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The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

washingtonpost.com

21–30 of 245 posts

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#21
post #5

What if people with jobs worked less ?

1) Why would you pay them the same for less work? 2) Once a machine can do the job, why would you hire a human at all?

>2) Once a machine can do the job, why would you hire a human at all?

Because we need a point in our lives, otherwise we will make up some gods and start killing each other. Jobs keep us busy, keep revolts down. Most frustrated and aggressive people are those without jobs and daily schedules.

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#22
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what does he think that having high living standard is about, other than burning resources? By his definition of efficiency, a dead planet is the most efficient.

The burning of resources by robots doesn't by itself contribute to a higher living standard, unless you're measuring the living standard of robots :-)

[deleted]

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#23

Simon Funk [1] makes a great point that in a mixed capitalist/welfare state, automation decreases efficiency. Imagine a worker, earning the bare minimum to survive, who gets replaced by a robot with slightly lower operating cost. Now the robot is consuming slightly fewer resources that the worker would have, but the worker doesn't stop consuming resources in turn! Unless you're willing to kill the worker, he goes on…

I think the decision to automate is usually based on the capital cost of the automation, with the productivity/consumption ratio of the automation usually being higher than the displaced workers.

Take a robot truck. The difference in energy consumption per mile will be nil, but the auto truck can easily and safely drive 168 hours a week, compared to the death march legal limit for humans, 70 hours.

The per mile cost of the automation system will also likely be close to nil (a few tens of thousands of dollars amortized over a million miles).

So a system that isn't really more expensive (compare the up front cost of the automation to several years of labor) is more than twice as effective.

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#24

Simon Funk [1] makes a great point that in a mixed capitalist/welfare state, automation decreases efficiency. Imagine a worker, earning the bare minimum to survive, who gets replaced by a robot with slightly lower operating cost. Now the robot is consuming slightly fewer resources that the worker would have, but the worker doesn't stop consuming resources in turn! Unless you're willing to kill the worker, he goes on…

I think the decision to automate is usually based on the capital cost of the automation, with the productivity/consumption ratio of the automation usually being higher than the displaced workers. Take a robot truck. The difference in energy consumption per mile will be nil, but the auto truck can easily and safely drive 168 hours a week, compared to the death march legal limit for humans, 70 hours. The per mile cost…

[deleted]

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#25
the underlying message from the top is rather brutal (or with a healthy dose of realism?): "No matter if you're farmer, factory worker or good with your hands, learn to code or be prepared to get swept away."

Obama's message to the kids about learning to code: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XvmhE1J9PY

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#26

What if people with jobs worked less ?

For jobs where 40 hours per week has basically the same productivity as 30 hours per week, that's fine. For jobs where context is important (medicine, software), 'working less' will cause a disproportionate hit to productivity. Some problems you can't throw more people at. That's more or less the thesis of the Mythical Man-Month, and it applies to many careers. Though there are probably plenty of careers (like driving trucks, certain kinds of teaching) where you can lighten the work load and hire more.

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#28
post #20
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think through the eyes of idealism. Consider this You are the owner of a fortune 500 company You need to hire enough people to fullfill 1600 hours a day, 14 days per paycheck. You want to hire the people as cheaply as possible. If the individual knows they only have to work 20 hrs per week to survive, they have the power to negotiate. If the individual believes that they have to work two jobs for 60 hrs per week…

One may also pay pennies for bullets, likely better to move both you AND your money overseas while you still can.

Is this a threat? This will happen everywhere. There is no escape. Big brother will be watching, already are. This isnt some new crazy concept. This is why unions exist, strikes occur, nationalism and anti-immigration is prevalent. The difference now is that the replacements are truly dumb and spineless while before they were simply desperate enough to pretend

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#29

Simon Funk [1] makes a great point that in a mixed capitalist/welfare state, automation decreases efficiency. Imagine a worker, earning the bare minimum to survive, who gets replaced by a robot with slightly lower operating cost. Now the robot is consuming slightly fewer resources that the worker would have, but the worker doesn't stop consuming resources in turn! Unless you're willing to kill the worker, he goes on…

One more for the huge but reliably fruitless pile of good arguments for an unconditional basic income: with an UBI, it becomes possible for the worker to outprice the robot even at a rate below the survival minimum. E.g. to consume 1.5x resources total compared to bare survival, which would still be less than the nearly 2x of unemployed+robot.

(edit:typo)

Re: The brave new world of robots and lost jobs

#30
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't all of the money that was going into the operating cost of the robot still end up in human pockets? Instead of going to the worker it goes to robot developers, robot maintainers, and energy companies. Then the argument it increases inequality, but that's been the case since industrial machinery happened, as Piketty showed.

Don't think about money, that only confuses things. Think about resources instead. Imagine that the worker burns oil to survive, and the robot also burns oil to function. Now replacing the worker with the robot makes the economy burn twice as much oil for the same amount of production (assuming the worker goes on welfare). If you think in terms of money and pockets, the picture will be more complicated, but the end r…

This logic is full of holes. A robot can, by not needing to rest, be vastly more productive than the same person. The robot can be designed to never make a mistake too. Indeed, automation of all aspects of bread production would increase the bread supply. And the person needed bread either way, so unless you're saying that their death is the alternative, what they do with their day is irrelevant. And about fuel, I guess "burns oil" tugs at more heartstrings than "burns solar energy."
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