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Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

nytimes.com

21–30 of 73 posts

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#21
post #15

Will the US see large engineering works this century to prevent flooding? Large stretches of Florida have quite alot of property right on the sea barely above sea level, would these property owners demand protection?

Florida is already seeing lots of sinkholes because of the geography - it's build on porous limestone which erodes easily. There's probably not much chance of saving florida.

>These tidal floods are often just a foot or two deep, but they can stop traffic, swamp basements, damage cars, kill lawns and forests, and poison wells with salt.

Is the wellwater seepage the biggest problem? Guessing the other things in the list could be fixed with lots of money and infrastructure.

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#22
post #3

As I wrote in HN's dialog about a New York Magazine article on global warming https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12471815 : As usual, nothing about prevention. Global temperatures and the sea level are rising because of human behavior. If we want different results, we have to behave differently. Engineers and scientists know engineering and science but not so much leading people to change their behavior. It's easy…

I know this sounds a bit Ayn Rand, but almost all scientists, engineers, and computer scientists know that global warming is real and is happening. Can we not just all go on strike until the dumb or greedy people get shoved aside? Like, granted, there was some pretty effective misinformation back in 2008, but the science is completely settled now. The public benefits from our medicines and software and infrastructure and from our higher than normal taxes, but they don't trust us when it comes to changing their behaviour. Like I'm at my wits end when I talk to climate change deniers these days.

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#24
post #2

> Local governments, under pressure from annoyed citizens, are beginning to act. Elections are being won on promises to invest money to protect against flooding. Interesting. I do recall that in 2012, North Carolina's House Bill 819 prohibited the state's Coastal Resources Commission from calculating sea-level changes using recent data.

Hopefully bill != law?

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#25
post #3

As I wrote in HN's dialog about a New York Magazine article on global warming https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12471815 : As usual, nothing about prevention. Global temperatures and the sea level are rising because of human behavior. If we want different results, we have to behave differently. Engineers and scientists know engineering and science but not so much leading people to change their behavior. It's easy…

I don't understand the emphasis on air travel I frequently see in these discussions.

Passenger planes are much more fuel efficient per passenger-mile than single-occupancy cars. Most people drive far more miles alone each year than they travel by plane. It makes no sense to me to criticize someone for flying a couple thousand miles at ~100MPG when the average American drives 12,000 miles per year at ~25MPG.

Beyond that, I don't see how refraining from individually polluting activities will help to enact the laws and treaties we need to make a real difference. It's a collective action problem, and those aren't solved by having individuals with strong beliefs alter their own habits to match what they want, they're solved by having individuals with strong beliefs convince everybody to change their habits.

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#26
post #3

As I wrote in HN's dialog about a New York Magazine article on global warming https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12471815 : As usual, nothing about prevention. Global temperatures and the sea level are rising because of human behavior. If we want different results, we have to behave differently. Engineers and scientists know engineering and science but not so much leading people to change their behavior. It's easy…

I know this sounds a bit Ayn Rand, but almost all scientists, engineers, and computer scientists know that global warming is real and is happening. Can we not just all go on strike until the dumb or greedy people get shoved aside? Like, granted, there was some pretty effective misinformation back in 2008, but the science is completely settled now. The public benefits from our medicines and software and infrastructure…

I've thought about the strike thing for sometime also, why do we keep propping these people up?

The kind of action you're describing is inevitable IMO. Humans may have to go on mass strike until we get the correct Government action on climate change.

Sadly, strikes might not even be required/optional soon due to impacted health from rising temperatures, air pollution and difficulty commuting.

I'm currently living in Amsterdam now, it's Autumn and it's as hot as Sydney in summer, 30+ C. Bridges are getting stuck and stopping trams which then need to be hosed down with cool water constantly to keep them from ceasing up etc, little things like this along will have a major impact on everyone's pockets and forget getting a good nights sleep in an apartment which is designed for temperatures no higher than 24C. Goodbye productivity.

In the middle of heatwaves in Sydney (reaching 40+ celsius), I've watched people struggling on trains that are delayed due to issues with infrastructure, robbed of proper sleep from the extreme temperatures, heading off to participate in jobs, supporting industries which are clearly the cause of our sleepless nights (major banks, energy resource companies etc).

I often would think to myself, why bother? If the end goal is such devastating destruction and suffering? Why not stop and get out priorities straight before getting back to work? Economies are great, jobs are awesome, fossil fuels and deforestation isn't and they're no longer required to run a model civilization and healthy economy.

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#27
post #2

> Local governments, under pressure from annoyed citizens, are beginning to act. Elections are being won on promises to invest money to protect against flooding. Interesting. I do recall that in 2012, North Carolina's House Bill 819 prohibited the state's Coastal Resources Commission from calculating sea-level changes using recent data.

Hopefully bill != law?

It actually became law, because the governor, who could have vetoed it or at least put up a fight, chose to do nothing.

Re: Flooding of US Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun

#28
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to give some examples of the leadership in behavioral change you'd like to see? I personally doubt anything save huge taxes on gasoline are going to do anything to change behavior. You can decry driving by people still need to get to work. Laws are the only drivers of change so massive. We're fighting over oil pipelines to pump more oil for use, not which green energy gets tax breaks. And even with out…

I think government will change slowly so I expect laws will follow social change. People born today will have to face the environmental change that past generations heard would happen but they knew they'd die before the worst of it. As an increasing percent of the population cares, and can see the change, we'll see change anyway, maybe people will see SUVs and flying all the time like smoking. I don't know politics,…

If you don't know politics, then maybe you should learn, because the solution you are looking for is entirely political. That is to say, the solution is the creation of economic incentives that can only be structured and imposed through government power.

Yes, people need to believe that the effects of climate change will affect their lives. Laws do follow social change, in that laws that go against entrenched special interests cannot be passed unless failing to pass them becomes entirely unacceptable to a significant majority of the voting population.

But you are tilting at windmills if you think that convincing people to change their behaviors unilaterally is going to make any difference in climate change. Let's say I'm one of those people who gets on a plane every week to meet with clients. I'm not going to stop doing that because I feel an ethical obligation to prevent climate change; if I did stop, I would just be giving up that business to my competition who doesn't have any of my ethical compunctions.

You are also asking too much from ordinary people if you expect them to modify their personal consumption decisions. Maybe you can get people (in the first world) to stop eating so many hamburgers because beef production is so carbon intensive. Maybe you can get people (again, in the first world) to drive hybrid cars. But how many people are you going to convince of the overriding ethics of your position such that they will act against their own self interest (economic, cultural, social, familial)? Not enough to do what is necessary. And even those people who accept and follow these ethics are not going to have the detailed information required to make environmentally-friendly decisions throughout their lives. It's the same problem experienced with command economies: without a reliable price signal to base purchasing decisions on, counter-productive decisions (decisions that result in more carbon pollution instead of less) will be common.

The only behavioral solution to climate change is a universal carbon tax (which would of course supersede any current carbon subsidies that would need to be repealed). Only a carbon tax will allow corporations to reduce their carbon footprint without worrying about giving ground to their competition. Only a carbon tax will cause ordinary consumers to change their behavior without expecting them to completely re-vamp their ideologies and value systems. And a carbon tax can only be implemented politically.

You site smoking as an example of how focusing on changing public views can be effective. Look at the history, though. Although there had been a gradual long-term decline in adult smoking, student smoking had been climbing significantly in the US until 1998 [0], when a settlement between the tobacco companies and 46 state governments forced the tobacco companies to basically abandon the US market [1]. This demonstrates both that the demand for smoking was being propped up by corporate propaganda, and that only activism with an agenda focused on a specific litigation strategy was ever going to be effective at fighting it.

The other great example is the civil rights movement in the US. Did Martin Luther King set out to end racism in the United States? No, social change at that level would have been laughable. Civil rights leaders had very specific legislative and judicial objectives: to end state tolerance of segregation, guarantee universal suffrage, end ensure de facto equal treatment of blacks under the law. All of the activism, outreach, protest, and public-relations efforts were orchestrated and timed to maximize their effect on those specific outcomes. Broad changes in public attitudes towards race have distantly lagged the legislative and litigative successes of the civil rights movements; I believe that it was changes in the law that created the space required for attitudes to change.

Leadership is essential, but the kind of leadership we need is leadership that organizes people around narrow, actionable, and feasible legislative and judicial objectives. You are right to identify "reducing subsidies to polluting industries" as a worthwhile political objective, as well as "accounting for externalities of pollution". If you count yourself a leader fighting climate change, though, these policies cannot just be something that other people worry about. They need to be the specific and central focus of your entire effort.

[0] http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/cig...

[1] http://publichealthlawcenter.org/topics/tobacco-control/toba...

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