I kept looking for the /s tag but couldn't see it.
> Half of a coder's value is understanding "unspoken" requirements.
Certainly a great deal of what you pay for in a more senior engineer is that ability to see around corners. I disagree entirely with your assessment that this ability is anything narrower than domain-specific (i.e. it extends only so far as 'an experienced software engineer' not so far as 'an experienced photo sharing app engineer').
> The current 40's-ish coders have their own industry experience to fall back on. The next generation of coders that will have nothing but 15secOfFame-centric jobs will have nothing to fall back on as younger 15msOfFame-centric things come in.
To assert this with any credibility (the assertion: previous generations software engineers can fall back into 'steady' jobs because they have expertise in staple products; new generation won't be able to because they don't) you have to have some sort of evidence. Plenty of junior and midweight engineers hop from bank => startup and vice versa. Why would the same not be true of senior engineers? If you specialise in cryptography does it matter whether you're applying it for British Airways or Snapchat?
> At some point we'll have to recognize coding as an NFL-style career.
Why? What evidence supports this conclusion?
> Get what you can while you can; you'll be a car salesman soon enough. Granted NFL players have 100x the pay plus public visibility that can help them after they retire.
If you fail to keep your skills current then yes, you will have a short career. I know many software engineers who are three decades into their career. They're hard-working and enthusiastic. They keep their skills up to date.
An adjacent point: having read The 100 Year Life, it's clear to me that in 20 years our job market will be different to the one we see today. Salary will likely be heavily decoupled from age and closely linked to merit. As older people get healthier relative to previous generations, they will be able to work productively for longer. It's therefore both more necessary for them to keep current and invest in themselves in order to maintain income parity, but also more possible for them to do so (because instead of having hip operations at 60, they can attend J2EE2: No This Time We Mean It, It's Going To Be Huge summer camp).