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When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

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Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#231

Post by nl »

giardini wrote: post #191
losteric wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your anecdotes are not data.

The evidence is far more than anecdotal. Anyone who is an active tool user could provide more - ask your local mechanic. The experience I describe is almost universal and transcends the term "anecdodal". Here's some bedside reading: 'What’s in a tool? A case for Made in USA': http://hackaday.com/2016/01/18/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-ma... Discussion of the same: https://build.slashdot.org/story/16/01/18/213236/whats-…

I'm not from the US or China.

I think that outside the US, the reputation of US-made good has never been particularly strong. We see US cars, and compare them to Japanese cars and see mostly failings.

So far as Chinese goods go, I have no particular knowledge of wrenches.

However, I'd note that (Chinese made) Apple products are generally of pretty good quality.

I'd also point out that the ZeroHedge article doesn't really make a strong case that quality is decreasing at all. And you realize the Onion is a parody, right?

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#232

Post by idra »

Haven't noticed that anyone is talking about the fact that just a week ago, the Chinese government issued a press release about "legalizing" ride-sharing apps [1][2]. Article 21 of the new law, which should take effect this November, basically says that subsidizing the drivers would be illegal, effectively killing Uber's strategy.

The Uber case is classic in China, governemnt using "laws and regulations" to kill foreign businesses. Didi's competitive advantage was just being Chinese, nothing else. Now that Uber has surrendered, I wonder if the regulations will actually be implemented.

[1] http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-07/28/c_129186192.ht... (Official press release in Chinese)

[2] https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/28/china-issues-guidelines-to... (Article in English)

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#233

Post by ittekimasu »

morgante wrote: post #75
tiatia wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a…

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

US economy grew only by 1.3% (as opposed to the expected 2.3%); the news sent XAU and JPY soaring. The silver cloud was that the consumer spending still looked decent; such tariffs without massive structural changes to the US manufacturing will come with a recession.

People don't understand why people manufacture in China - it's less about wages now, and more about logistics. Considering the global decline in demand, it's unlikely US (or any others in S. Asia / Africa) will be able to repeat the China/Asian Tiger story on such a mass scale.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#234

Post by ittekimasu »

giardini wrote: post #105
morgante wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." WHAT supply chain? There is NO supply chain anymore. JIT (Just-In-Time) inventory has been replaced by BLTN (Better-Late-Than-Never) and AGNM (Ain't-Got-No-More) inventory. Went to a large box store on the weekend. They had empty containers marked "Display" on the shelves. Two different employees explained that I shoul…

Sounds like when it was the 60s and Japan was on the rise. It's almost as if, people in the occident have collective amnesia.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#235

Post by ittekimasu »

jomamaxx wrote: post #208
morgante wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." This is false. China is not the sole or important supplier of most things. Vietname, India etc. are becoming capable of providing labour and supply chain. A 10% tariff would be fair. Besides, something needs to be done to balance trade. Right now China is cheating by claiming they are open, whey they are not. The West…

Vietnam/Thailand are already in the supply chain (where do you think all your cameras/hard disks come from ?). India barely has a manufacturing sector.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#236

Post by nl »

klodolph wrote: post #36
skynetv2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China ended up with last generate tech we are way past that point. China has leap frogged pretty much everyone else in every aspect. It took China less than a year to build the worlds fastest supercomputer (unclassified) after US placed restrictions on related technology exports to China. China was building components for supercomputers over the past decade, they would show case a network, a small processor, coolin…

You're looking at the PR, look at the actual technology. Anyone can build a big enough supercomputer if you throw enough money at the problem. This high level of spending is getting hard to justify, however, because most of the problems you want to solve can't be solved just by throwing another order of magnitude of computing power at the problem. Building a supercomputer becomes a bit of a boondoggle, a public-relat…

SMIC is down to 28nm now[1]. I agree this isn't competitive yet, but they are working on 14nm[2] with some reasonably credible partners (including Qualcomm), scheduled to be delivered by 2020.

That would close the gap to Intel/Samsung/TSMC to one generation.

[1] http://www.smics.com/eng/press/press_releases_details.php?id...

[2] http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1326948

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#237

Post by ittekimasu »

muninn_ wrote: post #118
conanbatt wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it a problem if China develops a higher GDP than the US. Its not a problem for the people. It might be a problem to politicians that want to tell a story, but wishing china to do worse economically is truly backwards. If china comes out with better technology than the us, better products and services, cheaper and all that, the whole world gets better. If you dont believe that, then you must for the sake of con…

China's GDP compared to it's population is interesting. 3-4 times the population of the US but 80% of the GDP. To me it only seems natural that they will eventually overtake the United States in GDP. India should too, as should the EU

It's hardly that simple. China/Korea/Thai/Vietnam/India... were economically at the same level at the turn of WWII - India was probably in better shape. Now India is comparable only to S-Saharan Africa (and other S.Asian countries), in terms of educational attainment/malnourishment ...

Systems matter; it's not surprising that deeply colonized countries remain basket cases. It's likely that China will be the last nation to "re-industrialize" in the near term.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#238

Post by molmalo »

diego_moita wrote: post #30

> Uber felt it was treated fairly by a government > my guess is that if [...] had been more successful, China would have put a Mao-sized thumb on the scales. This is how it lost me, it shows how light he is on facts. I do agree with the 2 statements "China is protectionist" and "protectionism is bad". But I am cynical enough to see that everyone carefully pics which protectionism they complain about. As a Brazilian I…

This. As an Argentinian, I totally agree. I read a lot of comments from Americans complaining about protectionism in other countries, and their government tells everyone else that they should open their markets, but USA has several sectors in which protectionism is very strong.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#239

Post by MarkMc »

vinceguidry wrote: post #220
jcoffland wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is repressive and has very low standards for human rights. If China becomes more powerful they may decide to conquer the US properly. This may be along way off but this is the fear that's behind not wanting China to surpass the US economically.

> If China becomes more powerful they may decide to conquer the US properly. That's utterly hilarious. If there's a world in which that's even remotely possible, we'll all be long, long dead by the time it happens.

I wouldn't be so sure.

China's GDP per capita is currently about 14% of the United States [1]. That's roughly the same ratio that Japan faced in 1960, yet within 30 years Japan overtook the US in GDP per capita [2].

My view is that China has a number of economic and demographic disadvantages that mean in 30 years China is 'only' likely to reach 30-50% of US GDP per capita. But with a population projected to be 3 times the US [3], China's overall GDP will be greater than the US. In 30 years.

And once that happens, how long will it take for China's military power to exceed the United States? You might be dead, but your grandchildren will certainly see it happen.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no...

[2] Based on the Google graph when you search "Japan GDP per capita", etc.

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_gr...

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#240

Post by dingaling »

danielrhodes wrote: post #155
chillydawg wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need much espionage when western companies are literally sending specs for their products to be manufactured in China.

I visited an Airbus factory and on the floor were dozens of pallets filled with parts ready to be loaded on a ship headed for China. The tour guide said that in order for big orders of Airbus planes to be made from China, Airbus had agreed to do final assembly in China. Boeing on the other hand, he smirked, did not agree to this and subsequently didn't get the orders (this has since changed and Boeing is doing the sa…

> I will bet that in 5-10 years, China will start manufacturing its own airplanes.

China has been manufacturing aircraft since the 1930s, and its own designs since the 1950s.

Many of its aircraft of the 20th Century were reverse-engineered derivatives of Soviet types, but there were also indigenous designs which sold fairly well globally such as the Harbin Y-12 light turbrprop.

Their indigenous first jet-powered airliner, the Shaanxi Y-10, flew in 1980.

The current C919 airliner project uses the same LEAP engines as the A230Neo and 737Max:

http://english.comac.cc/Galleries/Photo/201512/25/W020151225...

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