51–60 of 103 posts
The company is valued at $2 trillion, the value of the IPO is expected to be 5% of that. Title seems misleading...
Yes, and also rewritten in a way that breaks the HN guidelines. We've replaced it with a subtitle from the article. (Submitted title was 'Saudi Aramco Announces Largest IPO in history valued at $2 trillion'.)
hm, just $100,000,000,000 for less than 5% of Saudi Aramco. That's quite low, valuing themselves at 2 trillion. Prior pie in the sky estimates had put them at 10 trillion dollar company. So maybe after the independent audit they'll release the shares, wall street traders will bid it up 500% and then they'll impress everyone with that share price performance and 10 trillion dollar valuation.
10 trillion is crazy! the US GDP is 16 trillion and world economy worth 100 trillion, to think one company worth this much is ....
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Production is analogous to revenue, and is the wrong measurement. Reserves matter more for market cap.
ok, still they have %20 of world reserve. so oil reserves worth 10 billions and %10 of world economy! in US we have more oil consumption than any other nation, do you spend %10 of your money on oil???
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Production is analogous to revenue, and is the wrong measurement. Reserves matter more for market cap.
ok, still they have %20 of world reserve. so oil reserves worth 10 billions and %10 of world economy! in US we have more oil consumption than any other nation, do you spend %10 of your money on oil???
So, yes, I do.
I'm curious about their long-term outlook. My understanding is that OPEC counties are currently desperate enough for money that they can't agree to limit output, thereby forcing the price further down. Anyone have better insight here?
Saudies want Iran to cut production too, but Iran was forced to cut production because of sanctions and they missed lots of revenue when oil price was high. Iran is not going to cut production or cap it. Saudies have 2 bad choices let the prices fall or stay the same or let cut production and let Iran get more revenue and lose market share to her.
They also want to prevent any investment in Iran oil sector by lower the lure of potential windfall from foreign investors until the next US administration is in power to potentially reverse Obama's policy.
This may well be the biggest attempt ever to get out at the right time
Peak Oil, then?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Production is analogous to revenue, and is the wrong measurement. Reserves matter more for market cap.
ok, still they have %20 of world reserve. so oil reserves worth 10 billions and %10 of world economy! in US we have more oil consumption than any other nation, do you spend %10 of your money on oil???
Say they have 60% net margin and market discount rate is 5%, fair value would be $180 bn * 0.6 * 20 which gets you comfortably past 2 trillion. Their revenue is over double Google.
What happens when US mutual funds and retirement funds are invested in this stock?
Will the mutual funds lobby the US Government to put sanctions on Iran to give Saudis more output and more revenue to ultimately benefit the funds?
What happens if Saudis are linked further to 9/11 or to other activities that goes against US' interests. Will the banking sector lobby the congress against taking any actions against Saudis?
If it were possible to get in short on this (it's usually not, right after an IPO), that would be the best investment decision anyone's ever made. $2 trillion is ridiculous. Remember when PetroChina hit $1 trillion market cap in 2007, and it was supposed to be a huge milestone for publicly-traded state oil firms? Now they're at a little over a tenth of that. Every reason to expect that the same thing will happen here…
Early angel investors in Uber have made about 10,000x, plus or minus, so even if you're right there's no potential for shorting Aramco to be the best investment ever (Uber's seed round was at 4 millionish, and the current valuation is 60 billionish).