Elon Musk on How to Build the Future • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#441

Post by saiya-jin » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 8:28 AM UTC

Paul_S wrote: post #278

iMuzz wrote: post #2

Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

What about all the people working in marketing, software patent lawyers, drug dealers? You want them to quit their jobs? --- Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a bett…

Now this is an insult to number of jobs which are chosen by skilled enough to get better paid jobs but they won't. Examples - doctors & nurses, most people in disaster orgs like Red Cross, Doctors without Frontiers etc. and I am sure many other types of jobs out there (corporate vs creative job, anybody?)

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#442

Post by davidivadavid » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 8:29 AM UTC

AstralStorm wrote: post #428

maroonblazer wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Segmenting a market, analyzing user needs, determining optimal pricing and developing effective messaging (among other things) is wasteful...how?

Segmenting a market is often suboptimal. See how Intel is "segmenting" their CPU market by hard locking features in "consumer" CPUs. This effectively means they are not available unless you pay big big money.

Why is that suboptimal? It certainly is suboptimal for consumers in the short run, since it helps Intel increase producer surplus. How that producer surplus is used to create better technology has a pretty important role in determining whether it's optimal in the longer run.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#443

Post by thesmok » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 8:53 AM UTC

rpedela wrote: post #378

I would be far more interested in how to build a successful business. Everyone asks Elon about his big ideas, but how do you turn those big ideas into reality, specifically? I have never seen anyone ask him those questions. I thoroughly enjoyed the interview with Jessica Livingston because that was the primary topic. A missed opportunity in my opinion. I hope the rest of the interviews are more about the nuts and bol…

Have you read the big feature about him on WBW? http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-m...

I think that's exactly what you're interested in.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

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Post by pms » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:21 AM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #384

rpedela wrote: post #378

I would be far more interested in how to build a successful business. Everyone asks Elon about his big ideas, but how do you turn those big ideas into reality, specifically? I have never seen anyone ask him those questions. I thoroughly enjoyed the interview with Jessica Livingston because that was the primary topic. A missed opportunity in my opinion. I hope the rest of the interviews are more about the nuts and bol…

The way I see it PayPal essentially helped an established incumbent monopoly (US credit card companies) with issues at the time maintain and extend its global relevance, lock down domination of cross-border consumer payments, meaningfully extend US intelligence sector surveillance, and continue to fuck the little guy. Only Europe and China are building a resistance now, 15 years later. That you have 5 or 10 rich peop…

It sounds interesting. Could you give some pointers to read more about this?

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

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Post by codecamper » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:23 AM UTC

Elon says we must be careful to get AI right.

However, the value of his company is already based on the premise of self driving cars.

Self driving cars will cause a pretty massive shift in the world. I'm all for it & really think that most people suck at driving. However...

I have a hard time following his advice of getting AI right while is plan is to profit immensely from AI.

Maybe his moral compass is telling him that AI will cause problems, but better to have a seat at the table once the oncoming deluge hits.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#446

Post by rhaps0dy » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:36 AM UTC

codecamper wrote: post #445

Elon says we must be careful to get AI right. However, the value of his company is already based on the premise of self driving cars. Self driving cars will cause a pretty massive shift in the world. I'm all for it & really think that most people suck at driving. However... I have a hard time following his advice of getting AI right while is plan is to profit immensely from AI. Maybe his moral compass is telling him…

The term AI has two somewhat separate meanings and you're equivocating. Which is unsurprising, given that Musk himself is not saying anything to separate them.

Anyways. The AI we must be careful with is "strong AI", that is, human level in all or most intellectual endeavours.

The AI he will profit with is "weak AI", or the current and foreseeable AI technology. We don't need to be careful with that one, but not as much. It is industrial-equipment level of careful.

Strong AI needs nuclear ICBM levels of careful, maybe even more.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#447

Post by piedradura » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:37 AM UTC

thr0waway1239 wrote: post #420

metaphorm wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.

I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book: That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event. I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#448

Post by tonyedgecombe » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:39 AM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #140

guelo wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Au contraire, people that know the technology and industry can see through the PR much more clearly.

Bullshit. Two of the three items on the GP's list have already been done and complainers seem to be in denial about that. Startup industry is a great place to find tons of PR bullshit though, so I wonder if this isn't people projecting their own guilt...

"Bullshit"

That was rather rude.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

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Post by piedradura » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 9:39 AM UTC

mrdmnd wrote: post #264

piedradura wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.

Estimating this is probably futile, but in principle, I agree.

A viability study is not something to reject.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#450

Post by anantzoid » Fri, Sep 16, 2016, 10:04 AM UTC

schwarrrtz wrote: post #416

rpedela wrote: post #378

I would be far more interested in how to build a successful business. Everyone asks Elon about his big ideas, but how do you turn those big ideas into reality, specifically? I have never seen anyone ask him those questions. I thoroughly enjoyed the interview with Jessica Livingston because that was the primary topic. A missed opportunity in my opinion. I hope the rest of the interviews are more about the nuts and bol…

the biography by Vance covers the early Zip2 / X.com / PayPal stuff pretty well. would recommend.

Unfortunately, it only covers about Musk till his Paypal days. From Chapter 5 about SpaceX, he just has a guest appearance in the story, which mostly goes to describe the factories, the deals etc. I really expected the book to hold what Elon thought during Tesla's low times. His motivation that kept him going in SpaceX even after subsequent crashes etc.