What's the likely scenarios for an employee whose been there for 2 years, an employee whose been there for 1 year, and an employee whose been there for 6 months? If we assume 1 year cliff on options.
Very much napkin math, take with salt: $3b purchase price + $300m in Walmart options The company raised $500-800m at at least a $1b valuation, no idea on later round(s), seem less reported, maybe a downish round? Investor liquidation preference guarantees investors get their money back 1x or 2x or 3x or whatever (assuming they don't lose all of it). So if they raised at a $1b valuation, sell for $3b, a 2x preference…
If the employees/common share holders are splitting say $1B, an employee's 1% is actually much more. It wouldn't be surprising to think the investor's preferred shares were ~50% of the equity or more, leaving the common shares with the remaining 50%. That employee's 1% is actually 2% of the remaining, so ~$20M using the numbers above.