It appears like the logical conclusion of capitalism: the majority of people being made redundant due to AI/automation, and a small handful of corporations basically ruling the world.
Compare this to the logical conclusion of capitalism that Marx put forward 150 years ago. For him, capitalism creates an ever-growing proletariat, a majority of the population being transformed into a commodity; individuals become interchangeable, and are payed only enough to have their basic needs met. The proletariat as a whole was a necessary condition though. Their labor produced value, the surplus of which went…
The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
201–210 of 245 posts
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
It depends on your definition of good. Programming is an office job with low customer interaction (most times), but on the other hand, you might be working quite a bit of overtime or be subjected to meeting after meeting. All without having a decent vacation or sick leave policy. I'd argue that such things like limits on workweeks, paid sick days that do not risk jobs, and 3-4 weeks off a year (mandatory!) would mean…
Perhaps this is a geographical problem. I've always had paid time off, sick time etc as a working programmer. But I have been working in Europe. I know Americans get less sick time and vacation time but I'm pretty sure it's more than nothing. Being subject to too many meetings is a pain but most workers would hardly see it as a major quality of life issue.
There is no such thing in the states. While some companies give vacation, a lot of folks have trouble taking more than a few days off at a time even if they have 3 weeks worth. A few give sick time - paid vacation, but it still counts negatively towards attendance at times. Yet still more folks get absolutely none of this. Admittedly, a lot of programmers won't get this short end, but they probably feel pressure to work even when sick and sometimes have trouble taking vacation time.
There are federal laws that grant some unpaid leave for serious injury only if you work at a qualifying company for a long enough time. A few companies will give partial pay and some folks buy insurance to cover such things.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#203E-Rivals === Amazon. Amazon uses lots of robots for their distribution centers -- they even purchased a robotics company and the subsidiary is called Amazon Robotics.
I still think the major issue is trade agreements and the importation of foreign labor in using H1-B visas to replace STEM (think Disney and Abbott Pharma replacing their IT workers with H1-B visas) and H2-A and H2-B visas replacing blue collar workers. Do the numbers. The technology is sensationalizing.
Although Amazon replacing Macy's is Internet automation and Robots in the warehouses.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
True in theory, but Spain has been in a state of mass unemployment (>20% unemployment rate, >40% youth unemployment rate) since 2010, and it still is among the top 25 safest countries in the world ( http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/safest-countries-in-the-w... ). Portugal has been over 13% unemployment rate since 2011, and it's the 5th country in the world by that same index.
I would imagine they have much better social safety nets than in the US. In the US, if you are unable to work, for whatever reason, you are pretty much on your own.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
So poor people are a bunch of stationary bandits and we pay them money in tribute to prevent them from harming us? What horrible people you make them out to be. (Note: I have no problem with people who sell drugs or sex and think both should be legal. I'm referring specifically to theft here.) I'm not sure why we need to accept this increased crime tradeoff. Why can't we (here "we" refers to folks who are willing to…
Most aren't, but some are, and as there is no way to separate the good from the bad you have to take this into account. I'm just pointing out the main flaw in this plan and the reason it (as far as I know) has never been implemented. You can argue against a strawman all you like but it's not going to solve any problems.
It's certainly a fallacy to say that a plan is impossible because no one has done it before; everything has a first time. It's irrelevant in this case, however. FDR implemented it, it was called the Civilian Conservation Corp and it was awesome - we got a national park system out of the deal. India does it too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rural_Employment_Guar...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps
South Africa and Argentina have similar programs but I don't know as much about them.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
Businesses have been doing everything in their power to reduce the cost of programmers. Offshoring, lobbying the H1B system, Agile, get everyone to code initiatives, overly broad non-competes, etc. One day they will get it, but they haven't figured it out yet. Imagine how much programmers would make if they were unionized. I would imagine at least double.
You'd have to unionize globally though, and that'd be very hard. The incentives to undercut a unionised workforce are massive. Yes there's been some outsourcing but I also know many companies that are squeamish about remote work and insist on having local workers even in high cost localities. Unionised workforce and constant strikes would get rid of that squeamishness double quick time.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not from India but I spend a lot of time there. Most people don't have a full time maid. They have a maid who comes daily (or maybe 3x/week) and also works for others. This is quite feasible economically in the US - suppose cleaning a home takes 2 hours and a maid accepts $10/hour. That's $20/day or $430/month (assuming 5x/week). So in the US you could get comparable levels of service for maybe $1000/month. It's…
The thing is, there really isn't a market for a huge number of maids when it costs $1000/month, and you can't really go below that because, as you say, $10/hour.. about the minimum wage in many places. The middle class in USA definitelly can't afford to pay $12k/year (plus taxes!) for such a service. The most highly paid white collar professions would generally scoff at such an expense. At best, the top 1% could affo…
All I'm proposing is that we restructure things so that instead of getting nothing for your money you get something.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
beep beep I. am. a. person. I want... prooo ductive. I want... puur pose. I will. Take the orders. From a capital-supplier. To prooo duce economic vallll-ue. I. am. Totally. Not. a robot. beep beep /s Seriously, though? People want to be exploited because they need a wage-paying employer to give them purpose ? Then where are all the people who don't work for someone else getting this much-vaunted "purpose", eh? Whate…
Does humans have any value outside of what they can offer to corporations? Would there even be any point to keeping humans around?
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is a matter of how that job offer is set up. If the terms are "pick one of these 100 government jobs or we cut your benefits" then clearly the people you will get for that job will be different than your standard public school teacher, who is supposed to have studied for that job (at least that is how it is in Germany). IF on the other hand you establish child care as a proper job that people can take or leave, ju…
As I said repeatedly above, the basic job guarantee is just another job. It pays primarily in-kind benefits (i.e. rooms in govt dorms, govt cafeteria food, etc) and little money, and it's available to anyone who wants it. Also welfare is eliminated the day we create the basic job (or after some phase-in period, more realistically). So basically yes, the government will pay for an army of child carers, an army of infr…
This did not seem to work for Soviet Union (and its reluctant allies), and market realities still exposed themselves - if you wanted to hire a government plumber, repairman, electrician, dentist, etc., you were welcome to sign up for a long waiting list or miss a few appointments here and there, because hey, what exactly is the accountability here? They won't fire you.
If you actually needed to get the job done, be prepared to offer a generous tip, which in absence of solid money would have to be something bartered (vodka, spare car parts and gold were among the unofficial currencies pervasive in USSR).
Once such economy evolves, even the people who were trying to put in a minimal effort at their government-sponsored job just stop, because they feel they're getting the shorter end of the stick than the guy accepting generous gifts. Moreover, people at the occupations that are not typically monetized in a market economy (librarians, for example) start thinking of good ways to establish some barriers to force consumers towards such generosity (by withholding high-demand books, not providing information in a timely manner, etc.) Now a portion of a population is on an active mission to create problems in society rather than solve them, as their additional monetization efforts depend on existence of such problems.
This second-order effect seems to penalize the poor (and un-connected) even harsher than before.
Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs
#210Technology has been reducing the need for human labor since the invention of the plow. And yet we aren't all unemployed hunter-gatherers. You could argue that 'this time it's different', but you have to at least acknowledge that luddites of every generation have made similar claims and been wrong every time. Literally tried and proven wrong for centuries.
http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/humans-need-not-apply What is different this time, I think is that we're giving up our main advantage: Intelligence. Humans have always been able to fall back on work no animal/machine can do, but we're running out of work that machines can't do.
Grey ignores the idea that technology also allows for normal people to do jobs that used to require highly skilled specialists. A big part of this is so called 'brain' labor. A banker before computers had to have amortization tables manually calculated. Now the personal banker who does your HELOC probably doesn't even know basic algebra. If we ran technology in reverse and took away the calculators we would end up with fewer banking jobs not more. Because every banker would have to be highly specialized and costly. The "factory jobs" were originally an invention of technology. A method to take a large number of workers + automation to beat artisans and specialists. If Watson is doing diagnosis, that means that more people with less training can be effective 'doctors'.
Which brings me to my second point. Often when things become more efficient we end up using more of them overall. Jevon's paradox applied to labor. Think of what it cost to transport 20 tons of cargo from NY to SF before trucking and standardized containers. How many man hours were involved? How many different specialized jobs? Now done by one guy with a truck replacing them all. Yet the number of people employed overall in transportation went up not down. IMHO the best example is IT. Think about the server admin ratios in the early days. Perhaps a team of 10 to maintain a single mainframe. Now we have 10 guys in a data center managing 50,000 servers. Yet the overall number of people employed in IT went up not down. As processes become more efficient and cheap we consume more of it at an increasing rate.