Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

npr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 213 posts

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#61

Post by zanny »

schrodinger wrote: post #57
cstanley wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make art, educate themselves, read books - but the reward mechanisms of those activities are much less stimulating than those of video games.

I also think art can include things like being a chef, barista, baker, barber, and brewer, distiller, wine maker; not just the things we typically call art. Things that are in more demand than paintings.

Except all those jobs are going away with the automation revolution. You can't have an economy based off the equivalent of getting carriage rides in central park where its just a frivolous humor to experience human powered food production or a haircut done by a barber.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#62

Post by zanny »

wyldfire wrote: post #23
wingless wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What else can they do? With the new wave of AI and automation there will be no jobs left for people with below average intelligence. You will need more and more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

> more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs. Research is suited to fairly scientific minds but I think programming is totally something anyone who's interested can do. Software development continues to modernize and become more accessible. If you're motivated, I'd say you can definitely do programming. And the best part is that it applies to virtually any existing job.

Some people cannot think analyticalally enough to maintain the state of a program in their head. This is why freshman CS classes can see retention rates in the single digits. You adapt your brain doing it over a long enough time, and when you start doing it early in life you evolve your brain to suit the task, but for anyone who lacks the critical thinking and logic to think programatically the later in life you are the less likely to be able to ever internalize it you get.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#63

Post by ZenoArrow »

barpet wrote: post #16

Guaranteed income is not a solution. Sure housing and food are the most 2 important things but people need to feel they are needed in the society.

> "people need to feel they are needed in the society."

That can be achieved in different ways. The health of communities does not need to rely on earning money, there are plenty of other ways to build a vibrant society that still values the contribution of individuals.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#64

Post by trentlott »

wyldfire wrote: post #19
cstanley wrote: post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

> “When I play a game, I know if I have a few hours I will be rewarded,” he said. “With a job, it’s always been up in the air with the amount of work I put in and the reward.” This is stunning to me. I know that among the world, we in the US sometimes have a different work ethic. But video games coming up in this discussion of rewards per time invested is mind-boggling. > Happiness has gone up for this group, despite…

I initially thought the same thingabout happiness, but the problem isn't in their 20s while they're relatively healthy and have their whole lives ahead of them.

Will they still be happy and fulfilled bagging groceries for half a day and going home to play GTA12 on their MagicLeap...rather than going to the doctor for that weird shooting pain or the cough they couldn't shake after being sick half the summer?

Will they simply opt not to get married? What about having kids? Both would be hard to reconcile with such a life -not saying anyone must or should do those things, but some might feel differently at 35 or 40 and find it hard to switch gears.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#65

Post by cstanley »

schrodinger wrote: post #57
cstanley wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make art, educate themselves, read books - but the reward mechanisms of those activities are much less stimulating than those of video games.

I also think art can include things like being a chef, barista, baker, barber, and brewer, distiller, wine maker; not just the things we typically call art. Things that are in more demand than paintings.

Don't think automation will get rid of these jobs - have you seen the cronut? Don't think a computer would have been able to derive that creation... (not sarcastic)

Also, as we create more time, we'll have to spend it on these luxurious that currently seem frivolous.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#67

Post by ZenoArrow »

schrodinger wrote: post #56
ZenoArrow wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This time it's different. Our most valuable asset as workers is our minds, if AI can make inroads into white-collar work as well as blue-collar and pink-collar work, what will be left for humans to do? We're not just talking about low-skilled workers losing their jobs, we're also looking at previously safe jobs like doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc... due to be facing very strong competition from the growth of AI (…

I don't think we're anywhere near doctors and lawyers losing their jobs to automation. It's mostly lower class jobs.

I'd recommend watching this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#68

Post by SomeStupidPoint »

schrodinger wrote: post #56
ZenoArrow wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This time it's different. Our most valuable asset as workers is our minds, if AI can make inroads into white-collar work as well as blue-collar and pink-collar work, what will be left for humans to do? We're not just talking about low-skilled workers losing their jobs, we're also looking at previously safe jobs like doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc... due to be facing very strong competition from the growth of AI (…

I don't think we're anywhere near doctors and lawyers losing their jobs to automation. It's mostly lower class jobs.

I would argue that we're already at the point where the law industry has begun shedding paralegals and clerks because of technology, and that we'll see this rapidly accelerate, followed by AI beginning to take over the work of lawyers as such, with only a few humans overseeing the AI teams. The medical industry is likewise on the cusp of beginning to have AI assisted diagnosis, which will put a dent in the number of doctors needed for routine check-ups and supervising patient care, eg, overseeing a course of chemo (in that a single doctor will be able to oversee more cases with AI doing the heavy lifting and the human merely verifying its conclusions).

The problem with AI isn't that it's going to get rid of all the people in any industry -- it's that it's going to get rid of 90% of them, skewed towards the lower skilled and entry level positions. If this happens across enough industries at the same time, it's a question of what the less talented and younger will do to be part of the economy.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#69

Post by zanny »

booleandilemma wrote: post #10
StriverGuy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

I'm worried that the jobs that will be left to us at some point in the future will either be outside the capabilities of most people, or wholly undesirable.

We are already there, no? It is hugely undesirable to work in the service industry because there is no potential upward movement and you are disposable. Nobody wants to work at McDonalds, yet we have a crisis of over-certification for service jobs because people going to college get useless degrees.

If there were jobs within their capabilities that were not undesirable they would be doing them, so what that does mean is that for a huge portion of the economy, people are doing undesirable jobs because they don't have the skills to do desirable ones.

HN is in kind of its own reality sphere, since everyone likes coding and startups and thinks the work is great, when if you drive 100 miles in any direction from whatever tech hub bubble you are living in you will find entire counties in decline as the only work is at Walmart and there is no industry left to aspire towards for the residents. The main street of town is half condemned, there are old abandoned shoe and plastics factories and half the farmland is either abandoned or corporate owned and manned by a skeleton crew of a few dozen people farming the entire region.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#70

Post by trentlott »

coldtea wrote: post #20
StriverGuy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

The opposite of Luddite is believe that it will all get sorted out in the end inevitable. As the fall of Rome, the middle ages, and several other dark periods in human history show, this is now always the case. > There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Several things, yes. A lot, no. And even if those types of jobs were many, what matters is the num…

Do we value art? It seems to be hard to make a life that way unless you find some corporate niche.

I think automated/algorithmic music and art will happen quite quickly, if it hasn't already.

Post reply on HN