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In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

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Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#81

a fantastic article and wonderful to have a calm conversation on the topic. I can not fault anything in the article but I would add that immigrants also bring dynamism and new ideas to the country. Not necessarily of economic value but certainly of value. For example the relative greater openness and tolerance levels of the cities with larger immigrant populations might have become that way because of their arrival.…

> For example the relative greater openness and tolerance levels of the cities with larger immigrant populations might have become that way because of their arrival. Looking at European cities with larger immigrant populations, "greater openness and tolerance" isn't exactly what comes to mind to describe the situation.

Seems a bit unfair. Look at cities like London or Zurich. Very high immigrant populations, and the population is comfortable with that.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#82
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most liberals, I guess, were ignoring the problem you have described even during the Brexit. [1] I recall this Sam Harris piece [2] in this respect. [1] most liberals are forcing the natives to tolerate even the intolerances that the immigrants are bringing with themselves due to their cultures [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YCWf0tHy7M

I think what terrifies me the most, that genuinely keeps me up at night, is not wars or pandemics, but powerlessness in the face of a steady inexplicable decline that nobody can really understand. That I find scary, because it has actually happened, and I suspect a complex systems collapse (the technical term) is by far our greatest threat.

You might worry too much.

One of the most fascinating conspiracy theories I ever encountered postulates that the dark ages never happened. That is, this vast decline of the Roman Empire and ensuing centuries of neglect and intellectual emptiness (which inspires most contemporary worrying about the decline of great civilisations) was not a real thing at all but rather an artifact of how we've dated historical events.

The theory itself is very large, complicated, and weakened considerably by its original authors attempt to re-build his own completely different historical timeline after spending most of his theory on showing how we really have very little idea of what was going on before about 1000 AD.

But the gist of it is that as you go further and further back, history stops being a coherent timeline of events and starts being a series of snapshots with only rather weak signals used to arrange them and order them. Many of those signals are calibrated against each other, and often evidence that throws doubt on the 'consensus timeline' (as he calls it) is simply discarded, ignored, dismissed as a mistake by the original authors of the material or just written off as a mystery.

Just one example among many: Athens is hardly mentioned in works we believe were written during the dark ages, even in books written by people who travelled in the region. On the few occasions that it merits a mention it's described as if it were a small village of no particular importance. But the history books would have us believe that at this time Athens contained the vast ruins of a once great civilisation. It seems very strange that explorers and travellers who wrote about their adventures in that part of the world somehow just systematically forgot to visit Athens, of all places.

The theory explains this by suggesting that the construction of the great works in Athens have been misdated quite significantly, and the reason these works don't mention things like the Parthenon is because at the time they were written, these things hadn't been built yet. It claims that many of the things we assume are now ancient and separated from our world by centuries of abandonment and decline are actually early medieval in origin.

Anyway, fascinating theory, if only because there's so much potential for hole poking and resultant learning. The debunkings I found on the internet were rather weaker than I had expected and ever since I've been curious as to what exactly was supposed to have created and then ended this mysterious centuries-long "decline".

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#83
I'm an economic immigrant- I work and live in a different country (the UK) than the one I was born, and brought up, in (Greece).

Immigration is singled out as an issue because of its emotional impact (and that impact is greatly amplified by the political debate that feeds off it).

Every other aspect of our common life has the ability to hurt some peoples' bottom line and benefit that of others'. That's politics in a nutshell: when some social condition changes, some groups benefit and some others stand to lose.

But then, why is losing out to immigrants more of an issue than losing out to local competition? Why would you be more upset if a foreigner gets your job than if a local does? The issue is that someone else got your job- that's the bit that hurts you. That the person is foreign may be adding insult to injury, but kicking all the bloody foreigners out is not magically going to give you the skills you need to do the job you currently can't. It's not going to make it more profitable for an employer to hire you at a higher wage if you have the skills to do the job, either.

A lot more could be achieved on the immigration front if countries spent all that energy towards training their local workforce better.

But let's not also forget that when a foreign worker is paid less for more work his or her intersts are also harmed- better enforced labour legislation is to the benefit of all workers.

As to the natural effect of prices coming down for all when there's more of a workforce- on the one hand that can be addressed partially by a better trained workforce (which is mroe productive and can therefore afford to ask for better wages). On the other hand, maybe we can agree that once the market for a given skill is saturated, the price of that skill is the closest possible to the true value of the skill.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#84
post #46

The article quantifies the major cost of increased immigration as "the earnings of [high school dropouts] dropped by between $800 and $1,500 each year." It describes the benefits to immigrants as "Immigrants, too, gain substantially; their total earnings far exceed what their income would have been had they not migrated." To take a specific example, maids in India make about $3 a day. If they had the opportunity to m…

>> Again I don't really see how this is a difficult ethical decision.

I upvoted your comment but I don't agree with the last half of it. I feel that the Indian programmer should be paid as much as any local programmer for the same amount of work at a comparable quality. If she's doing more of it, she should be paid more. [1]

The idea is that, as you say, moving to a richer country with a higher standard of living is a net gain, but the people who already live there benefit from this higher standard of living plus they get the higher wages on top. So the worker from the poorer place is still being taken advantage of.

Ideally, you'd hire workers on their skills alone and not be able to pay lower wages, but that's very hard to enforce.

[1] I've worked at places where contractors, the vast majority of them from India, were doing 2/3s of the work, yet they were paid less than everyone else. They were paid more than myself, even though I was a foreigner also. It upset me and it's one reason why the company in question never had my loyalty, and I was not happy working for it.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#85
>> Once we understand immigration this way, it’s clear why the issue splits Americans—why many low-skilled native workers are taking one side, and why immigrants and businesses are taking another.

Is it really that clear? I don't doubt that the businesses know which side their bread is buttered, so to speak, but does the majority of low-skilled native workers have the same data, and the ability to draw the same conclusions from it, as the article author?

Intuitively, I'd think that the public at large is much less well informed than economists, or businesses even, and that the intensity of the debate is largely due to the inflamed rhetoric on both ends of the issue.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paying Canadians $120K / year instead of paying Americans $140K / year is a 'thing' - but it's not the issue we're really concerned about. Wage depression among masses of low-skilled workers is a very serious problem. Wage issues in the top 10% is another dynamic entirely. H1 abuse is actually concentrated in companies like Infosys and Tata - they are Indian companies who just want to bring in cheaper people from Ind…

I totally agree! If we're not ending H1-B, then at the very least, InfoSys and Tata should be banned from participating. IMHO: In addition to being socially destructive for American workers, H1-B has essentially become a trade route for Indian workers to come to the US. I think most Americans know that we're not getting the best and the brightest from India. If we're bringing in 60k foreign workers per year, and ~80%…

H1 is mostly a good thing for America. Like anything, it has a bad side.

Also, I do generally think that Tata is choosing the 'best people they can' from India. But again, it's a question of numbers and scale.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#87
post #46

The article quantifies the major cost of increased immigration as "the earnings of [high school dropouts] dropped by between $800 and $1,500 each year." It describes the benefits to immigrants as "Immigrants, too, gain substantially; their total earnings far exceed what their income would have been had they not migrated." To take a specific example, maids in India make about $3 a day. If they had the opportunity to m…

Borjas does not make ethical arguments or attempt to tell people what they should do, he only lays out the choices and some possible answers. If you start from the assumption that everyone in the world is born equal and all deserve equal opportunities then the correct solution is to drop your nation's borders entirely. No borders at all, anyone can come. Germany basically tried that and lasted less than a year before…

You should read about colonialism. India and South Korea had wildly different histories. The equivication that you draw bears little relation to reality.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#88

I'm an economic immigrant- I work and live in a different country (the UK) than the one I was born, and brought up, in (Greece). Immigration is singled out as an issue because of its emotional impact (and that impact is greatly amplified by the political debate that feeds off it). Every other aspect of our common life has the ability to hurt some peoples' bottom line and benefit that of others'. That's politics in a…

>why is losing out to immigrants more of an issue than losing out to local competition?

The trouble is that the laws, in the US at least, are set up and (not) enforced in such a way as to advantage people coming from abroad. The H1-B is a good example. Employers want H1-Bs because they can lower wages (through job title manipulation and increasing the pool of available workers), while essentially handcuffing the employee to them. This isn't really fair competition. The local employee didn't lose because of being inadequate, they lost because of external forces making it extremely difficult to compete.

Personally, I'm all for making legal immigration and naturalization a much easier and faster process, but I also want some of these weird visas done away with. They want to move here, let them come, but don't game the system to the detriment of local workers, and to some extent the immigrant, though they'll likely be living better than where they came from, but not as well as they should be.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#89

I'm an economic immigrant- I work and live in a different country (the UK) than the one I was born, and brought up, in (Greece). Immigration is singled out as an issue because of its emotional impact (and that impact is greatly amplified by the political debate that feeds off it). Every other aspect of our common life has the ability to hurt some peoples' bottom line and benefit that of others'. That's politics in a…

> That's politics in a nutshell: when some social condition changes, some groups benefit and some others stand to lose

Perhaps, but there are many, many things that are 'positive sum games', some that are zero sum games, and some that are negative sum games. Immigration is generally a positive sum game, writ large.

Re: In the current immigration debate, neither side is revealing the whole picture

#90
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Borjas does not make ethical arguments or attempt to tell people what they should do, he only lays out the choices and some possible answers. If you start from the assumption that everyone in the world is born equal and all deserve equal opportunities then the correct solution is to drop your nation's borders entirely. No borders at all, anyone can come. Germany basically tried that and lasted less than a year before…

You should read about colonialism. India and South Korea had wildly different histories. The equivication that you draw bears little relation to reality.

I've read an entire book on the history of the British Empire. I'm well aware of the differences. South Korea suffered far more brutal treatment than India did: Korea was conquered by the Japanese who are still notorious today throughout Asia for their rampant brutality in war, then it was cleaved in two by a communist revolution. Compared to that an organised handover of power from the colonials to home rule is a stroll through a grassy meadow.
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