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This Bubble's Got Legs

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Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#51

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

See my comment below: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12461647

A "money bubble" caused by too many people wanting to keep assets in cash (rather than make investments) is deflationary. The apparent deflation is caused by the reduction in availability of credit. So the central banks are backfilling, like pumping air into a deflating balloon.

It's not arithmetically possible for everyone to hide from all risk forever. It's got to end up somewhere. Diversify, don't just hold one asset class.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#52
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't "dumb puritanism" when applied at the individual level. The problem is private debt, particular private debt that doesn't self-liquidate (consumption). See Steve Keen (certainly no puritan on debt) on the distinction between public debt and private debt and its effects on the economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A

How much of our current Federal debt is just funding current consumption? How much of the budget can truly be scored as investments? Perhaps not even the bulk of student higher education loans....

I agree entirely, but the sovereign issuing debt in it's a currency it controls (and let us assume, push come shove, the Treasury will side with the government over the Federal Reserve) is different than an individual taking on debt for consumption.

Keen is very good on this and has convinced me, despite it going against my inherent anti-debt biases.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#53

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

Why on earth would you ever think it's a good idea to move to all cash?

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#54
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the government sold all it's land to pay back it's debt, we'd be no better off than we were back in the Robber Barron days. It's not secured debt, so it would be stupid for any entity to give up hard assets. This would almost be equivocal with ceasing to be a sovereign.

If the government doesn't pay back/at least keep current on that debt, it's likely to fall, as in, the whole system of government, as happened the last time it screwed up so badly ("Not worth a Continental." although there were of course other factors). Secured by hard assets or not, a very great deal depends on people continuing to have a degree of faith in it as a whole, and it's hard to see how repudiating the deb…

A U.S. Government that staved off bankruptcy by selling such vast, historic and valuable assets, would be on even worse footing that one that maintained the assets and defaulted on the debt.

Hell, while they're at it, why not sell off the exclusive economic zones, permanently sell off bandwidth rather than lease, turn the military into a contracted mercenary force and sell naming rights to the Washington Monument.

There are worse things than defaulting on debt.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#55
post #30

The financial problems originated with excess debt, but debts that are so large that they cannot be paid back - will not be paid back. Inflating assets via QE doesn't really address the real underlying problem. The only long-term solution I have seen is Debt for Equity swaps. It won't work everywhere, but it does help. For example, when the Banks were technically insolvent then the opportunity should have been taken…

The only long-term solution I have seen is Debt for Equity swaps. It won't work everywhere, but it does help. Note the US Federal government owns so much land in the Western part of the country and Alaska that that alone might allow it to get its fiscal house in order, and could certainly help. I mean, isn't it everyone's dream to have title to a plot of Alaskan tundra ^_^? Obviously it would be very hard to make thi…

Again, I don't see why people are worrying so much about the US government here. It's one of those situations where you don't have to outrun the bear, just the other guys.

It's the countries that can't devalue and print a little to ease their situations (Euro countries other than Germany) that are in trouble. Then there's the countries which are dependent on fossil fuel exports for their budget (Saudi and Russia, but also Brazil and Venezuela among others). Then there's China's economic structure, which has far more pretending in it.

The US is fine unless another Republican Congress decides to blow it up with the debt ceiling.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#56
According to the OP, we have a global "central-bank-led cash bubble" powered by "an ever flowing money hose."

If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping rates artificially low, central banks are causing asset prices to increase, making investment in productive endeavors less profitable for businesses and individuals.

If you believe interest rates are low primarily because businesses and individuals worldwide want to hoard cash (as a way to protect themselves against, say, potential deflation or insufficient aggregate demand), then you will disagree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are doing everything they can to motivate businesses and individuals to invest more in productive endeavors. Yet even when rates turn negative, individuals and businesses still want to hoard cash, as evidenced by their demand for negative-interest instruments.[1]

[1] http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/07/the-weird-new-normal-of-...

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#57

This is scary as I moved to all cash a couple of years ago. I still don't understand how there can be a bubble in money. All I see around me is house and stock prices going up incredibly. Does a money bubble popping result in high inflation making my money in the bank worthless. Fuck. First I got burned in stocks, then in real estate, and now cash?

What could happen is your cash becoming more valuable in a deflationary spiral. My take is you're incurring the opportunity cost today on your cash reserves. Your present value is based on a belief that the future will be deflationary over inflationary. You could model this with an estimation of the present value of your cash holdings as a function of how long you hold it and your expected inflation rates.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#58
I am reminded of when I worked on a financial analytics app and we constantly had to remove the Zimbabwe stocks. They'd all gone up 1000's of percent and ruined all the other data on the chart (appearance-wise). Why? As the Zimbabwe currency lost value and became worthless, the stocks denominated in that currency held their real value. I would expect to see some version of this play out in the stock market today.

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even taking the silly assumption, for the sake of this argument, that the federal government's finance is just like a giant household, its debt figures are fine. It has a debt-to-income ratio of 14.3, the highest possible credit rating, and assets that far exceed debt. Lenders would be tripping over themselves to lend to to such a household, and lo and behold lenders are tripping over themselves to lend to the USG. T…

It isn't "dumb puritanism" when applied at the individual level. The problem is private debt, particular private debt that doesn't self-liquidate (consumption). See Steve Keen (certainly no puritan on debt) on the distinction between public debt and private debt and its effects on the economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLplU4WdX9A

A didactic video with a talking head and no use of the video medium whatsoever is extremely annoying. What about that video couldn't be done equally well or better in writing?

Re: This Bubble's Got Legs

#60
Some background for those concerned with inflation:

The US dollar is backed first and foremost by the global reserve status of our currency, which it became in 1971, as (probably the most important) part of the Bretton Woods System. As long as nations need US dollars to purchase crude oil, the US dollar will continue to be globally valuable.

Secondly, the US has a powerful military, including hundreds of essentially forward operating bases and air fields, lying in wait, all over the world.

Third, and as a secondary property of our military and economic strength, many countries are owed many billions of US dollars. This is because, due to the strength of the US military, T-bills (essentially bets made on the US dollar) are purchased by many nations. When other countries bet on the US dollar, they're creating a vested interest in the US dollar not collapsing, which increases the US leverage (leading to things like money printing).

None of this is meant to make you more too comfortable, because, despite all of the above, China, Russia, Libya, Iran, Brazil, South Africa, and, at times, India, have been attempting to reduce the US dollar hegemony by creating other means of trading oil.

For instance, Libya's late leader, Muammar Gaddafi, created a gold backed currency for trading oil (this is the reason NATO invaded Libya and killed Gaddafi). Russia and Iran made agreements to trade food (from Russia) for Oil (from Iran), which Russia would then add to its exports, acting as a trade proxy for Iran. This, combined with Iran's efforts to pipe natural gas and oil to China, is the reason for the supposed "Iranian nuclear threat". China has also recently created the Shanghai Gold Exchange, as a means to further commoditize fiat currency (china has very large gold reserves). BRICS has created a competitor to the Western-dominated IMF in the past 24 months, which also threatens the US reserve currency's backup plan, which is called the SDR (Special Drawing Rights). The list goes on; not to mention the calls Xi Jinping has directly made to remove the US dollar as a reserve currency (IOW, this isn't exactly covert, as of about mid 2010).

As you can see, considering our posturing in the South China Sea, and considering what happened to Gaddafi, the US won't acquiesce to losing its reserve status. So, the US dollar is not going to "collapse", lest we find ourselves engaged in total war (with China, et al). So, as long as you don't plan to bail on the US in a total war scenario, you're, in my opinion, safe to invest in USD.

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