few hundred years? And yet we're better off in life than we ever have been. Robots do things cheaper. This allows prices to fall. Also, if a business has nobody to sell to, then they themselves are in trouble. That they remain profitable is a sign that things are fine. Humans are adaptable creatures and we find other things of value to do. People from some industries will…

> Haven't people been asking this for the past few hundred years? And yet we're better off in life than we ever have been.

I don't think everyone--in this time or others--would agree with this. I certainly don't believe in being "better off", I think that's an illusion born out of minimization of our greatest fears. Just because you aren't about to die of tetanus does not mean your quality of life has improve at all.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#95

Post by hyperliner »

applecore wrote: post #90
DavidWanjiru wrote: post #83

I always have a question about this stuff: when the robots take all of our jobs (or the jobs of a critical mass of the human population), who is going to buy all this stuff the robots make if the humans who are supposed to buy the stuff are broke because they lost their job to a robot? Has anybody tried to do some kind of study/educated guess about this impact? At the end of the day, while robots can do our jobs bett…

In a word, redistribution. With a rising share of income going to robots (capital) rather than humans (labor), there needs to be a stronger social safety net. This means guaranteed health insurance, health care, retirement benefits, and even a minimum income. That safety net will have to be paid for via some combination of taxes on wealth, profits, and investment income.

I guess a question is: where would the income (that is supposed to be "redistributed") come from, in a world where the customers of every commercial entity cannot earn an income to pay taxes and contribute to the pool to be redistributed?

I guess a country could always wage war against another and take their resources or enslave their people.

Is that the ultimate outcome?

Not trying to stir politics here, just to find the theoretical limit of an economy where all actors can be automated.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#96

Post by susan_hall »

beaner wrote: post #91
DavidWanjiru wrote: post #83

I always have a question about this stuff: when the robots take all of our jobs (or the jobs of a critical mass of the human population), who is going to buy all this stuff the robots make if the humans who are supposed to buy the stuff are broke because they lost their job to a robot? Has anybody tried to do some kind of study/educated guess about this impact? At the end of the day, while robots can do our jobs bett…

Haven't people been asking this for the past few hundred years? And yet we're better off in life than we ever have been. Robots do things cheaper. This allows prices to fall. Also, if a business has nobody to sell to, then they themselves are in trouble. That they remain profitable is a sign that things are fine. Humans are adaptable creatures and we find other things of value to do. People from some industries will…

My great grand mother gave birth to 16 children, who had healthy childhoods and good educations. My family was not wealthy. Nowadays only the wealthy could afford to raise 16 children, with good childhoods and good education. If people now are more affluent than they were in the past, then why is it more difficult to raise children? For those who wish to have large families, it seems obvious that the last 100 years have seen expenses related to raising children rise at a rate faster than the median wage has risen.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#97

Post by xapata »

DavidWanjiru wrote: post #93
xapata wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Through most of history, people transition to doing other jobs. That transition is often painful. Thus various government welfare programs.

Well, if this video [0] is anything to go by, most of the other jobs will be automated as well. And although I have no foresight to know how it will pan out, it looks like advances in technology (which have produced previously unimagined jobs for humans - hello, Android dev), advances in technology in this new age will only create new jobs for automatons, not for humans. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQ…

Until we hit the singularity, programmers can always get more meta -- thinking about how to do the job rather than doing the job, no matter what the job is. It's infinitely recursive.

In the not-so-distant future, nearly all jobs will be programming jobs. That or shaking hands and smiling.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#98

Post by susan_hall »

hyperliner wrote: post #95
applecore wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a word, redistribution. With a rising share of income going to robots (capital) rather than humans (labor), there needs to be a stronger social safety net. This means guaranteed health insurance, health care, retirement benefits, and even a minimum income. That safety net will have to be paid for via some combination of taxes on wealth, profits, and investment income.

I guess a question is: where would the income (that is supposed to be "redistributed") come from, in a world where the customers of every commercial entity cannot earn an income to pay taxes and contribute to the pool to be redistributed? I guess a country could always wage war against another and take their resources or enslave their people. Is that the ultimate outcome? Not trying to stir politics here, just to fin…

> where would the income come from

You are confusing money with wealth (stuff people want). The money would come from the government, which can simply print it.

Take a hypothetical situation where robots cause the total amount of wealth (stuff) created, in one year, to increase by 100%. Now assume the government prints enough money to increase the total amount of money by 100%. In this case, wealth has increased by 100%, and money has increased by 100%, so people's ability to get stuff has increased 100%, with 0% inflation.

In the real world, things never work out so cleanly, but the above offers a simplified model of what could happen.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#99

Post by hyperliner »

It's not just the drivers. Drivers stop at stores along the highways. They will suffer impact too. Drivers need to take laundry to the cleaners. That is gone. They need to sleep along the way, so let's hotel rooms needed and less hotel personnel needed.

The ripple effect is significant.

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