Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

curiousgnu.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 278 posts

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#121

Post by bluGill »

emodendroket wrote: post #53
mistermann wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't, there's fanous people like Warren Buffet of course, but I personally know of 3 individuals in investing forums who post all their trades and handily beat indexes over long periods.

Since you mentioned him: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-most-mportant-investme... > Nearly a decade ago, Warren Buffett made a million-dollar bet: that by investing in a completely unmanaged, broad-market low-fee index fund, he could beat the gains earned by a high-powered hedge fund with a team of managers at the helm. His opponent was Protege Partners, LLC, a New York City hedge fund with $3.5 billion in ass…

Warren Buffet has so much money in his control that he cannot beat the market - his very investments change the value of the good companies he invests in - and not in his favor. He can make small bets of companies, but even if the bets all pay off (they will not - even great investors make mistakes) it isn't enough to be very significant.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#122

Post by bluGill »

leakybit wrote: post #100
Someone1234 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we assume day trading is gambling, I wonder what the house odds look like contrasted against other forms of gambling (e.g. blackjack, poker, slots, horses, etc)? I guess what I am asking is, if we take it for granted that it is gambling (and I am happy to do so) is it gambling with the best odds around?

I would say the stock market more represents a poker game with hundreds of thousands of participants. There is no house, it's a free for all, and day traders simply don't have the capital or manpower to survive.

In poker there is a dealer: you are expected to tip the dealer if you win. In the stock market you pay the dealer win or lose.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#123

Post by dragonwriter »

KeytarHero wrote: post #113
samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

> Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. If your initial hunch is to buy a stock you don't own yet, you can't sell it instead.

> If your initial hunch is to buy a stock you don't own yet, you can't sell it instead.

You can (by selling on margin) if you have a margin account.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#125

Post by JamesSwift »

samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

What is the opposite of buying a specific stock? Buying every single other stock?

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#126

Post by dbish »

KeytarHero wrote: post #113
samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

> Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. If your initial hunch is to buy a stock you don't own yet, you can't sell it instead.

You can short it.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#127

Post by loteck »

JamesSwift wrote: post #125
samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

What is the opposite of buying a specific stock? Buying every single other stock?

In investing, my understanding is the opposite of a long is a short.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#129

Post by qznc »

samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

If you don't reach your destination by always turning left, then always turning right should be the winning strategy?

This is not about binary decisions. The problem is to pick two points in time: When to buy and when to sell.

Re: Almost 80% of Private Day Traders Lose Money

#130

Post by Nicholas_C »

JamesSwift wrote: post #125
samfisher83 wrote: post #103

If someone is consistently good at losing money 60% of the time. Why not just do the exact opposite of whatever their initial hunch is. Then they should make money. Based on loss of 36% from the article that is more than just transaction and trade fees which are 1 to 2%of trade therefore if they just do the opposite of what they are doing they should make money.

What is the opposite of buying a specific stock? Buying every single other stock?

Short selling a stock.
Post reply on HN