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Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

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Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#21

Post by tjbiddle »

kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

But of course, this is specific to your father's scenario. A quick Google search shows the average cost of electricity in the US actually is $0.12/kWh.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#22

Post by Retric »

honkhonkpants wrote: post #16
Retric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can do 800+ miles a day easily with sold charging infrastructure. Sure, if you want to do a cannon ball run rent a car, but 4 hours of driving, get lunch, another 4 hours of driving, take a 30 minute break, 2 hours of driving, dinner anther 4 hours of driving get some sleep. That's an extra 30 minute break for 14 hour road trip.

There's only one car that can go 4 hours on a charge, and that's the Tesla S. If you charge it for 30 minutes, it can go about another 2.5 hours. My VW Golf TDI goes more than 750 miles on a tank at 65MPH. That's an entire days' driving for 5 minutes of fueling. Yes, the filthy Volkswageneers have to buy my car back, but it was certainly nice on the range.

While true, that range is from a 12,000$ battery pack which could be put in a 35,000$ car. So, really these cars don't have great range because they don't need to have great range.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#23

Post by Gibbon1 »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #9
teach wrote: post #2

> By comparison, the average new car in the U.S. today sells for about $33,000. That may be the mean but I'll bet it's nowhere near the median.

yeah, and maybe they should factor in the average car bought and sold, there's still a LOT of car owners/buyers that stick to the used lots.

You can buy a fairly low mileage used Nissan Leaf for approximately $10,000 right now. Look on Craigslist take your pick. For the life of me I cannot imagine why you wouldn't be able to buy the same cars for $5,000 five years from now.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#24

Post by white-flame »

teach wrote: post #2

> By comparison, the average new car in the U.S. today sells for about $33,000. That may be the mean but I'll bet it's nowhere near the median.

I wish I had saved a link to it, but a study on affordability marked an average earning household of about $35k/yr as being able to afford an $8,000 car. In order to be able to afford the "average" $33,000 car took a $90k/yr income.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#25

Post by will_hughes »

honkhonkpants wrote: post #13
hyperbovine wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gas is what 2 minutes? Depends quite a lot on where you are. There are 12 gas stations south of 96th St. in Manhattan. SF will have lost 40% of the service stations it had 10 years ago as of 2017. Boston, same. The gas station at Divisadero and Fell has what looks like a 20 minute wait at all times. This is all due to real estate prices. Getting gas in affluent coastal metropolises is not a pleasant experience. Not…

20 minutes is still 30x faster than charging. And how many charging stations do you think there are south of 96th street?

I don't know exactly the area you're talking about, but 96th Street, Manhattan NY?

Probably lot more than you think[1].

[1] https://www.plugshare.com/

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#26

Post by Retric »

hammock wrote: post #18
Retric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can do 800+ miles a day easily with sold charging infrastructure. Sure, if you want to do a cannon ball run rent a car, but 4 hours of driving, get lunch, another 4 hours of driving, take a 30 minute break, 2 hours of driving, dinner anther 4 hours of driving get some sleep. That's an extra 30 minute break for 14 hour road trip.

That's a lot of downtime. Most people I know, including myself, when doing a 14 hour roadtrip would stop as infrequently as possible, for a total of 30-60min over the course of the trip. And that figure is including pee break stops, which your calculation presumably didn't.

It's actually really dangerous to do that kind of driving without taking significant breaks on a regular basis. But, sure if you do this regularly enough you can't either rent a gas car or spend an extra hour or 2 then fine. However, nobody I knew has done a trip like that in the last decade.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#27

Post by sitharus »

kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

However, a gasoline powered car also takes engine oil and transmission fluid if it's an automatic. It will also require regular servicing of the engine and eventual replacement of worn seals etc.

If the fuel cost per mile is the same the electric car could still be cheaper. I can't say how much though, because that depends on the servicing cost per year vs the battery replacement cost and that depends on your local service department.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#28

Post by bitL »

"Sooner" - I thought it would happen in 2012 when in Germany one of their largest energy provider "secretly" built a network of chargers which are more-less unused today.

Also, Lithium is a finite element, battery production causes quite a lot of environmental damage during extraction, manufacturing and disposal (of course not amortized to future necessary environmental cleanup, but who cares about a remote place in Zimbabwe?), all of them energetically demanding as well and the proposed scheme of paying $80/month flat fee for a battery swap as well as electricity costs might not come cheaper than fossil fuels...

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#29

Post by [deleted] »

pdwetz wrote: post #5
kalleboo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're just commuting, an electric car has it's own convenience - every morning it's full up and ready to go as it's been charging in your garage all night. No need to even think about remaining range or if you need to fill up or what gas station to go to.

Unless you renting and don't have access to a plug. Or want to go on a weekend trip. Electric is interesting, but nothing more as a result for me personally.

[deleted]

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#30

Post by PhantomGremlin »

kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

I had always assumed that electricity was far cheaper than gasoline

As you note, in many places electricity is far from cheap. Also you need to amortize the cost difference of a Tesla vs a conventional car. That's hard to justify as long as a Tesla costs in the neighborhood of $100,000.

But, perhaps generate that electricity on your rooftop! The utilities have lobbied effectively to lower the feed-in prices they must pay, so it may increasingly be cheaper to use that solar power yourself. I not up on the details, but perhaps this is one argument Musk is using to support Tesla's proposed acquisition of SolarCity?

many people, like my father, will choose to continue to drive gas-powered cars

I agree with you. I don't think the article made a very good case for electrics cars. The "gadget" market isn't that large for such an expensive item.

That said, I think I'd buy something like a Tesla once the pioneers have endured all the arrows in their backs and the bugs are worked out. So maybe 2025 might be the tipping point, as the article posits?

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