Decentralized insurance using prediction markets and game theory
1–4 of 4 posts
Re: Decentralized insurance using prediction markets and game theory
#2I'm always worried when people want to base real-world decisions on prediction markets.
It sounds silly, but they only work on things that are in fact predictable:
Probability of a bike being stolen: Okay.
Major conflict that kills more than 10 million people in the next 10 years: [Might as well read tea leaves](https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-the-...)
The problem of figuring out the probabilities in the first scenario is so tractable that the use of a prediction market becomes almost pointless. The only advantage the market has over a data processing algorithm (or even just [bob](http://intheoreum.org/#whatis)) is that it can react quicker to changes in the external world, say when a market participant goes out stealing bikes...
Re: Decentralized insurance using prediction markets and game theory
#3I'm always worried when people want to base real-world decisions on prediction markets. It sounds silly, but they only work on things that are in fact predictable: Probability of a bike being stolen: Okay. Major conflict that kills more than 10 million people in the next 10 years: [Might as well read tea leaves]( https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-the-... ) The problem of figuring out the probabi…
I agree, but not sure that these (prediction markets) are an interesting trend to keep an eye on in the world of digital currency.
Two more that come to mind: http://bitcoinhivemind.com https://www.augur.net/
Re: Decentralized insurance using prediction markets and game theory
#4I'm always worried when people want to base real-world decisions on prediction markets. It sounds silly, but they only work on things that are in fact predictable: Probability of a bike being stolen: Okay. Major conflict that kills more than 10 million people in the next 10 years: [Might as well read tea leaves]( https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-the-... ) The problem of figuring out the probabi…
I agree, but not sure that these (prediction markets) are an interesting trend to keep an eye on in the world of digital currency. Two more that come to mind: http://bitcoinhivemind.com https://www.augur.net/
The Augur project is meant to be going live next week. It's already been tested. Also its creator Joey just got a Thiel Fellowship awarded ($100k) http://chicagoinno.streetwise.co/2016/06/30/meet-joey-krug-t...