Live data from Hacker News

This Bubble's Got Legs

bloomberg.com

81–90 of 131 posts

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#81

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

> First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

My advice to you is 1) Diversify 2) Stop trying to outsmart the market.

These things are cyclical in nature and it can be difficult for individual players to 1) buy on the low end of the cycle and 2) sell on the high end.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#82
post #56

According to the OP, we have a global "central-bank-led cash bubble" powered by "an ever flowing money hose." If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping…

I believe this is a generation thing. Generation Y grew up with so many crisis and terror attacks, its just naturally everyone is hording their cash. Also a lot of people want to stay independent and mobile so they are not (yet) settling down.

Honestly, please find me a generation that hasn't had to hear about one crisis after another. First world Gen Y'ers haven't seen nothing when you really look at it.

I think this is easily explained by economics alone: We're "printing money", only for the bulk of it to end up in fewer hands. Gen Y has no sense of future solvency based upon the miserly behavior of their parents and grandparents. Who basically were handed everything and decided really it was all theirs and no one else's. That their offspring should go out and rebuild the world again, while they hang onto all the useful capital. It's theirs, they did it on their own!

It makes sense for Gen Y to hang onto everything, cause really they have very little. At least, much less than their parents did. I don't have the link, but a study recently suggested Gen Y is going to make nearly $100k less over their lives than Gen X.

A ridiculous sense of entitlement is the problem when you're talking about the problems with our economy. Some how providing basic broadband service to everyone is not a right, never mind the real value it would bring to people that need it most (with bullshit arguments about how it's hard to run wires across the country. Was easy enough to build these giant concrete freeways though!). But being wealthy enough to own 7 homes and two dozen exotic cars is. Somehow, releasing a new iPhone every 12 months is a necessity (and all the efforts that make it happen). But the much smaller chore of proper mental health services are not. Somehow releasing a barely improved fleet of modern cars every year is a necessity. Basic healthcare is not.

We keep seeing bubbles because we keep putting tons of effort into ventures that benefit fewer and fewer people. We "fixed" things after the last bubble, but people are still becoming more and more disenfranchised. There's less buy-in, so a new bubble comes along of hype, the economy is getting better.... Oh wait nope cause we're letting too many people fall beside the wayside. They lose interest, quit investing, stop caring. Whatever it is.

The economy as a whole is only going to remain stable once we act more inclusively. Or we'll just keep seeing these financial bubbles, that are, IMO, really caused more by quickly getting buy in and turning things around, only for our shitty attention spans to kick in and realize 5-10 years later things are still shit in the real world.

All this extravagant bullshit we're told will improve us! Staring at this shit is important! Get pissed over headphone jacks! So we keep pushing for these bullshit things, and protecting that pipeline, which I think people are maybe realizing is just a sick joke.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#83

So, the article says dotcoms caused first bubble in 2000, houses in 2008, but this one is driven by central banks printing money. And there is no way they will stop printing so this is an infinite bubble There is sooo much wrong with that. As @rtpg says, that s stops not when Fed stops printing money but when market realises that the high asset prices "globally" become obviously unsustainable. The issue is that when…

another way to think about high asset prices is fear of owning currency. it's not irrational given the willingness of central banks to debase money.

If that were the case (central banks debasing money), you'd see high interest rates. You'd also see inflation in goods, not just high prices in financial assets.

When people talk about central banks "debasing" currency because of QE, they miss one thing: Something in the neighborhood of one trillion dollars evaporated in 2008. That's the kind of thing that can lead to a significant deflationary mess. The central banks actually did a pretty good job of maintaining the value of their currencies, in light of the magnitude of the event.

Why is deflation so bad? Well, dollars are rarer, and therefore worth more. But I still owe the same number of dollars on my house, my car, and my student loans. If my income drops due to the deflation, my debts go from "manageable" to "crushing". So many peoples' spendable income drops, so they buy less. In that circumstance, a bunch of people sell their houses for whatever they can get, and a bunch more walk away. So house prices drop. And so it goes, with economic activity declining, prices falling, money becoming scarcer, and those who are in debt getting destroyed.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#84
post #56

According to the OP, we have a global "central-bank-led cash bubble" powered by "an ever flowing money hose." If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping…

I believe the root of the problem is creating more money via institutions that don't need it. It would do a whole lot more good to give it to people who do need it and will therefore spend it. Their spending creates profitable business opportunities for others. People and institutions that already have plenty of money are "hoarding cash" (and real estate) because, after other needs are taken care of, what remains is…

Unfortunately, central banks don't have much leeway in choosing where the money goes. Government budgets can distribute money to people through welfare, jobs programs or infrastructure investment. By creating a low interest rate, the central banks are essentially begging governments to take the free money and use it to stimulate the economy. Austerity proponents, deficit hawks and outright political deadlock is making this fail. Basically, "You can lead a horse to water, but can't make it drink."

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#85
The focus on our current economic climate frequently seems to be on the experimental dovish policies of central banks and its implications on bubbling asset prices, yet nobody seems to be talking about how eerily close this is predicted by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory[0]. I'm confounded by why the theory is considered by mainstream economists as controversial when in instances such as the dot com and housing bubbles popping in the US it was preceeded by the Federal Reserve contracting the money supply after prolonged periods of money printing. I fully expect the next fatal economic downturn to follow the eventual raising of interest rates, if runaway inflation doesn't occur first[1].

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory

1. http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/05/inflation_...

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#86

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

Why on earth would you ever think it's a good idea to move to all cash?

> Why on earth would you ever think it's a good idea to move to all cash?

It's right there in the comment:

> Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate....

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#87
post #85

The focus on our current economic climate frequently seems to be on the experimental dovish policies of central banks and its implications on bubbling asset prices, yet nobody seems to be talking about how eerily close this is predicted by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory[0]. I'm confounded by why the theory is considered by mainstream economists as controversial when in instances such as the dot com and housing bu…

Thank you for sharing this theory. I agree with the theory that low interest rates are meant to incentivize riskier investments and can lead to runaway prices in capital asset classes that eventually must correct because they don't provide consumer value. However, based on this theory, the current actions of corporations and investors are rejecting the incentive to place riskier bets and I can't see run away prices on a capital asset on the macro us or global scale as we saw with housing from 80s to 2008. Perhaps capital allocation managers implicitly agree with the theory and taking cautionary steps to avoid the bust.

But I wonder if this fear of busts is holding back innovation. Society is helpless to progress at a faster rate because God forbid there is another bust and people lose jobs and hope about the future. I think companies are waiting with cash in hand to buy up the good deals in an expecting bust. But I would prefer to have the cash used for risky ventures and I accept the bust outcome.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the wealthy, who are the one's who have really benefitted from this free money will buy these chit boxes, and rent them out at outragious ROI. And so will the wealthy foreigner--with a lousy phone call. I've given up on more building. I think we need to open up areas where people can camp without breaking the law. Or, at least allow people to legally sleep in their vehicles. The fines/fees for breaking over strin…

It's really a shame that we've coerced people into earning an income to live, because the means of living that don't require money are largely becoming illegal. Where are you allowed to sleep for free in the US? You could perhaps get a wilderness permit and live in a national park for a time, but I'm not sure what the maximum period of validity is on them. Cities will cite you under anti-camping rules. There isn't re…

Actually, prison is far from a free shelter for the imprisoned, at least in the US: https://www.brennancenter.org/states-pay-stay-charges

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#89
post #81

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

> First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash? My advice to you is 1) Diversify 2) Stop trying to outsmart the market. These things are cyclical in nature and it can be difficult for individual players to 1) buy on the low end of the cycle and 2) sell on the high end.

That is what I thought I was doing. I bought a house in 2010 and sold at the then peak in 2013 :-(.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#90
post #56

According to the OP, we have a global "central-bank-led cash bubble" powered by "an ever flowing money hose." If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping…

I believe this is a generation thing. Generation Y grew up with so many crisis and terror attacks, its just naturally everyone is hording their cash. Also a lot of people want to stay independent and mobile so they are not (yet) settling down.

uhh, Generation Y doesn't have cash to hoard
Post reply on HN