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Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

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Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#82
Can someone actually explain to me how the situation came to this point where it practically looks as if Twitter's fate is being decided and played out in the media via endless speculation? It is not like Twitter is a tiny company with an unknown brand, few users and no possibility of improving its profit margins. I am not aware of what they are trying to do, but at the same time it is not as if they could have exhausted all the possibilities. Remember Facebook's beacon? That failed, but FB still managed to repackage the same crap into something more lucrative didn't it? Is this just impatience from stockholders?

For example, let us just say, hypothetically, something really damaging comes out about FB (e.g. the news about the fake video view metrics) and advertisers start fleeing from it. Wouldn't Twitter be the beneficiary of at least some of that exodus? Do they really have no option of an end game?

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#83
post #22
post #5

I really can't see salesforce buying twitter. I think a social media giant would gain something from twitter, but not much else.

I think it makes a bit of sense. For a lot of companies Twitter is already a major point of customer interaction and retention. Maybe Salesforce feels like they could monetize that aspect of Twitter, with the advantage that a ton of consumers are already there and using it.

It will introduce a conflict of interest, where the side that has is paying Twitter.

The perception alone of a conflict means people will 'find' it all over the place and those examples to their bias until slowly and gradually no one will trust the service anymore. Even if Twitter never changes anything.

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#85
IMO, Twitter is the poster child for the tech bubble. They have users, which is their only claim to viability, but notably, they have never made a profit. Currently valued at around $10 billion with 350 million active users, that's about $29 per user. You'd be hard-pressed to find an investor so foolish that they would invest $29 in each of their users and hope to make it back if it were stated in those terms, but people have rushed to invest in a company which only has users, and whose attempts to monetize users through advertising have correlated strongly with loss of users. There can be little argument that Twitter's price has become entirely detached from its value.

That doesn't of course, mean you couldn't make money by investing in Twitter. You can make money by investing in overvalued companies as long as you don't hold onto your share until it busts. One profitable route would be if Twitter does get bought by a larger company. The market as a whole will lose on Twitter, but local maxima can be more profitable than the whole.

But at a personal level, don't be naive about this. A lot of people are investing, not just money, but time and energy, in Twitter or startups like Twitter. If you find yourself thinking that Twitter is a company with any real value, you should take a step back and evaluate whether you're being wise, or whether you've fallen prey to the unbridled optimism of the tech bubble. Twitter's position as poster child for the tech bubble makes it a good litmus test for people's understanding of the industry, and I suspect it will correlate very strongly with who loses everything when the tech bubble collapses.

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Twitter's backend is actually quite sophisticated. It's one thing to build a very small Twitter clone for you and your friends, it's quite another to scale that up to hundreds of millions of users and keep everything running smoothly.

But that's exactly what is what as the beginning. Twitter spent a significant amount of its early days sitting on the Fail Whale screen. Sure, now it's stable, when you throw a complete rewrite, and millions of dollars at it.

[deleted]

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#88
Salesforce feels like a bizarre choice, although I agree with their digital chief that "I love Twitter" personally.

I use twitter every day as my primary method of content discovery.

So at their core the BUSINESS should revolve around monetizing my eyeballs, eg advertising.

So to me it's Facebook or Google that should grab it, w/FB at the lead considering their relatively smooth / unhurried / and successful takeovers of whatsapp / instagram

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#89
post #24
post #6

Twitter should be a public utility.

That would be nice but who would pay for servers? I would love an "Open Twitter" built on standard protocols and implementable by anyone, however if SMTP and NNTP are any indication, most people prefer convenient silos over open solutions. And the reality of a hostile internet mean that there is a need for active resources devoted to protecting any service from abuse.

I've been thinking about how something like this could be done in a completely distributed way, I think I've even seen some research implementation of it. In any case, it'd be interesting...

Hmm... http://twister.net.co/ maybe? The biggest issue is going to be mobile, but if you have enough people firing it up on servers and stuff, you'd probably be okay. And then of course you realize that there's also the even bigger issue of actually getting people to use it. You're fucked there unless you have some serious marketing talent, which most people capable of writing such a thing in the first place lack.

Re: Twitter may receive formal bid, suitors said to include Salesforce and Google

#90
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought Orkut, killed it, tried Google Plus, went nowhere > Don't forget Buzz! That time when they default opted-in Gmail users into publishing a list of frequently contacted users on their google profile. Auto-follow was a terrible terrible idea.

And Wave.

The Wave technology also now powers a lot of the "collab" features in their Office suite. So the "product" died, but the capability found a home.
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