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When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

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Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#91
post #67
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes. But this could be changed by Trump in one day. OH really? How will he do that?

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a…

There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given the risks involved there probably isn't much will to rock the boat either.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China ended up with last generate tech we are way past that point. China has leap frogged pretty much everyone else in every aspect. It took China less than a year to build the worlds fastest supercomputer (unclassified) after US placed restrictions on related technology exports to China. China was building components for supercomputers over the past decade, they would show case a network, a small processor, coolin…

You're looking at the PR, look at the actual technology. Anyone can build a big enough supercomputer if you throw enough money at the problem. This high level of spending is getting hard to justify, however, because most of the problems you want to solve can't be solved just by throwing another order of magnitude of computing power at the problem. Building a supercomputer becomes a bit of a boondoggle, a public-relat…

TSMC have two 16nm fabs and are building a 10nm fab.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#93
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. I think this was a combination of fear that isolating China vs creating a high degree of economic interdependence could lead to war down the line, and a lack of control over Western companie…

Don't forget the USA's ace in the hole for brewing civil unrest in other countries: Hollywood. (I'm being mordant here; not advocating for international psy-ops.) American media project a depiction of life that is very attractive by design, and this raises expectations among consumers of this media. If Chinese people were not aware of the lifestyles of westerners, the Chinese government would be under less pressure t…

I just saw the new Star Wars -- cofinanced by (e:) Alibaba films. In it, one of the moral cruxes of the main story was that the crew needed 'Unity'. I saw this as a subtle shift from american 'Freedom'. There's a point where some 'good guys' are being held prisoner. In any red-blooded American Hollywood Film, this would lead to 'GIVE US OUR FREEDOM' type resistance. In this movie, it led to 'WE NEED UNITY' resistance.

Maybe I am reading too much in to it, but it felt like a shift influenced by the additional target market of the East, and I don't see Hollywood as a source of affecting moral/civic unrest.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#94
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. I think this was a combination of fear that isolating China vs creating a high degree of economic interdependence could lead to war down the line, and a lack of control over Western companie…

Your comment sounds like it's coming from ten years ago or something. China may (or may not, for all I know) have beaten the West in the game of getting the technology it wants but the country has enough structural problems that it's chances of getting ahead of the West broadly are looking very dim. Problems: Horrific pollution, huge loans to inefficient state-run industries, massive real state and infrastructure mal…

Yup! Additionally the Chinese government is not a smart investor, and that's led to overcapacity. Eventually these bad investments will punish China, but it make take some time.

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21696552-chinas-indus... http://www.economist.com/news/business/21693573-chinas-exces...

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#95
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. Don't worry, the game is not over yet. >For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. Yes. But this could be changed by Trump in one day. (Sorry, I know that this is an extremely liberal board). Chinese don't believe in win-win. They…

> Why? Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up?

> So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up?

Thomas Schelling's book The Strategy of Conflict has a focus on the ways that people can benefit in a conflict from being, or being perceived as, irrational or constrained in their choices or access to information. Clearly you can't be better off in all areas of life by making irrational or random decisions, but there are some specific situations of conflict where you might be, if others are aware of it.

One familiar example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game)

where if people think you are very irrational, you're likely to win!

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#96
post #28
post #7

The West and China are playing a global chess game and have been for some time. An impoverished China was not in the West's interests and so they agreed to buy all kinds of lowish tech Chinese made goods. In return most jurisdictions enforced a balance of trade with China, with the exception of the US. On their end China insisted on joint ventures and technology transfer to the extent Western companies would comply.…

It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. I think this was a combination of fear that isolating China vs creating a high degree of economic interdependence could lead to war down the line, and a lack of control over Western companie…

Why is it a problem if China develops a higher GDP than the US. Its not a problem for the people. It might be a problem to politicians that want to tell a story, but wishing china to do worse economically is truly backwards. If china comes out with better technology than the us, better products and services, cheaper and all that, the whole world gets better. If you dont believe that, then you must for the sake of consistency think that products that come out of the us into other countries are vultures in nature and draining in economic terms.

A more mature approach would be to think what to learn and do(or not do) when someone is showing great signs of progress. Getting more products from China makes the whole richer. China's protectionis policies are probably harming them more than helping them, why play in the same game.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#97
post #7

The West and China are playing a global chess game and have been for some time. An impoverished China was not in the West's interests and so they agreed to buy all kinds of lowish tech Chinese made goods. In return most jurisdictions enforced a balance of trade with China, with the exception of the US. On their end China insisted on joint ventures and technology transfer to the extent Western companies would comply.…

Uber and Google are very different cases. They, as tech companies, are also different cases from consumer companies. Detailed analysis are required to gain insights on why they succeed or failed.

In short, Google posed a thread to the government and the political system. If it was allowed to run freely, it will break the restrictions and the controls the government has been trying to impose on the internet. So the government can't afford to have Google freely spread information, etc.

Uber doesn't impose such a threat. In my opinion, Didi simply outperforms Uber. I use Uber and Lyft in USA. Last summer I was in China and tried Didi and Uber on purpose. I think Didi's app was easier to use, had better design, more integrated to other services, and had more drivers. I talked to the drivers. My general impression was that the drivers were more content at working with Didi. This was especially true when issues occurred. Didi were more eager to work with drivers to get issues resolved, while some drivers complained that Uber was kind of condescending, treated drivers less well.

As for traditional consumer companies like Walmart, etc. cutting costs was their primary goal, IMHO. When one complains about cheap products from China, has she/he thought about supply and demand? If the demand for such cheap products is low, will the companies continue making them? For example, there are high-quality hand-made silk, linen, cotton clothes in China, I don't think the big companies are interested in them. The market for high-end stuffs is always small. Most people would prefer to buy high-end stuffs on well-established brands, like those in France, Italy, etc. It takes time to build such a brand. So it is not as profitable to cheap products. Due to the drastic disruption before 1980 in China, Chinese start to build high-end products only in last several years. It will take at least another 20 years, IMHO, for such products to mature in both quality and design, and be recognized.

We have some cotton fabric hand-made by my wife's grandmother, in traditional ways. After 40 years, they are still both soft and sturdy (of course, we don't use them that often, since they are so precious for us.) It feels just so good, much better than those very good quality beddings one can find in department stores here. You won't find such products in department stores, though. That is my point.

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#98
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. I think this was a combination of fear that isolating China vs creating a high degree of economic interdependence could lead to war down the line, and a lack of control over Western companie…

Protectionist trade policies are common in Japan too. Ford quit the Japanese market after less than 5000 units sold in 2015. http://www.iol.co.za/motoring/industry-news/why-arent-foreig... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/japan-the-forgott...

"Protectionist trade policies are common in Japan too...."

There are advantages to the way Asian economists do it. For example, not only in Japan, but especially in Korea, cell phones were standard even by the mid-90's....EVERYONE had one. And the rates were quite reasonable, too. (No contracts, either. IfIRememberRight.) But there are(/were) disadvantages to Asian Tiger economics too. After the Asian bubble burst, the Korean Wan [SouthKorean money] depreciated to the point that USArmy Sergeants were trying to buy cars (even Fords, not just Kias and Daewoos) made (or rather bought) in Korea. (The US Dollar-to-Wan rate was so out of wack that it was still more economical to buy AND ship a car back to the US across the Pacific on a boat. Unfortunately emissions standards were different; Korean cars didn't pass EPA muster.) ~circa 1998

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I HATE American protectionism in farming. One such example is the ridiculous subsidies of corn that lead to obesity, feeding ruminants grain and even crappy cocacola! Other terrbile side-effects of our agrisubsidies include crap processed food, agricultural practices built on assumption of nearly free water leading to droughts, nutritional deficiency in produce etc etc.

Other terrible side effects of our subsidies are a reliable food supply as we overproduce far beyond what's necessary which makes us nearly immune to supply shocks like pre-1930s america. Ever heard of famine in the united states in recent memory? Didn't think so. Know what else causes nutritional deficiency? Not eating. While there may be some problems with our current system, they are firmly in the "good problem to…

> protectionism is justified for critical functions

Then don't complain about other countries' protectionism. They also have the right to decide what is critical to them, right?

Re: When It Comes to China, Google’s Experience Still Says It All

#100

> As late as this past June, Uber was predicting it would pass its rival within a year. This is simply not true (edit: not going to happen). I'm a fan of Uber, but using Uber is kinda like a exotic thing to do (while Didi is more common). Uber can be only used in major cities, on the other hand Didi can be used almost anywhere. Didi simply expand faster in China. (Uber is available in less than 20 Chinese cities whil…

I think the Didi-Uber merge is more of a individual case. Not a reflection of "China vs US".

Many people don't know, the head of Uber china and the president of Didi are cousin. So to be honest I'm not surprised at all.

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