Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's quite simple to get a mortgage in other countries where banks don't securitize. And if you get into trouble they will work with you rather than immediately foreclose. Fixed rate mortgages for 30 years are a scam. How can a consumer predict interest rates over 30 years? If they go down they have to spend money on fees to refinance which benefits the Lenders. Adjustable rate mortgages are far better and allow for…
I see. You are clearly a troll. But a clever troll, as you have some background knowledge here.
America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
111–120 of 152 posts
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insight on how to be incredibly wrong on a housing bubble?
Easy to say in retrospect. Wrong like nearly everyone else.
The key to 'seeing it coming' of course, is to first willingly accept the possibility that something might happen, and then actually look into it. The issue was that many people were just not entertaining the possibility at all, and therefore not bothering to look into it. The information was all there for anybody to see, but this was a case of people missing the gorilla in the room because they were too busy paying attention to the game[0].
[0] http://www.livescience.com/6727-invisible-gorilla-test-shows...
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that type of betting (gambling) allowed? That's just plain insanity.
It's not betting (gambling), it's insurance . Is insurance insane?
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#114I'd agree that the US housing and derivatives markets are in a much better position than in 2007-2008. Atleast people who are getting mortgages now have some form of documentation, and risk manages are being asked to do their jobs. The crisis now is that, and this is just my opinion, low rates are here to stay. with the amount of money in the system, people are being priced out of homes and as time goes on the amount…
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nice comment. Food for thought. How big was the risk that they took ? Surely they knew that the market was insane. But would they have lost a lot of money if the market was insane for a long time ? I saw the movie but I don't remember a lot of the details. I was just trying to follow.
Yes, but unlike a normal short their loss was limited. They had (IIRC) a 7 year contract to pay $25million/year unless things went bust in which case they get paid $1 billion. So their worse case was a $175 million loss, their best case was a billion gain. If you have the money the potential return on invest is great. I'm about half way through the book now, but I don't have it handy at the moment to look up the real…
The big question is the likelihood of the gamble paying off. For a lotto ticket that's easy to figure. Trying to time the collapse of a bubble? If that was easy bubbles wouldn't exist. Maybe it's implied that 7 years was clearly more than enough time, but that's only clear in hindsight.
Now some of the winners of the collapse seemed to have had a firm grasp of the situation. But how would _you_, as an investor, know that? How do you measure that?
Warren Buffett can write all the books in the world for as long as he likes, but successfully communicating his knowledge, his strategies, his intuition, has proven fairly difficult. It's probably not even possible because Warren Buffett probably doesn't 100% understand his strategy. Likewise for other consistently successful people. If they were capable of communicating it, there'd be many more people like them.
It's like the old adage, if you code to the best of your ability, by definition you're not capable of debugging it.
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#116Partly because the state charges too little for the guarantees it offers, taxpayers are subsidising housing borrowers to the tune of up to $150 billion a year, or 1% of GDP. The original post makes this claim without any citation. I don't think it is correct. Recent stress-test reports on Fannie and Freddie show that, even making provisions for future bailouts in the stressed scenario, the agencies are profitable to…
If the guarantees really cost nothing or are profitable, the US should stop making them. They create all kinds of distortions even if it averages out.
But it's the fact that all the particpants (banks, agencies, etc) want them so badly makes it clear how valuable they really are.
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Pretty much everyone is saying that interest rates are going up in the US and are going to go up soon. I wouldn't say that. According to Bloomberg's interest rate predictor the probability of a hike before the end of the year, ie the definition of soon, is less than 50%. Even if you go out to the end of 2017 you still only get to 67% probability of a fed hike. And 67% is a far cry from "pretty much everyone". And e…
Not that people's bets mean much, but you can look at how financial markets expect rates to move using the interest rate futures market. These contracts allow you to infer what the market really expects rates to do (as people are putting their money where their mouth is - to the tune of billions of dollars rather than an off the cuff comment on a financial news show). Free data for the 30 day future contract/bet is a…
I don't work in the financial industry, but just as a bystander it seems clear to me that there are a lot of bond traders, like Bill Gross, who have strong interests in rates going up significantly. Just like small-cap, pump-and-dump scammers, they're trying to move markets with their sophist predictions.
I don't think there's much of a dispute that there'll be a regression to some mean. But judging by where people are actually putting their money, the time horizon appears to be much further away than many of the pundits would have us believe.
Also, Japan....
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not betting (gambling), it's insurance . Is insurance insane?
How could you call it insurance when you have no interest in the original security? What are you insurance against?
You can insure against possible negative outcomes of someone else's contracts.
e.g.) Party A and Party B sign a contract that Party B will pay Party A $X by some date. Party A has seperately agreed to pay you $0.9X shortly afterward.
You are a savvy businessperson and realize that Party A will not have $0.9X to pay you if the Party B fails to make their payment.
Party B is on the rocks after a nasty reorg, and you think the probability they fail to pay is significantly greater than 0.
You want to protect your business against this event. To do so, you purchase a Credit Default Swap from Party C for $0.05X that ensures the full $0.9X payment.
While Michael Barry was "speculating" using CDS's, you could also argue that he was "insuring" his firm against a housing crash, which did tank most investment vehicles.
Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed
#119To sum it up, despite there being regulations on CDOs the real problem still exists. That problem is that loans are easy to get the gov stamp. Thos makes it easy for new home owners to get loans. And this makes it easy for sales people to sell the loans. Much of this opinion article is based on an other article [0] which seems less doom and gloom and more about the shift to a majority of state sponsored loans. This i…
Why does the government need to be involved in mortgage lending at all? Is there a specific market failure inherent in it people can point to that calls for government intervention to overcome (akin to the public good failure for e.g. roads)?
That's why home ownership matters. It's a poor investment vehicle only if you assume people would invest savings from renting into appreciating assets, rather than burn it on consumables. They won't.
So, yeah, government is involved because it's a collective action problem. Individuals and the market left to their own devices will reach a suboptimal equilibrium.
Is home ownership the _only_ answer? No. The problem is fundamentally cultural. But in the U.S. especially, subsidizing home ownership seems to be the most viable mechanism we can, as a society, agree upon. Probably because of our emphasis on individualism. In a society that highly values individualism, people will be more incentivized to strive toward home ownership than other alternatives. We went them (us) to delay other, less economically efficient forms of gratification.
In some Asian societies, for example, different cultural preferences make alternatives more viable. For example, they're more likely to emphasize investment in education. I'm pretty sure the phrase "book learning" isn't derogatory in most Asian societies, even for low-skilled laborers who feel disenfranchised and lack any intellectual ambition. (Not that those things are necessarily related--I strung them together for emphasis.)
In any event, the point is to keep people invested in the economy in such as way that their individual choices tend toward more productive activities. It's a channeling function.