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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#131

Post by yummyfajitas »

microtonal wrote: post #102
tajen wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> instill fear Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I prefer staying in Europe, but if the majority of my fellows prefer the opposite, then it's democracy. Who are we to judge they are "stupid", "country-side, or "senile", like I've read all across newspapers, or even fascists, like I've heard too? If Europe relies on hating the peopl…

Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I think people can handle condescending comments. The problem is that you cannot reap the benefits without paying dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised. It's in the interest of the remaining EU members to make this clear, or the whole union will crumble. It's likely that this will throw back…

Why can't they? Canada does.

Apart from desire to punish the UK, what prevents the EU and the UK from coming to a CETA like agreement (exactly as Boris and May have expressed support for)?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#132

Post by alkonaut »

nbevans wrote: post #79

A few thousand jobs that Japanese automakers bring to the UK is nothing compared to the jobs that can be created as a result of a successful Brexit. Jaguar Land Rover continues to go from strength to strength... how about turning the tables so we are actually selling more cars to Japan than they sell to us? Scary thought eh? That's what Brexit is about. It's about daring to think big. Like Great Britain used to do fo…

Yup, that's how jobs are made. Make some good cars. Back out of the single market where you can sell them easily. Hope the Japanese will buy more to offset the losses in EU sales.

I don't think the reason more Japanese cars are sold to the UK than vice versa is the single market.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#133

Post by gpderetta »

mpweiher wrote: post #100
lispm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now, it has the possibility of accessing the EU market AND trading with the world. Wonderful. Something which clearly is not possible while in the EU. I never understood why the EU did not allow that. The UK never had a chance to successfully trade within the EU and trade with other countries was strictly forbidden. Brexit will change all that. Congratulations!

>trade with other countries was strictly forbidden. Huh? All EU countries trade with countries outside the EU all the time.

Sarcasm, obviously.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#134

Post by jcranmer »

edko wrote: post #93
Scarblac wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would other countries want that model? It seems to be strictly worse than full membership.

I also wonder why Norway wants that model?

Most likely fisheries. The EU's fishery policy is traditionally held as horrible, and Norway and Iceland both have relative large fishing economies and better-maintained fisheries than the EU CFP.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#135

Post by varjag »

tim333 wrote: post #57
Scarblac wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the best option is to have a big party and declare Brexit a huge success, without actually doing anything.

I suspect we may end up with something close to that. Maybe a Norway option and a party.

Norway option includes taking its fair share of refugees along with the EU, and overall following the EU regulations. I thought the point of Brexit was against all that?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#136

Post by hackuser »

People supporting bad policies like to say there are no bad consequences.

You hear this about Brexit, climate change, bankrupting the government, violence and war, etc. It's the same rhetorical tool used for a lot of propaganda: You can lie in a moment; it takes hours or days for people to gather the evidence to disprove it.

(To disarm this propaganda: It's easy to construct nonsense that sounds plausible - even to you, smart person; don't let your ego be your weakness - and professionals make a study and art of it. Don't take anything seriously unless it has serious evidence and research behind it in the first place; the first claim has the burden of proof. Also, notice that their real argument is in the unspoken assumptions behind it, how the issue is defined and framed.)

Here's why I think it works: Most policy consequences are difficult to notice if you are uninformed. You can't know nationwide unemployment, GDP growth, or climate change by looking around (with some exceptions). Western economies and societies are huge and complex; often changes are subtle and slow; often they affect one set of people - probably not you - more than another set of people. Finally, in an environment that complex, it's hard to provably connect outcomes to actions (is that hurricane due to climate change? did people get cancer because of the factory's carcinogen or because of bad luck?), and the propagandists can pump out enough lies to raise doubts in people's minds (look up "FUD").

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#137

Post by georgeecollins »

wuschel wrote: post #72
TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

Please correct me if I am wrong - as I understand, the referendum for the BREXIT is not binding. As such, there is a lot of fuss and hot air about things that will possibly not materialize. Not to mention all those speculative business affairs..

It is fundamentally undermining of the legitimacy of a democracy to ignore the popular vote in a national referendum. Although the majority now may believe it is the right choice, the precedent would inevitably come back to haunt you.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#138

Post by davidf18 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #25
martinko wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

I don't think May and the Cabinet do. All the noises seem to suggest the real priority is xenophobia - i.e. immigration. ...Which is a purely political strategy to capture the continued support of leave voters - exactly the people whose lives will be destroyed when trade dries up. The problem is that the typical leave voter understands immigration because they have direct personal experience of immigrants. But leave…

The issue with immigration is not xenophobia but economic as Economist Branko Milanovic (and perhaps others) have been pointing out since 2012. Milanovic's now famous "Elephant Curve" shows that the working or middle class in developed countries have seen no wage growth in 20 years. Part of that effect is from exporting jobs to China, Mexico (for US), Eastern Europe (for Europe) and part of that is from importing unskilled/low skilled labor.

20 years ago Britain had 900,000 immigrants. Today they have 3.3 million. The British government promised to limit EU immigration to 100,000 last year but broke their promise: it exceeded 300,000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-...

These low-skilled immigrants compete for jobs in the UK and lower wage growth. Not those of professionals but of the working class/middle class.

In the US, in 1970 we had 9.6 million immigrants (less than 5% of the population) and 2013 41.3 million (about 14% of the population). That does not include the 11 million immigrants in the US illegally.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/chapter-5-u-s-foreign-...

As in the case of Britain, the working class in the US is suffering from the mostly low-educated immigrants that compete for jobs and drive down wage rates. The 11 million immigrants in the country illegally take jobs with illegal working conditions and illegally low wages since they can't complain.

So, the issue is economic and not xenophobic.

The real issue of BrExit and the rise of Trump is because the political and media elites in both countries (and this includes the Democrats as well as Republicans) have ignored the economic concerns of the working class.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#139

Post by agumonkey »

mpweiher wrote: post #101
agumonkey wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GBP stopped falling though. Dunno if it's because brexit stalled or because the market thinks brexit will be fine.

It stopped falling, for now, but has steadied at a significantly lower level. Don't know how this can be interpreted as markets thinking that brexit will be fine. It just looks like the market has priced in the current situation, which is worse than before, but doesn't yet know what will happen, because nobody really knows.

My reflection was "negative". If companies emitted signs of trouble and England seen as the Titanic, I thought the GBP would keep crashing; the fact that it wasn't led me to believe the British market was still fine and could handle more stress on its own in the future.
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