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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#161

Post by nbevans »

alkonaut wrote: post #132
nbevans wrote: post #79

A few thousand jobs that Japanese automakers bring to the UK is nothing compared to the jobs that can be created as a result of a successful Brexit. Jaguar Land Rover continues to go from strength to strength... how about turning the tables so we are actually selling more cars to Japan than they sell to us? Scary thought eh? That's what Brexit is about. It's about daring to think big. Like Great Britain used to do fo…

Yup, that's how jobs are made. Make some good cars. Back out of the single market where you can sell them easily. Hope the Japanese will buy more to offset the losses in EU sales. I don't think the reason more Japanese cars are sold to the UK than vice versa is the single market.

Sarcasm; the lowest form of wit.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#162

Post by tonyedgecombe »

mattmanser wrote: post #83
wuschel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please correct me if I am wrong - as I understand, the referendum for the BREXIT is not binding. As such, there is a lot of fuss and hot air about things that will possibly not materialize. Not to mention all those speculative business affairs..

No, it's happening. As in like the most likely thing to happen next is that it will happen. It's not binding as in they could theoretically put it to an MP vote and reject it, but it would be utter political suicide for any party that did. So it's only not binding only if you're completely and utterly delusional. There would be riots, a major swing to UKIP, lots of 'safe' MPs would lose their seats, etc., etc.

I'm sure it would get put to another vote based on some material change to the situation. My guess is with restrictions on free movement many people would change their mind.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#163

Post by gsnedders »

georgeecollins wrote: post #137
wuschel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please correct me if I am wrong - as I understand, the referendum for the BREXIT is not binding. As such, there is a lot of fuss and hot air about things that will possibly not materialize. Not to mention all those speculative business affairs..

It is fundamentally undermining of the legitimacy of a democracy to ignore the popular vote in a national referendum. Although the majority now may believe it is the right choice, the precedent would inevitably come back to haunt you.

There's precedent, though, in the form of the Scottish devolution referendum in 1979. 51.6% voted in favour of a Scottish Assembly, but as enacted to be considered to pass it needed 40% or more of the registered electorate to vote in favour—with only 63.7% turnout, it was only 32.9% of the registered electorate.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#164

Post by yummyfajitas »

davidf18 wrote: post #156
yummyfajitas wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by being included in statistics. In the US, most people with American parents have higher income than their parents did (in their 30's). This is true for all quintiles except maybe the top 20%. http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/upload…

> In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by existing. It is probably for both reasons, but certainly immigrants that have low education compete with Americans who have low education for jobs and they do drive down wage growth. This is not my opinion. It is economics. The issue i…

But the wages of Americans with American parents has risen, not fallen. Wages for Americans with American parents in the lowest quintile of income have risen the most - that seems like exactly the opposite of what your theory predicts!

Since immigrants are consumers as well as producers, it's unclear that they drive down wages. Similarly it's unclear that Americans having children drives wages down.

I'm not sure what "fair" means in your comment, or why you only consider "fair to the American working class" rather than "fair to humans". Could you clarify?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#165

Post by flexie »

timthorn wrote: post #77
flexie wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but if you are old enough, you might remember that long before 1973 the UK spanned the world: India, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada. You even had 13 colonies south of Canada. And if you are that old, you might remember that they didn't like the UK way of trading. I hope the UK will never get back that glory. The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world. If anything, it…

> The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world Upon joining the EU, the free trade arrangements that the UK had with Commonwealth countries were dissolved.

And new trade deals were entered into with many of those with the EU as a party.

Now they are EU trading partners, interested in remaining such, and to the extent UK agreements would collide with their EU agreements they are not prone to giving up any advantages they might have for the sake of dealing with their old oppressors.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#166

Post by ZenoArrow »

anonymousDan wrote: post #109
ZenoArrow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like this is pre-Brexit. The decision to leave the EU has already been made. The decision can't be ignored by the British government as it would be political suicide. I'm sure the Japanese government are aware of this. The question is then, why make these statements at all? The only explanation that makes sense to me is opportunism on behalf of Japanese corporations. Threatening to leave gives you bargaining…

Not really, there is still plenty of room for manoeuvre as to what exactly should be prioritised during the brexit negotiations. The Japanese are well within their rights to warn about the potential implications of a hard brexit.

I'd argue that the Japanese corporations don't care what form of Brexit is followed, so long as it doesn't hurt their bottom line. Mitigation against potential losses could come in the form of tax breaks or other benefits negotiated with the British government.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#167

Post by [deleted] »

mattmanser wrote: post #89
martinko wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Valid point, but don't forget that the UK has a much stronger bargaining position than other countries.

This is why I don't buy too much of the rhetoric. The 5th biggest economy in the world is going to be put on the naughty step because its citizens decided enough is enough on mass immigration? I think it'll end up being a lot of hot air while a load of backroom EU face-saving, but ultimately lucrative, trade deals are set up.

[deleted]

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#168

Post by davidf18 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #164
davidf18 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the US the reason the middle class has had no wage growth is NOT because immigrants have hindered wage growth. The reason is simply because immigrants lower the averages simply by existing. It is probably for both reasons, but certainly immigrants that have low education compete with Americans who have low education for jobs and they do drive down wage growth. This is not my opinion. It is economics. The issue i…

But the wages of Americans with American parents has risen, not fallen. Wages for Americans with American parents in the lowest quintile of income have risen the most - that seems like exactly the opposite of what your theory predicts! Since immigrants are consumers as well as producers, it's unclear that they drive down wages. Similarly it's unclear that Americans having children drives wages down. I'm not sure what…

> But the wages of Americans with American parents has risen, not fallen. Wages for Americans with American parents in the lowest quintile of income have risen the most - that seems like exactly the opposite of what your theory predicts!

Are you certain that this applies to Americans that don't have a college education? That didn't graduate from high school? Those who would suffer most economically from uneducated immigrants?

And one must average in those who are unemployed (eg, 0 wages).

Don't look at averages, look at distributions.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#169

Post by yummyfajitas »

davidf18 wrote: post #168
yummyfajitas wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the wages of Americans with American parents has risen, not fallen. Wages for Americans with American parents in the lowest quintile of income have risen the most - that seems like exactly the opposite of what your theory predicts! Since immigrants are consumers as well as producers, it's unclear that they drive down wages. Similarly it's unclear that Americans having children drives wages down. I'm not sure what…

> But the wages of Americans with American parents has risen, not fallen. Wages for Americans with American parents in the lowest quintile of income have risen the most - that seems like exactly the opposite of what your theory predicts! Are you certain that this applies to Americans that don't have a college education? That didn't graduate from high school? Those who would suffer most economically from uneducated im…

Are you certain that this applies to Americans that don't have a college education?

No, I am not certain that Americans with American parents in the bottom 20% didn't get an education. Some of them probably did (about half the population has at least some college) and had their place at the bottom of the ladder filled by an immigrant.

Don't look at averages, look at distributions.

It helps if you actually follow the link provided and look at the exact figure being cited. Then you'd see it's a histogram of a distribution!

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#170

Post by ZenoArrow »

douche wrote: post #143
yummyfajitas wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a lady who's married but isn't super happy in the marriage. When she discussed possible divorce with her husband, he promised that he'd bog her down with paperwork, unreasonable alimony demands and just an extremely messy and unpleasant divorce. No settlement, it's going to multiple levels of court and will take years. Assuming your comment is meant as an argument for remain, it's an equally good argument for…

Interesting. Generally, it's the man that gets raked over the coals and every cent in his pocket vacuumed out, restraining orders taken out, family court, loss of access to children, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

What difference does that make here? It's an analogy. Feel free to swap the genders used in the analogy so that you can comment on the main point being made without getting distracted.
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