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Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#71

Post by tcoppi »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #28
eric_arrr wrote: post #25

I've got your prospectus right here: http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-t...

And http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Clima... As soon as we hit $100/kWh in the next year or two, that oil is worthless [1] (Tesla will supposedly hit this target when the Gigafactory is at full capacity). Clean energy investments year over year: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9... [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/en...

There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#72

Post by neptunespear »

Saudi Aramco's IPO would never have happened without Prince Mohammad bin Salman (Salman might be the king, and Mohammad bin Nayef might be the crown prince, but MbS is "Mr. Everything") consolidating power and courtiers.

Okay, HN, crush my expectations. How is MbS not actually the liberal reformer that western media fawns over and says he is?

Also, what odds do you you have on rival factions in the House of Saud ganging up on MbS and pulling a King Faisal? I have 15/1 odds that the other princes will at least attempt to push him out of prominence (they probably won't kill him)--the Saudi royal family has 15,000 princes, after all.

Finally, I think that "perestroika, GCC style" might be the best or the worst thing to happen in the Middle East in over 50 years. Think about it. Iran has used its large, wealthy, well-educated population (80 million people) to maintain a geopolitical foothold in the Middle East and Central Asia, even under crushing international sanctions. With an absolute theocratic monarchy, an old-world economic structure based on clan ties, and a population of only 32 million (21 million if you subtract out the expatriate population), Saudi has been able to amass otherworldly concentrations of wealth. Imagine how much change those Saudi trillions could do for the country, the region and the world at large the if MbS's dream of a post-oil economy and economic liberalization came through. (Plus, Saudi gets on the good side of the west so it doesn't have to worry about sanctions.) Imagine if Saudi's population boomed and became more and more educated. 40, 50, 60 million. Imagine how the geopolitical fisticuffs with the Ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guard might turn into a détente, or get even worse.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#73

Post by codecamper »

tcoppi wrote: post #71
toomuchtodo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Clima... As soon as we hit $100/kWh in the next year or two, that oil is worthless [1] (Tesla will supposedly hit this target when the Gigafactory is at full capacity). Clean energy investments year over year: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9... [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/en...

There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.

heating with oil is expensive. solar panels actually can heat well. just heat a block of concrete. the concrete is the battery. electrodacus is doing this now.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#74

Post by tcoppi »

neptunespear wrote: post #72

Saudi Aramco's IPO would never have happened without Prince Mohammad bin Salman (Salman might be the king, and Mohammad bin Nayef might be the crown prince, but MbS is "Mr. Everything") consolidating power and courtiers. Okay, HN, crush my expectations. How is MbS not actually the liberal reformer that western media fawns over and says he is? Also, what odds do you you have on rival factions in the House of Saud gang…

Even assuming that's the kind of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman wants, it will take generations to lift the people off the oil teat and into a productive western, capitalist economy. It might just barely be starting to pay off near the end of his lifetime, and that's being pretty optimistic IMO. He isn't just fighting the economy either, but the cultural and religious attitudes of the people.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#75

Post by tcoppi »

codecamper wrote: post #73
tcoppi wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.

heating with oil is expensive. solar panels actually can heat well. just heat a block of concrete. the concrete is the battery. electrodacus is doing this now.

Burning natural gas is among the cheapest forms of heating we have, and it works 24/7/365 and at all latitudes. Solar heating using a slab as a heat reserve requires re-engineering houses completely and may be impossible in a lot of places that don't get a lot of sun during the coldest months.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#76

Post by paulsutter »

acchow wrote: post #62
paulsutter wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi Aramco's annual revenue is over $300B, and their reserves are more than 260 billion barrels. Oil prices have ranged from $15-ish to $140-ish since 1990. So $2 trillion doesn't seem outlandish at all for Aramco. Early angel investors in Uber have made about 10,000x, plus or minus, so even if you're right there's no potential for shorting Aramco to be the best investment ever (Uber's seed round was at 4 millionis…

> Oil prices have ranged from $15-ish to $140-ish since 1990. What is the relevance of past oil prices in the future? Especially in light of photovoltaics?

If you have a conviction about oil prices that's a really easy bet to make.

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#77

Post by [deleted] »

codecamper wrote: post #73
tcoppi wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.

heating with oil is expensive. solar panels actually can heat well. just heat a block of concrete. the concrete is the battery. electrodacus is doing this now.

[deleted]

Re: Saudi Aramco Plans World's Biggest IPO

#79

Post by finnh »

> It's valued at more than $2 trillion — or about four times the biggest technology giants

Powerful reminder of how pervasive & huge the energy economy is.

... now imagine that, if you refined oil to reduce its mass by a factor of a million or so, you ended up with an edible substance that extended your lifespan by DECADES.

Stakes is high, right? Nicely done, Frank Herbert.

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