As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income • Hacker News Board

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#91

Post by shkkmo » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:40 PM UTC

platz wrote: post #13

"Take an IPhone - you find a variety of technologies - each one was created by some government grant... The collective production of wealth, which is then privately appropriated.. it's very easy to start thinking of basic income as a dividend that goes to the collective that was responsible for collectively producting the wealth." "We need to create a system whereby society stakes a claim to the returns to aggregate…

Varoufakis is one of my modern political heroes.

I particularly like the point he makes at 16:14: "The right to turn down a job is essential to a well functioning labor market"..."to have a genuine right to turn down a job, you must have an alternative, an outside option, because desperate people will accept to do desperate things".

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#92

Post by bluejekyll » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:41 PM UTC

friendlygrammar wrote: post #82

cmurf wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

>There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. When we were at war. There was also a longer time when there were no taxes.

No income taxes I assume you mean, and only in the US. I think they were introduced at the federal level in 1861 to support the civil war, then it was repealed in 1895 via constitutional argument in the Supreme Court. This forced the government to pass a constitutional amendment in 1913 to keep the income tax in place.

So the income tax has existed for more that 50% of the US' history at this point. That doesn't include whatever States decides to impose.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#93

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:45 PM UTC

wingless wrote: post #15

cstanley wrote: post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

What else can they do? With the new wave of AI and automation there will be no jobs left for people with below average intelligence. You will need more and more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

[deleted]

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#94

Post by svantana » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:50 PM UTC

cmurf wrote: post #80

anovikov wrote: post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…

This I don't get -- why are rich savers bad? How can a large number in some bank account possibly affect anyone else's life in any tangible way? The way I see it, the 'problem' with rich folks is when they use up a disproportionate amount of resources without creating any value, e.g. buying land, houses, cars and employing people to do their pointless (from society's perspective) bidding. I.e. spending money.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#95

Post by platz » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:51 PM UTC

objectivistbrit wrote: post #86

platz wrote: post #13

"Take an IPhone - you find a variety of technologies - each one was created by some government grant... The collective production of wealth, which is then privately appropriated.. it's very easy to start thinking of basic income as a dividend that goes to the collective that was responsible for collectively producting the wealth." "We need to create a system whereby society stakes a claim to the returns to aggregate…

Since WW2 most basic research has been funded by governments, but prior to WW2, the industrial revolution happened without state funding. Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more. Paris Hilton obviously didn't earn her money, but her parents chose to give it to her, and millions of people chose to stay at…

I'm not sure things are as zero-sum as you imply - he's not saying Paris can't have her trust fund.

> There's no consistent way to assert the right to violate property rights, without abolishing property altogether.

Is this a false dichotomy? It seem like defining it as a 'violation of property rights' that 'abolishes property altogether' renders things completely implausible by pushing it to it's extremes.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#96

Post by shkkmo » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:51 PM UTC

objectivistbrit wrote: post #86

platz wrote: post #13

"Take an IPhone - you find a variety of technologies - each one was created by some government grant... The collective production of wealth, which is then privately appropriated.. it's very easy to start thinking of basic income as a dividend that goes to the collective that was responsible for collectively producting the wealth." "We need to create a system whereby society stakes a claim to the returns to aggregate…

Since WW2 most basic research has been funded by governments, but prior to WW2, the industrial revolution happened without state funding. Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more. Paris Hilton obviously didn't earn her money, but her parents chose to give it to her, and millions of people chose to stay at…

> Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more.

Regardless of if the research done prior to WW2 was funded privately or publicly, that knowledge is part of our shared culture heritage.

The fact is, regardless of how well they run their hotels, the Hiltons could not be where they are without the travelers who pay to stay at their hotels. Without the government regulation, infrastructure and security that makes such travel safe and easy there would not be the market for the Hiltons to have made their money in.

The government has a critical responsibility for keeping our shared economy healthy, growing and stable. Taxation to do this is not a moral RIGHT, but a moral RESPONSIBILITY.

You sound like you think we'd do OK with no taxes, and thus no government. That is more idealistic and unrealistic than even the most ardently blind arguments for BI.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#97

Post by RodericDay » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:54 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #20

StriverGuy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

The opposite of Luddite is believe that it will all get sorted out in the end inevitable. As the fall of Rome, the middle ages, and several other dark periods in human history show, this is now always the case. > There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Several things, yes. A lot, no. And even if those types of jobs were many, what matters is the num…

Of the many words mocking the opposite of a Luddite, I've always liked "Panglossian", from Dr. Pangloss in Candide.

> Dr. Pangloss was the pedantic old tutor in Voltaire's satirical novel Candide. Pangloss was an incurable, albeit misguided, optimist who claimed that "all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds." So persistent was he in his optimism that he kept it even after witnessing and experiencing great cruelty and suffering. The name "Pangloss" comes from Greek pan, meaning "all," and glossa, meaning "tongue," suggesting glibness and talkativeness.

You see people trying to articulate the desperation they feel about job loss, and some Pangloss sweeps by to comfort them by talking about how macroeconomically speaking they are more than offset by someone else's gain in welfare. It's bizarre.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#98

Post by platz » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:56 PM UTC

shkkmo wrote: post #96

objectivistbrit wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since WW2 most basic research has been funded by governments, but prior to WW2, the industrial revolution happened without state funding. Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more. Paris Hilton obviously didn't earn her money, but her parents chose to give it to her, and millions of people chose to stay at…

> Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more. Regardless of if the research done prior to WW2 was funded privately or publicly, that knowledge is part of our shared culture heritage. The fact is, regardless of how well they run their hotels, the Hiltons could not be where they are without the travelers who p…

one note about Taxation. He's careful about using that word because he doesn't want the money to go federal coffers that the state can spend as they see fit. It almost has to be a side-channel that doesn't use the normal tax machinery - which is the talk of 'dividends' and such.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#99

Post by Qantourisc » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:56 PM UTC

anovikov wrote: post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

We are not talking a little crime here, we are talking a lot of crime ...

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#100

Post by klenwell » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 7:56 PM UTC

endswapper wrote: post #12

anovikov wrote: post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

I disagree it is more probable that, "ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries." Generally, crime is on the decline, even as we see technology and economies evolve to include more automation and less human labor: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-…

I think both you and @anovikov are on to something. A decline in crime is not incompatible with increasing law enforcement expenditures and the general militarization of civilian police forces that been much lamented here and elsewhere. Nor is a decline in crime in the recent past incompatible with an uptick in crime rates in the present and near future. (Some reference to recent national crime statistics -- especially property crime -- might be in order here but I can't find a reliable one offhand.)

As far as societal adjustment, this episode of This American Life, a couple years old already, takes a detailed look at how a de facto pilot program in Guaranteed Basic Income is already being "implemented piece-meal" in the U.S.:

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/490/t...

I've seen this linked here before and it really is a great eye-opening journalistic investigation of the issue.

Will this scale? Would a more transparent implementation be politically palatable in the US?

I think this is one of the fundamental issues starting to get worked out in the current US presidential election with Sanders millenials tending to support an implementation of lifestyles standards like those found in European social democracies and Trump boomers seeming to suggest that protectionism and a re-assertion of vague nativistic principles will restore the lifestyle standards that well-paying blue collar jobs provided for them and their parents in the past.