How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil • Hacker News Board

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#181

Post by bpolania » Sat, Sep 24, 2016, 7:15 PM UTC

jimmywanger wrote: post #146

jimmywanger wrote: post #83

Currency controls and price controls and government nationalization have destroyed Venezuela. Currency controls: there's a 1:10 exchange rate, dollars to bolivars, for essential imports, like food, medicine, etc. The black market exchange rate is about 1:1010. To get the good rate, you need connections. But hey, it's a pain in the ass to actually contact suppliers and get goods through customs, and you're capped at w…

Funny thing is that socialism tends to reject religion, but price controls originated in Christian thought. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_price What a lot of people don't realize is that prices aren't inherently good or bad in and of themselves, they just are . If somebody else is willing to pay 20k for a diamond, that's the price of a diamond. No amount of legislation or argument will drive down the price of a…

In Venezuela price control is not ideological is a stupid move to try to rein inflation.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#182

Post by bpolania » Sat, Sep 24, 2016, 7:16 PM UTC

optimuspaul wrote: post #86

jimmywanger wrote: post #83

Currency controls and price controls and government nationalization have destroyed Venezuela. Currency controls: there's a 1:10 exchange rate, dollars to bolivars, for essential imports, like food, medicine, etc. The black market exchange rate is about 1:1010. To get the good rate, you need connections. But hey, it's a pain in the ass to actually contact suppliers and get goods through customs, and you're capped at w…

I'm not sure that's how the black market works. I don't think I can exchange dollars for bolivars. That sounds like a losing proposition for the black market.

People who lives in Venezuela saves in US$ and exchange dollars for bolivars when they need liquidity in local currency.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#183

Post by bpolania » Sat, Sep 24, 2016, 7:22 PM UTC

cobbzilla wrote: post #72

Curious American asking any Venezuelans out there: how does this situation get any better? What do you look to for hope? I'm not familiar with the Venezuelan media perspective (any non-state-affiliated stations left?), but from here, it seems like there is no serious effort to change course; on the contrary Maduro seems to be driving ahead with the notion that, somehow, more of the poison will cure the patient. When…

First step is to reduce public spending and fight corruption, just very basic steps will bring significant improvement.

Then, welcome foreign and local investment: privatize most of the industries that were nationalized and are now idle, and fix labor laws a little, this also include liberalization of currency, enforce property laws so private companies feel safe investing in the long term.

When can this happen? As of today no sooner than 2019 when the next presidential elections will take place. Unless a coup is on the table but I don't see that happening.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#184

Post by bpolania » Sat, Sep 24, 2016, 7:27 PM UTC

DefaultUserHN wrote: post #170

kilroy123 wrote: post #117

What I don't understand is, how the hell are the leaders still in power? Why aren't people taking drastic action against this failed government? If people are literally not eating food, that's typically when there's a revolution. If I couldn't eat everyday and feed my family, I'd be out in the streets. Why not? You have nothing to lose at that point.

>Why aren't people taking drastic action against this failed government? They don't have the 2nd Amendment.

Venezuela doesn't have a 2nd amendment, but the lack of guns is certainly not the reason, if anything is the excess of guns in the street, what people in America don't understand is that the government will always be better armed than the population, Syria is a good example.

What keeps totalitarian governments is will to power, how much os the government willing to risk against the population. Owning a gun is not the same as being willing to die.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#185

Post by bpolania » Sat, Sep 24, 2016, 7:31 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #167

There are some crucial points missing from and/or obscured in this story. Yes, Venezuelay has run some massive social benefit programmes, including subsidising many standard goods, mosts especially fuel and food (both of which, on reflection are fuels), for years. So has virtually every other oil state. The situation in Venezuela devolves in large part, though not entirely exclusively, from: 1. The globally depressed…

Some of your point are consequences not causes. For example: the reason Venezuela is using the US imports as dilutants for its heavy oil is because bad management of the industry, it wasn't always like that, you can say the same about the debt, Venezuela is not screwed because of the debt, it has debt because it's screwed.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#186

Post by jimmywanger » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 3:53 AM UTC

bpolania wrote: post #183

cobbzilla wrote: post #72

Curious American asking any Venezuelans out there: how does this situation get any better? What do you look to for hope? I'm not familiar with the Venezuelan media perspective (any non-state-affiliated stations left?), but from here, it seems like there is no serious effort to change course; on the contrary Maduro seems to be driving ahead with the notion that, somehow, more of the poison will cure the patient. When…

First step is to reduce public spending and fight corruption, just very basic steps will bring significant improvement. Then, welcome foreign and local investment: privatize most of the industries that were nationalized and are now idle, and fix labor laws a little, this also include liberalization of currency, enforce property laws so private companies feel safe investing in the long term. When can this happen? As o…

I doubt it will happen in 2019, and this is why.

Maduro has painted himself into a corner. He has very nakedly announced that he will do everything in his power to remain in power, even if it means crapping all over the constitution, and stripping the legislative branch of all its power.

He'll figure something out in 2019. He has all the guns, and he know that if he falls out of power, he'll be strung up on the nearest lamppost like Mussolini. He's doubling down because he really has nowhere else to go. Once you realize that, that he has to do everything he's doing to cement the military to his side, it all makes perfect sense.