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The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

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Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quarter of a million?! Maybe in 2009. Now, 1/2 a million.

I'm figuring for the down payment.

In Vancouver, $500k is more plausible. The minimum downpayment for >$1M properties is 20%, and the average selling price for a detached house in Metro Vancouver last month was $1.8M; in the City of Vancouver proper, it was well over $2M.

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#62

It's happening to countries all around the pacific rim (well, without being too rude, all the stable countries). Chinese money is land-banking in Vancouver, US north west, Australia, and Auckland in nz. and countries don't dear stop it because it will tank the real-estate bubble too quickly (it'll go before the tech bubble anyway). But if it does it will actually be good for the economies because capital tied up in u…

Yes, insane property prices in Oz & NZ:

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=46075

Canada and Australia have been hit hard by the commodity collapse, and their currencies have crashed, so their property has inflated in local nominal prices, as foreigners have bought anything with a roof (or even without). But their internal economies have not reacted to the loss of export business and imported inflation for consumer goods. They keep high-taxes and high-welfare socialist economies which are sleep-walking off a cliff - this will not end well.

NZ is in a slightly better position, because it produces more agricultural commodities than industrial minerals, and it restructured its taxes and regulations to become more friendly to businesses and individuals (no capital gains tax, no inheritance tax). But its real estate market is also in a crazy bubble, which will collapse if the foreign buyers disappear.

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#63
This is happening in Australia too.

There are new apartment buildings going up by Chinese property developers aimed squarely at the growing Chinese population.

As a matter of fact, construction management university students are told to study Chinese language and culture to help them get jobs after uni

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#64
post #4
post #2

A disaster for people who believe Canadian citizens and permanent residents should be able to afford to buy a home in their own city. Great for those who own real estate and sell it.

It seems like the Canadian government is responding: > Foreign investors will have to pay an additional 15 percent in property-transfer tax as of Aug. 2 and city of Vancouver was given the authority to impose a new tax on empty homes. The additional tax on foreign investors is a good idea, but I wonder how it will be enforced, especially when ownership is often hidden behind trusts.

That tax is just a smokescreen. There are numerous loopholes and problems with it, so many that it's surely deliberately engineered for maximum buzz but minimum effect. BC and Vancouver have been playing hot potato with this issue for a while with no one doing anything to address the problem.

For example, it very narrowly targets foreign citizens who are not permanent residents or citizens of Canada, completely missing "investors" who have just bought Canadian permanent residence for cheap, do not earn income in Canada, and are now buying property in their safe haven. This scenario is unfortunately all too common.

About $100K in interest payments via Quebec's investor immigration program, no other requirements.

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#65

The whole Pacific coast of North America is becoming a gated region, closed off from those without at least quarter of a million dollars saved up. Unfortunately I think the mild weather and beauty of that area mean prices will never go down. Middle class people are seemingly bound to live in places that are too hot, too cold, or too flat.

It is interesting to look at the map of California and wonder at that huge gap between Carmel and Santa Barbara. No development, no population, its even hard for tourists to find a place to stay, or even a campsite.

The tech industry pays all the state's bills, mostly captured by tenured public sector workers, in true socialist fashion. If there's a tech crash, and a few years pass without IPOs, the state will collapse into bankruptcy, and the impoverished residents will start to eye that empty coastline as their most valuable asset. When the tree-hugging hippies die off, 350km of the world's most valuable real estate will come onto the market.

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#66
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those sorts of cities don't generally have large apartment blocks so you don't get the benefits of density.

So more space for less money? Lack of large apartment blocks or density isn't what I'd call a downside.

I like having everything I need inside a 10 minute walk. If it weren't for work I'd very rarely go outside of this 1Km radius. To do that you need large apartment blocks.

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#67
post #37
post #30

What isn't talked about in this article is the effect this is having on the other industries in the city aside from real estate. I believe that Vancouver has potential to be THE tech hub in Canada. Unfortunately, wages are very low compared to the cost of housing, and so the cost of living is super high. Combine that with extremely low vacancy rates, and it is very hard to attract talent from out of town. In fact, ma…

Introduction of a gradual increase in property taxes, as well as a gradual decease in income taxes, even lower than zero if appropriate, would be the naïve, straightforward economic policy recommendation if the problem has been accurately described. Some details yo resolve would be the numerous people who were using their primary residence as their main investment for retirement, and deciding how to handle people who…

Why gradual? (not disagreeing, just asking)

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#68
post #11

I can't speak for Canada, but in the USA; all a foreigner needs to buy a home is cash, and a phone call. I'll get hammered for saying this, but I feel it's wrong on so many levels.

I agree with you that there should be restrictions on foreign investors looking to housing as investment. . . at the same time, I am worried that they are being used as scapegoats to avoid addressing much larger structural economic and legislative problems behind the inflationary price increase. In fact I think these foreign investors are more being attracted by the already inflating prices than actually the culprit…

>Being used as scapegoats

That's what it looks like for me with the Australian housing market where the Chinese are being blamed for increasing prices. China is the biggest foreign investor in the Australian housing market followed by the US with $12 billion out of $34 billion foreign investment in 2013-14 [1], but it can't be the only explanation.

As a non-permanent resident you can only buy from the plan, no 'used' houses at all: 'If the FIRB feels that the residential real estate in question is only being purchased by a foreign citizen or company just for the purpose of renting it out, or because the purchaser wants to speculate on the property’s future value, permission to purchase will be refused.' [2]

The reasons for the extreme prices are more complex and subsequent Australian governments refuse to change this: banks have been giving out record-low mortgages leading to massive debt and rising houseprices [3], and there's negative gearing, which allows people to overinvest because they can claim later and causes people to hold onto their property, thereby inflating prices [4]. Changing this broken system is detrimental to the parties parties as it would directly cut into income for the rich and the old, and so many blue-collar jobs in Australia depend on building houses. It will only change after the whole bubble implodes.

[1] http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Pacific/Australia/Price-H...

[2] http://www.australia-migration.com/page/Foreign_Investors_Bu...

[3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-29/verrender-housing-bubb...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing#Australia

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#69
post #49

I think that the real problem is that so many people are trying to concentrate into the densest areas. That creates huge pressures, which are reflected in the price of space. Take a look at the cities with populations below 100K. You will find lots of people who live great lives, despite not being rich. For those of us who grew up in these little island towns, living in a place like Vancouver is downright depressing,…

and for those of us used to living in cities, living in the middle of nowhere sounds horrendous.

Everyone has their tradeoffs and priorities. Decades ago, it was common for new finance grads to get a tiny, poorly lit, crappy apartment in Manhattan because they couldn't imagine living in Queens much less New Jersey--or even somewhere other than the New York area entirely.

Today that's probably still true but add the walkable core areas of a variety of other US mostly coastal cities. The Bay area is something of an exception but housing prices go down a lot as you get an hour away from most of those cities (which isn't exactly the middle of nowhere).

Re: The Canadian Housing Boom Fueled by China’s Billionaires

#70

It's happening to countries all around the pacific rim (well, without being too rude, all the stable countries). Chinese money is land-banking in Vancouver, US north west, Australia, and Auckland in nz. and countries don't dear stop it because it will tank the real-estate bubble too quickly (it'll go before the tech bubble anyway). But if it does it will actually be good for the economies because capital tied up in u…

The same is true in London, mainly with investors from Russia, China and the Middle East. Compared to their countries, they see these as a 'safe haven' for their money.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/dec/26/londoners-mi...

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