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America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

economist.com

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Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#41
post #32

Partly because the state charges too little for the guarantees it offers, taxpayers are subsidising housing borrowers to the tune of up to $150 billion a year, or 1% of GDP. The original post makes this claim without any citation. I don't think it is correct. Recent stress-test reports on Fannie and Freddie show that, even making provisions for future bailouts in the stressed scenario, the agencies are profitable to…

The claim of the article is more that current government policy has not correctly priced in the externalities caused by most mortgage funds ultimately being available through bonds rather than through bank deposits. "The public would have to foot the bill, of around $400 billion, making explicit the contingent liability for future losses that it already bears. The cost of mortgages, at a record low today, would also rise. But that would eliminate the ongoing hidden subsidy and create a level playing field so that private firms were able to do more mortgage lending. If that bill was too big to swallow, a second-best would be to impose the new rules on new mortgages, leaving the stock of subsidised existing loans to run down over the coming decades." Thanks, by the way, for linking to the Bloomberg article, about a different issue, but a good source in general for comments about economic policy.

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#42
One other thing to keep in mind is that there was a great boom in building in the US during the 1970s and 1980s, and many of the homes built during that period were built using substandard building materials and techniques, many of which are no longer up to code for new construction but were grandfathered in.

How many of those millions of homes are actually solid, reliable structures? How many suffer from moisture damage, mold, or have been poorly maintained? What kind of cement was used to pour the foundation? What kind of insulation? How many insect or rodent infestations has the house suffered?

There is a vast difference in quality between an old building in a city that has been renovated for apartments compared to a suburban home that has essentially gone unmaintained for decades and was built as part of a speculative housing development project by someone who had no long term interest in the quality of the construction.

I think we'll start to see a gradual crumbling/disintegration of suburbia as the houses fall into disrepair and the mortgage debtors are in too far over their heads to afford proper maintenance.

The right thing to do in 2008 would have been to let the prices fall and stay down, to encourage proper renovation and maintenance.

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#43

One other thing to keep in mind is that there was a great boom in building in the US during the 1970s and 1980s, and many of the homes built during that period were built using substandard building materials and techniques, many of which are no longer up to code for new construction but were grandfathered in. How many of those millions of homes are actually solid, reliable structures? How many suffer from moisture da…

Do you have any articles/books detailing construction practices during that time period? Also any numbers on what percent of housing in America was built during that time period.

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#44
The simplest approach would be ... The nationalised mortgage firms that guarantee the bonds ... should be forced to raise their capital buffers and increase their fees

Raising capital requirements seems like a minor tweak, a band-aid cure.

I would argue that the systemic risk could better be managed by changing the fundamental economics of the financial instrument in question: the classic residential mortgage.

I'm surprised the Economist didn't mention the short-selling idea which Richard Schiller has been pitching [1] since the Financial Crisis.

The basic idea is to make it possible to accurately short-sell residential real estate. This would allow homeowners and lenders to be partially protected against declines in real estate prices (the risk being transferred to third-party speculators and investors). Just like a lender requires homeowners to buy property insurance, it could also require homeowners to enter into financial protection against declines in property value. This would protect the homeowner against negative equity (where the property value falls significantly below the borrowed principal). It was because of negative equity that so many homeowners defaulted on their mortgages during the Financial Crisis, leading to a vicious cycle of foreclosures, sales and declining property values.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/upshot/the-housing-market-...

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#45
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still confused by the CDS bit. Is there a good eli5 article on it? I've already checked the eli5 subreddit and couldn't find anything specifically on the mechanism that allowed shorting.

A hand wavy analogy is that a CDS is bankruptcy insurance. So the guy in the movie got the bank to write him an insurance policy on the mortgages (really mortgage derivatives) that other people held. When those mortgages failed, the policy paid out.

I forgot the eli5 part.

Let's say you have a little sister. It's been a little while since she screamed about her stuffed frog, but you think she is going to do it again soon. You come to me and say that I can have one of the cookies out of your snack every day if I agree to give you a whole bag of cookies next time your sister screams about the frog.

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#46
post #32

Partly because the state charges too little for the guarantees it offers, taxpayers are subsidising housing borrowers to the tune of up to $150 billion a year, or 1% of GDP. The original post makes this claim without any citation. I don't think it is correct. Recent stress-test reports on Fannie and Freddie show that, even making provisions for future bailouts in the stressed scenario, the agencies are profitable to…

The post links to another article with a few more details:

[Imagine that the securitisation industry] had to carry the same level of capital as banks do and to make an adequate (10%) post-tax profit on that capital. The higher costs entailed give a sense of the scale of the current distortion. On this basis The Economist calculates the subsidy on mortgages to be running at $150 billion a year, 1% of GDP. (This estimate includes the impact of the Fed’s bond-buying on interest rates and the cost of tax breaks on mortgage-interest payments.)

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#47
House prices are like bond prices. When interest rates are low, prices go up. When rates rise, prices will fall. People buy houses based on the monthly payment they can qualify for. Right now, prices are high because the low interest rates mean lowish monthly payments on inflated prices. But when rates rise, the value of the houses will fall because buyers will not be able to qualify at the previous inflated prices. This will mean that a lot of homeowners will be underwater again. Even though they should be able to afford their payment, there will be a similar level of panic.

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 100x is more because companies weren't really able to sell these contracts. Instead, they'd make another one with the opposite position to mitigate their risk. In case of default, there'd be a lot of offsetting payments.

I think the comment is referring to the fact that one can write CDS on top of an underlying instrument. So, if I have $100 million in MBS, other parties, or even myself, can write CDS contracts that reference my $100 million MBS. What I have just done is to create more exposure than the underlying MBS. The MBS is still only $100 million, but the total outstanding contracts on the pool (MBS + CDS) is now much larger.…

[deleted]

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#49
post #32

Partly because the state charges too little for the guarantees it offers, taxpayers are subsidising housing borrowers to the tune of up to $150 billion a year, or 1% of GDP. The original post makes this claim without any citation. I don't think it is correct. Recent stress-test reports on Fannie and Freddie show that, even making provisions for future bailouts in the stressed scenario, the agencies are profitable to…

This stress test is assuming credit losses about a quarter of the size of the stress test 2 years ago, and much smaller than the last crisis (0.56% vs. 2% vs. 1.4%). Does anybody know if something has structurally improved in the Fannie/Freddie portfolios, or whether the testers are just less pessimistic than they were 2 years ago?

[1] http://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2016_DFA...

[2] http://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/GSEFinPr...

[3] https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/irasohnfin...

Re: America’s housing system still has not been properly reformed

#50
post #40

I'd agree that the US housing and derivatives markets are in a much better position than in 2007-2008. Atleast people who are getting mortgages now have some form of documentation, and risk manages are being asked to do their jobs. The crisis now is that, and this is just my opinion, low rates are here to stay. with the amount of money in the system, people are being priced out of homes and as time goes on the amount…

Pretty much everyone is saying that interest rates are going up in the US and are going to go up soon. Alan Greenspan just came out today saying people are going to be surprised how quickly they go up.

Why does Alan Greenspan's opinion have any weight? He is not in any kind of position to have control over rates.
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