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Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

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Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#61
Last summer I saw one of these autonomous Uber cars driving on a side road when I was leaving my office in the Lawrenceville neighborhood in Pittsburgh.

Was tempted to motion to jump in front of it to see how the car would react, but didn't...

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everybody wants to jump straight to 4, because 3 is actually dangerous and likely to cause deaths as people are lulled into a false sense of safety. The question is how long will it take? Some people say 2 years, some people say 20.

How much has the recent interest and investment in self-driving cars impacted this estimate? 5 years ago, I would have said that level 4 automation is 20 years away. With all these billions pouring in, I'd cut that projection in less than half. I'm certain that I won't be driving a car ever in 2030

How many billions have been poured into speech recognition? I don't anyone here would trust controlling a car with Siri or Google Voice lest it misinterpret something you said.

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#64
post #15

Ubiquitous comment, as a person within the industry: there's a big difference between cars that have a hands-free driving mode, and cars that do not have a driver. The latter will be an absolute game-changer; the former can yield some marginal gains in safety and congestion, but does not really shatter any paradigms. This is the former. The latter will certainly happen eventually, but is orders of magnitude more chal…

"As a person within the industry" has there been any talk about the paths driverless will take? New roadways? Attendant-less roadways? Change in existing designation of highways? How to accomodate 10-20 people (vehicles won't look like they do now)?

I envision future photos-videos of driver and driver less "vehicles" at a busy intersection just like horses and early cars.

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#65

Can anyone comment on the connection between Uber a company based in S.F. and Pittsburgh? Does this have to with proximity to CMU? Something else?

Maybe more open regulations, smaller city (they seem to be mapping all the streets) or better road-markings. Or a combination of these three.

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much has the recent interest and investment in self-driving cars impacted this estimate? 5 years ago, I would have said that level 4 automation is 20 years away. With all these billions pouring in, I'd cut that projection in less than half. I'm certain that I won't be driving a car ever in 2030

I think it actually doesn't make that much difference. The problem, I believe, is that people are used to rapid advances in software. Lots of small iterations can take you a long way, but sometimes you just reach a hurdle which requires a breakthrough. A fully self-driving car would need a huge breakthrough in perception (which most people categorize under AI) in order to work. Computer vision actually started out in…

Last time I checked Google's self driving car was doing pretty well already without major breakthroughs. I suppose there still are problems when the weather conditions are less than ideal, but you can't compare it to /r/shittyrobots.

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#67
post #54

I saw one of these a month ago when I was biking around the North Shore (downtown Pittsburgh). Its cameras on top were far more conspicuous than the renders in the article, though. This article said it would pick people up downtown, but how far would they go to drop off? The golden triangle is mostly grid-based, but go elsewhere in the city and the road topology gets jacked up fast (like Boston), especially in the so…

I wonder how it will handle the stop sign on the 376 on ramp in Squirrel Hill.

What makes this stop sign a challenge?

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#68
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same view here, current solutions are nothing more than Sunday drivers to me. They work well in good to near perfect conditions only where we actually need the least amount of self driving. Wheel less driving, first show me it drives in the pouring rain at night when the roads aren't lit. Show it having the ability to obey posted speed limits, adjust to construction, and the like. I am still surprised at how much cur…

Give me a car which self-drives for 4 months of the year, and requires me to drive it the other 8 months. That's still a massive advantage over the car I currently own.

Indeed but the context here are all the futuristic predictions starting with mass-unemployment of taxi and truck drivers (indeed that's what Uber is selling their market valuation on). If drivers are still needed 60% of the time, they're going nowhere.

The hype right now is so great that even if the reality is amazing it will be disappointing.

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much has the recent interest and investment in self-driving cars impacted this estimate? 5 years ago, I would have said that level 4 automation is 20 years away. With all these billions pouring in, I'd cut that projection in less than half. I'm certain that I won't be driving a car ever in 2030

I think it actually doesn't make that much difference. The problem, I believe, is that people are used to rapid advances in software. Lots of small iterations can take you a long way, but sometimes you just reach a hurdle which requires a breakthrough. A fully self-driving car would need a huge breakthrough in perception (which most people categorize under AI) in order to work. Computer vision actually started out in…

well, hasn't google driven around actual city streets for many millions of miles? I could be wrong, but driving a car doesn't actually require breakthroughs in perception beyond current technology, The issue is that it just isn't economical for individual car ownership at this stage, but it could very well make economic sense for a fleet of taxis. Note, those taxis don't have to have the ability to go just anywhere, they could have predefined routes

Re: Uber’s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month

#70
post #7

I wonder how Uber drivers feel about working for a company that is actively trying to make them obsolete. Not passing judgement or anything, just kind of a strange thing to contemplate.. Uber kept saying they were disrupting the taxi industry by letting more people participate when really in the end they're trying to remove the people from the equation altogether.

I always talk to the drivers about their feelings and so on when taking Uber. Maybe my data is skewed but most accept it as inevitable and are not worried much as they have other side jobs. The cab drivers are the ones who must be anxious. It will be really bad if they cannot be retrained for other jobs as it will add to the existing frustration around automation. We simply cannot afford to leave people out as we mov…

I guess we should still be using horse and buggies then. How dare we leave buggy drivers behind.

Change is inevitable. And for many people, painful. If the automation revolution occurs too fast, it will be a pretty economically painful transition period for a large chunk of humanity. On the other hand, if the transition is really really fast, the painful period may not last too long. Most things will become so cheap and abundant that most people won't have to work, or we will transition society to a 10-hour work week or something.

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