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As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#21
post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

What else can they do? With the new wave of AI and automation there will be no jobs left for people with below average intelligence. You will need more and more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

I did not have the impression that world needs 100m mediocre programmers or did you ? We need a concrete problem solvers. If society gets fucked up because a lot of people will have nothing to do and a handful of other people will have all the money and power then I think that is a problem a programmer or a scientific researcher cannot fix.

Or do you really think that because you are a programmer you are safe ? :-)

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#22
post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.

Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone?

Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs.

I'm honestly curious what you think it is that <95th percentile humans will have to contribute to the future economy.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#23
post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

What else can they do? With the new wave of AI and automation there will be no jobs left for people with below average intelligence. You will need more and more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

> more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

Research is suited to fairly scientific minds but I think programming is totally something anyone who's interested can do.

Software development continues to modernize and become more accessible. If you're motivated, I'd say you can definitely do programming. And the best part is that it applies to virtually any existing job.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#24
At this point, I have grown sour on Guaranteed Basic Income and would rather a Prorated Guaranteed Minimum Income. I do realize it would be more open to fraud, but I just cannot see something without means testing going into effect. I would also hope the thing pays out in daily amounts, as opposed to the once a month problem of our current payments.

I still believe there will be non-ai jobs. In the near term, I'm wondering what an industry / government acceptable certificate (trade program) would be for robot technician. The government could probably help a lot of job prospects if it banned companies from barring third-party service of robots.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#25
post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

What else can they do? With the new wave of AI and automation there will be no jobs left for people with below average intelligence. You will need more and more researchers and programmers but not everyone can do those jobs.

Make art, educate themselves, read books - but the reward mechanisms of those activities are much less stimulating than those of video games.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#26
Things can go many ways...

Once being supported by other humans is no longer a requirement for power, large portions of the population will be to the mercy of elites.

When that happens, it will be up to elites to decide what to do. They might be already deciding what to do (e.g: http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/press-release.html, item #9).

They can either:

1) decide that limits will need to be imposed on our demographics and start a plan of population control. if that population is not already in effect (zika?)

2) let the market regulate itself, pushing people into poverty and reducing their fertility and life expectancy.

3) be altruistic and ensure wealth for everyone.

Personally I think altruism will not be a thing. The planet has limits, and within a few generations we will be reaching our planet's carrying capacity, this in the context of major nations accumulating armament (e.g: https://youtu.be/YoC0Xcjko0A?t=28m16s, https://youtu.be/rXSh3ur5XnQ?t=1h16m26s).

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#27
We are approaching a level of technology which is not human-oriented but software-oriented: the crucial idea here is that the transition will be not about "jobs will be harder or require more intelligence" - its about the emergence of artificial labor pool that is inherently better, smarter and less demanding. There is no way to "retrain people" to compete with robots, there is only "retreat to segments" where automation hasn't arrived yet - a narrower subset of potential jobs(there are no magical 'new jobs' coming). Lets take for example Joe The Programmer as someone who doesn't fear being automated.: He is confident he can write software better than a program trained to do so, and all his life beliefs hinge on that idea. He could do a less mentally-challenging job - but they are all taken by robots and automatons, doing it at fraction of minimum wage. Suppose a neural-net generator emerges that can produce software from requirements and diagrams of the middle management types. At first its used only for the simplest, mind-numbing tasks or viewed as debug aid. It develops to covers creation of modular pieces of code and its code quality is superb. Now the time come and grown complex enough to create functional software by itself without human input. The management looks at it, and decides to cut down on their software division. Jobs in the segments become fewer and fewer. Joe The Programmer now has to retrain himself to do something the code generator can't do, or hasn't expanded to area yet. But with progress there is nothing left, the most complex software can be done with minimal bugs and without unreliable human programmers. Software proven itself much cheaper to maintain with minimal staff - even it will be eventually replaced by helper software. Joe The Programmer is now fired. Now that there is no need for much middle management, as there is little to manage: the company shrinks and becomes more productive. At ultimate point the key personnel/directors/Chief officers are replaced by expert systems trained with their domain knowledge and the company become a purely digital entity producing income for its owners or shareholders. There is no point adding human back in the chain, as it will reduce efficiency and increase complexity(labor laws, taxes, paper trails,etc).

What is key here, is we only lack the software..the hardware is here now. i.e. all this retraining/re-specialization of the labor market will not matter, when software will be also "re-trained"(neural nets, generic algorithms,general artificial intelligence ) much cheaper to do equivalent of a human mind-work. Now it simply a hardware problem: At X investment a machine would outperform similar X investment for a human worker/employee, with none of the extra needs/limitations/laws regulating labor. Obviously the result in mass poverty and breakdown of class-based society if there is no moderating factor: basic income becomes a necessity, not an option "to stabilize the economy" - without it there is no economy and no society(as even third-world countries depend on job(for a very liberal definition of a job) income existing).

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#28
post #4

So we can all play more video games: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/why-a... "Most of the blame for the struggle of male, less-educated workers has been attributed to lingering weakness in the economy, particularly in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing. Yet in the new research, economists from Princeton, the University of Rochester and the University of Chicago say that an additio…

> “When I play a game, I know if I have a few hours I will be rewarded,” he said. “With a job, it’s always been up in the air with the amount of work I put in and the reward.” This is stunning to me. I know that among the world, we in the US sometimes have a different work ethic. But video games coming up in this discussion of rewards per time invested is mind-boggling. > Happiness has gone up for this group, despite…

http://strikemag.org/bullshit-jobs/

There are definitely dead-end jobs that don't make you want to get out of bed in the morning. Maybe something like the CCC would help with the feeling of meaningful labor.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#29

At this point, I have grown sour on Guaranteed Basic Income and would rather a Prorated Guaranteed Minimum Income. I do realize it would be more open to fraud, but I just cannot see something without means testing going into effect. I would also hope the thing pays out in daily amounts, as opposed to the once a month problem of our current payments. I still believe there will be non-ai jobs. In the near term, I'm won…

The reason no-one wants means testing is that it adds a massive bureaucratic overhead to the system, which actually defies part of the point of basic income, which is to get rid of most other, costly to run, social programs.

Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income

#30
post #8
post #3

I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…

Gregory Clark's work on tracking English class mobility in the 1700s-1900 (The Son Also Rises & A Farewell to Alms) indicates that this isn't the first time this has happened (ie, the obsolescence of a large portion of the labor force), and that it's possible to manage the transition with a fairly minimal amount of law enforcement resources.

This time it's different. Our most valuable asset as workers is our minds, if AI can make inroads into white-collar work as well as blue-collar and pink-collar work, what will be left for humans to do? We're not just talking about low-skilled workers losing their jobs, we're also looking at previously safe jobs like doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc... due to be facing very strong competition from the growth of AI (both in terms of cost and aptitude).

If we do continue to work, the only scenario that makes any sense to me is if we do work for self-satisfaction rather than need. There's still going to be enjoyment to be had in refining skills and pursuing goals.

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