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When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

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Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#181

Post by notfromhere »

Theodores wrote: post #112
narrator wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west's critical flaw is that it believes its own propaganda. The "Washington Consensus" believed that no country could develop or resist the temptations of the "superior" culture and understanding of the western financial system and industry. That the countries that they were moving into were hopeless without their intelligence and guidance and would quickly fall in line and become dependent and helpless without…

You are right about the arrogance of the Western Consensus. It is group-corporate-narcissism, that group being the 'leaders' in politics, business and elsewhere. I think that group-narcissism got the better of Uber. Is Uber likely to be headed up by high-functioning narcissists? Well, let's start with the name, dictionary definition being: 'Uber - denoting an outstanding or supreme example of a particular kind of per…

It's hard to compete when the government sets the rules against you. The reason Western firms have failed in China is because they allow just enough entry to transfer technology, then promptly stack the rules against foreign firms when a local competitor arises. It's not the technology, its the fact that the rules are stacked against them

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#182

Post by notfromhere »

danielrhodes wrote: post #155
chillydawg wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need much espionage when western companies are literally sending specs for their products to be manufactured in China.

I visited an Airbus factory and on the floor were dozens of pallets filled with parts ready to be loaded on a ship headed for China. The tour guide said that in order for big orders of Airbus planes to be made from China, Airbus had agreed to do final assembly in China. Boeing on the other hand, he smirked, did not agree to this and subsequently didn't get the orders (this has since changed and Boeing is doing the sa…

Airbus is going to regret that decision. The old adage about capitalists selling the noose that hangs them holds true

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#184

Post by xapata »

rpgmaker wrote: post #91
tiatia wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a…

There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given t…

Another way to look at it: if you think Trump won't go through with his insanities, you're not scared enough.

One example: Trump said he would refuse to honor US debts, just as he has successfully refused to honor his own debts so many times. Even the smallest credible threat of devaluing US Treasury bonds would be an economic disaster.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#185

Post by trevelyan »

morgante wrote: post #75
tiatia wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a…

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

The United States is already dealing with economic problems caused by the Chinese trade deficit, which siphons almost as much demand from the economy every year as Obama's 2008 stimulus added in a one-time shot. So it is an interesting question and certainly not one-sided....

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-g...

A trade war would theoretically cause a deadweight loss in global GDP, but as long as the US is not at full employment it is likely losses would end up distributed almost entirely on the Chinese side. Domestic losses would only take place after the return to full employment. Restructuring costs would also be imposed disproportionately on China because they'd be the ones dealing with insufficient demand.

Sure, a better alternative from a conventional economic perspective would be having the United States ramp up spending. The problem is that just printing more USD to enable this causes its own set of problems given that the USD is the world's reserve currency. Having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt avoids this problem, but does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan.

Political outcomes? My sense is that we'd see an upsurge in nationalism in China, perhaps more aggression in the South China Seas, but also a rapid collapse in the Chinese economy that would make coming to terms with the trade deficit a political priority. And is it really crazy for the West to demand a level playing field in exchange for its willingness to keep China from economic collapse?

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#186

Post by avar »

joe_the_user wrote: post #77
erdevs wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. I think this was a combination of fear that isolating China vs creating a high degree of economic interdependence could lead to war down the line, and a lack of control over Western companie…

Your comment sounds like it's coming from ten years ago or something. China may (or may not, for all I know) have beaten the West in the game of getting the technology it wants but the country has enough structural problems that it's chances of getting ahead of the West broadly are looking very dim. Problems: Horrific pollution, huge loans to inefficient state-run industries, massive real state and infrastructure mal…

    > Horrific pollution
Like how the US had horrible pollution during and after the industrial revolution and never got anywhere?

China's going to get their Clean Air Act. Just give it some time.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#187

Post by dragonwriter »

trevelyan wrote: post #185
morgante wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

The United States is already dealing with economic problems caused by the Chinese trade deficit, which siphons almost as much demand from the economy every year as Obama's 2008 stimulus added in a one-time shot. So it is an interesting question and certainly not one-sided.... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-g... A trade war would theoretically cause a deadweight loss in global GDP, but as l…

> and having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt instead does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan.

But the Chinese aren't the ones that will end up collecting interest on additional US debt; while they are the biggest current foreign holder of US debt, their total holdings are dropping; they not only aren't the biggest purchaser of new US debt, they aren't even a net purchaser of US debt. (And they are only the biggest foreign holder, most US federal debt is owed to...entities within the US; non-federal US entities hold 4 times as much US debt as China does.)

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#188

Post by morgante »

trevelyan wrote: post #185
morgante wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

The United States is already dealing with economic problems caused by the Chinese trade deficit, which siphons almost as much demand from the economy every year as Obama's 2008 stimulus added in a one-time shot. So it is an interesting question and certainly not one-sided.... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-g... A trade war would theoretically cause a deadweight loss in global GDP, but as l…

> And is it really crazy for the West to demand a level playing field in exchange for keeping China from economic collapse?

I think the US should demand that China reduce restrictions, not that we should increase them.

> government take on additional interest-bearing debt instead does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan

Why not? Personally, I find the obsession with debt entirely counterproductive. If the government can seemingly borrow endless sums of money with incredibly low interest, why not borrow as much as we can?

Especially since, as you said, we could actually benefit from a bit more inflation.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#189

Post by akiselev »

jdietrich wrote: post #174
akiselev wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is not China. Where in China is TSMC building cutting edge semiconductor fab?

The Republic of China is not recognised by the UN. It is no more a state than Transnistria or South Ossetia.

Comparing Taiwan, which has been functionally independent of the PRC and under control of the ROC since 1945, to South Ossetia or Transnistria is absolutely ridiculous. Just because Taiwan isn't widely recognized by the international community doesn't mean that it isn't an entirely separate socioeconomic entity. A brief glance at the last two decades of politics in Taiwan will show you as much.
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