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Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

ycombinator.com

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Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#521

Some choice quotes: "Do you think people who want to be useful should get a PhD?" "Umm... Mostly not." "Sometimes it [technology] gets worse... In '69 we were able to go to the moon.. Then the space shuttle could only take people to LEO, then the space shuttle retired... That trends to zero. People think technology automatically gets better every year but it actually doesn't, it gets better if smart people work like…

That was the statement that was most impactful to me.

"What really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. That is at least 2 orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself."

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#522
post #473
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much every company relies on government subsidies of some form or another. (Cheap transportation infrastructure and a workforce partially or entirely educated via the public school system are two of the larger subsidies governments provide.) Taxpayers generally don't have a problem with that when those subsidies are a net benefit to society.

Yeah, but this is taken to the extreme. I mean, Tesla isn't currently profitable and they are relying on subsidies to just stay afloat. We're talking billions of dollars of government cash flowing into Tesla/SpaceX to keep them from going bankrupt. You can't tell me it's the same for other car companies because it's simply not true.

I've read that GM received a taxpayer funded cash infusion of around $49 billion around 2009-10. I've also read that after the Treasury sold it's last shares of GM the final loss to taxpayers was somewhere in the $9.5-$10 billion range. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think Tesla's subsidies have ever reached that level. I believe Tesla is staying afloat largely due to investor capital, or am I incorrect?

Disclosure: I work at SpaceX as a technician so I may be biased.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#523
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Affect like how? As of today they're useless, except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before.

He is quite correct that societies can go backwards. There are many scenarios in which we would have 'the tech' and then end up abandoning and losing it. One simple example would be if one corporation profited more by wrecking 'the tech' of another and blocking its adoption, than the other could profit by furthering it. When it all comes down to money you get those suboptimal outcomes, and in the end somebody cashed…

Yes. Example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_con...

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.

I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book: That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event. I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about that, Musk has that effect on some of the best people, and his effect, due to his status, is very strong. I'm actually highly concerned about Musk's overall effect on society, specifically due to the kind of people he'll have that effect on.

I don't understand why you would be concerned and not elated by his effect on society. Tech has been stuck for 40 years in most major industries, and in a time when it seems impossible to overcome the entrenched incumbents of those industries, here comes a person who shows us that it is in fact possible. Now people have hope that our future will be decided not by frail, unmoving conglomerates, but instead by nimble a…

I want to respond to you, because you seem to view Musk as obviously great. And you know, how could someone not like him? I can tell you there's something about him that rubs me the wrong way. Maybe it's because his only big success is Paypal, which you can argue was him being in the right place at the right time. All his other ventures, while more grandiose, have not yet been super successful. So I don't feel like he deserves a lot of the hero-worship he gets. And certain things, rockets exploding and his Tesla autopilot causing fatalities, make it seem like his companies are cutting corners and not actually great companies.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#528
post #524
post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People still buy plenty of Fords. Far, far more Fords than Teslas. What are you taking about?

Not in my country.

Where exactly do you live? A quick search indicates that Tesla is outselling Ford in Norway. If you live in Norway, then astazangasta is correct and you're looking at a symptom of income inequality. Norway is rather wealthy even by Western standards.

Tesla has done a great job of dressing up a status symbol as an environmentally friendly choice. (Or vice versa.)

If you look at the poorer citizens in your country, you'll likely find no Teslas, and few electric cars in general.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why you would be concerned and not elated by his effect on society. Tech has been stuck for 40 years in most major industries, and in a time when it seems impossible to overcome the entrenched incumbents of those industries, here comes a person who shows us that it is in fact possible. Now people have hope that our future will be decided not by frail, unmoving conglomerates, but instead by nimble a…

I want to respond to you, because you seem to view Musk as obviously great. And you know, how could someone not like him? I can tell you there's something about him that rubs me the wrong way. Maybe it's because his only big success is Paypal, which you can argue was him being in the right place at the right time. All his other ventures, while more grandiose, have not yet been super successful. So I don't feel like h…

Thanks for the response.

Elon definitely is not a fluke like you imply. He is not the best eng but it is his relentless work ethic (read: no other timesink in his life at all) that puts him above the others. Have you ever worked more than 100hrs a week? I don't even think I've managed it once but Elon does it every week. To admire elon, you must first understand what that means.

You say he has only had one successful venture but before Paypal he sold his company Zip2 to Compaq for some 300M. Then he started x.com, which only later merged with Peter and max's company. Elons x.com brought more than 50% of the staff. This means that he was a huge component in Paypals success no way you cut it.

We have established that he is no fluke, now lets examine your criticisms of Tesla and SpaceX and why you should not have them at all. Tesla is not perfect but there is absolutely, 100%, no other way to have sustainable transport than electric cars. Even if Tesla used child labour with huge workplace accident rates, you should still support them, because no matter how you cut it, we will destroy our atmosphere permanently without huge electric car adoption. Nevermind all of the other parts of the power industry that are hugely polluting.

On to SpaceX. They are saving taxpayers millions of dollars every year by allowing governments to cut satellite launch costs by 4x over Boeing or Lockheed.

In short:

Elon is not a fluke and has super human work ethic Tesla is our one shot at everyone not dying en masse by the time I'm in 40s (head in the sand if it soothes you but thats the case) SpaceX saves millions of taxpayer dollars every year.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why you would be concerned and not elated by his effect on society. Tech has been stuck for 40 years in most major industries, and in a time when it seems impossible to overcome the entrenched incumbents of those industries, here comes a person who shows us that it is in fact possible. Now people have hope that our future will be decided not by frail, unmoving conglomerates, but instead by nimble a…

Because the message of "only superhumans who work 80 hour weeks can accomplish great things" is not the kind of effect I want on society. We have enough of that as it is. We need less of it, not more. Does it not concern you that tech has been stuck for 40 years? That space has been stuck for however many years? Despite all this hard work everywhere? I'd rather resolve those problems at the core than address the symp…

>"only superhumans who work 80 hour weeks can accomplish great things" is not the kind of effect I want on society. We have enough of that as it is. We need less of it, not more.

I don't think you know what you're talking about here. Let me explain why 80 hours a week is a good thing.

At large, people lead lives of quiet struggle against forces they do not understand. They continue this because they are in a local minimum of daily energy expenditure, and like simulated anealling, you stay stuck unless you keep putting in more energy. Women return to husbands that beat them because that's their local minimum, even though they have the option of returning to the dating pool, moving out, creating a new social circle: These tasks are putting energy into their lives so that they might arrive at a new minimum with a value much lower than the previous minimum. You could say that they are better off for it, thanks to the energy put in.

She puts in more energy, then she ends up closer to the global minimum.

This can be applied to society. If people are relaxed as they are today, they are probably in a local minimum and not the global minimum. But in some form, analogously, the wife beating continues, and we simply rationalize it like you have shown here, and we continue.

I am 22. I assume you're in your 30s/40s. We have no future, my friend, and it's thanks to collective 'shrugging it off' decade after decade since WW2. I won't accept that, and you should not either. You are making up silly excuses to protect yourself from the truth which is 'Wow, America really does need this man, and he truly is doing great things'.

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