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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#141

Post by kalleboo »

alva wrote: post #127
kalleboo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

The numbers speak for themselves http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-02.htm Section 2-14 http://www.dir.co.jp/english/research/report/others/20150529... But you are right, I should have said first-world countries, I am not familiar with developing countries policies. Compared to the US and Europe, Japan's immigration policy is far stricter (and sensible as you state for skilled labour) and a significant dr…

The numbers don't tell the whole story - Japan also has large non-acceptance-related barriers to immigration, including the massive language barrier, low wages and a poor working environment for skilled workers compared to western companies, and a weak welfare system. Immigration system aside, Japan just isn't an attractive country to move to for economic considerations.

edit: as for anecdotes, I know people who have moved to the EU and US through marriage, and it was a multi-year and/or multi-thousand dollar ordeal. I know people who moved to the US though work and it was the same thing (working in a EU office for a year to satisfy some random internal-transfer criteria). Meanwhile getting a visa in Japan is a $30 fee for ID card issuance and everyone I know here has gotten visas approved in days (marriage visa, not even an interview required) to months (work visas).

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#142

Post by georgeecollins »

This is sad for the UK, but scary as an American facing an election where people want to build a wall and "make America great again." Like Brexit, the rhetoric sounds good to some, but those speaking have no idea how to implement what they are talking about or the likely consequences.

I am not trying to make an argument for or against conservatism. I am saying we need to ask politicians to explain their policies in detail.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#143

Post by douche »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #128
microtonal wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it is not in the EU's best interest to give the UK the best possible deal, especially with many populist parties ready to request an exit if the UK deal works out well. The whole process will be immensely complicated: the deal should be bad enough for the UK to instil fear for an exit, but good enough to avoid an economic collapse.

I know a lady who's married but isn't super happy in the marriage. When she discussed possible divorce with her husband, he promised that he'd bog her down with paperwork, unreasonable alimony demands and just an extremely messy and unpleasant divorce. No settlement, it's going to multiple levels of court and will take years. Assuming your comment is meant as an argument for remain, it's an equally good argument for…

Interesting. Generally, it's the man that gets raked over the coals and every cent in his pocket vacuumed out, restraining orders taken out, family court, loss of access to children, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#144

Post by tim333 »

okket wrote: post #58
tim333 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a very good article on the practical difficulties of leaving the EU successfully - "Everything you need to know about Theresa May’s Brexit nightmare in five minutes." Basically either you restrict immigration, lose free trade and screw the economy by mucking up decades of prior investments such as that by the Japanese or you go the Norway model where you still have EU immigration and budget payments but les…

Here is a link to the article you mentioned: http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/07/14/everything-you-ne... I also find the following article very informative: "Brexit means Brexit – and that means there will be no debate on freedom of movement" http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-means-brexit-and-...

That's a little scary if that is what happens. (The article suggests May will enact article 50 in Jan without significant trade concessions from the EU). Maybe time to sell up and short the FTSE.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#145

Post by gonvaled »

mpweiher wrote: post #105
mattmanser wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I don't buy too much of the rhetoric. The 5th biggest economy in the world is going to be put on the naughty step because its citizens decided enough is enough on mass immigration? I think it'll end up being a lot of hot air while a load of backroom EU face-saving, but ultimately lucrative, trade deals are set up.

(a) The UK is not being put on the "naughty step". It will stop receiving special privileges that are contingent on being a member of the EU, because it wants to leave the EU. This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes. (b) The US is the world's largest national economy (#2 if you count the EU as a single economy) and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU…

> This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes.

Exactly: I wish both brexiteers and EU citizens disappointed by the UK's decision would actually start understanding this: losing EU's benefits is not punishment, is just a consequence of abandoning the EU.

Getting access to the market is a benefit to a national economy which the EU has made contingent to an essential individual freedom - which is not necessarily beneficial to the economy - namely freedom of movement, because, well, not everything in life is economy.

The UK wants one without the other, and this would first of all damage individual freedoms, and second put the economies which are committed to sustain freedom of movement eventually at a disadvantage. The EU can not allow such a state of a affairs.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#146

Post by kalleboo »

GunboatDiplomat wrote: post #124
kalleboo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

Really? It's well known that Japan is not really welcoming to immigrants. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Japan#Immigrant...

I'm not sure what your link is trying to say. Naturalisation in Japan requires giving up your existing passport, and the only privilege it gives you is voting in elections. It also says a slim majority supports increased immigration (while a slim majority in the UK supports reduced immigration).

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#147

Post by rwmj »

davidf18 wrote: post #138
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think May and the Cabinet do. All the noises seem to suggest the real priority is xenophobia - i.e. immigration. ...Which is a purely political strategy to capture the continued support of leave voters - exactly the people whose lives will be destroyed when trade dries up. The problem is that the typical leave voter understands immigration because they have direct personal experience of immigrants. But leave…

The issue with immigration is not xenophobia but economic as Economist Branko Milanovic (and perhaps others) have been pointing out since 2012. Milanovic's now famous "Elephant Curve" shows that the working or middle class in developed countries have seen no wage growth in 20 years. Part of that effect is from exporting jobs to China, Mexico (for US), Eastern Europe (for Europe) and part of that is from importing uns…

If it wasn't freedom of movement, it would be technological change (how many people will self-driving lorries put out of work?). The real problem is no one has thought about the long term where a lot of people either won't be able to work or won't need to work. In the UK we still have politicians who genuinely think a less than minimum wage job packing training shoes in a warehouse is morally better than someone being unemployed.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#148

Post by douche »

kalleboo wrote: post #108
alva wrote: post #62

"With regard to unskilled workers, Japanese businesses rely on inexpensive labour from Eastern Europe in the manufacturing and agricultural industries in the UK" What a hypocritical demand from the Japanese. They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world, largely for the sake of national homogeneity at the expensive of their economy. They believe that is a worthwhile sacrifice for them, why n…

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

Seems like an eminently sensible proposition. It baffles me why the United States makes it so difficult for high-quality, educated immigrants to get over here, be productive, and become citizens, when there are tens of millions of illegals. Particularly baffling for all the international students that study at our elite universities, then upon graduation, get a swift boot to the behind and told to go home.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#149

Post by aaronbrethorst »

karma_vaccum123 wrote: post #99
rbanffy wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't mind if it's their informed opinion. What we see in this case is that they were sold a lie, one that'll eventually collapse into an ugly, harsh truth. The best deal possible is a Norway-like arrangement, which would be unacceptable to nationalists.

Your comment basically confirms, on a more subtle level, what the GP post is saying. You have no factual basis for claiming these people are asserting false facts or voting based on false facts. Brexit is a vote on what the future should look like, and no one has a factual basis to predict the future. tl;dr people you disagree with aren't fraudulent by default

Demonstrably untrue: http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_576d0aa3e4b08d2c5638fc17

And in Trump's case (describing immigrants as "rapists" and "murderers") it is also demonstrably false http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mythical-connection-between-...

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#150

Post by monk_e_boy »

hackuser wrote: post #136

People supporting bad policies like to say there are no bad consequences. You hear this about Brexit, climate change, bankrupting the government, violence and war, etc. It's the same rhetorical tool used for a lot of propaganda: You can lie in a moment; it takes hours or days for people to gather the evidence to disprove it. (To disarm this propaganda: It's easy to construct nonsense that sounds plausible - even to y…

Most people I talked to were well informed. I think a lot of people were happy to stick it to big business, most of who pay less tax than a local chippy.

We felt Brexit was about control, we wanted more of it. When the USA told us off for wanting more freedom it felt a little weird... but, but, you're the land of the free. We just want to be able to control immigration. We want control from Brussels.

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