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Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

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Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#161
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's extremely unlikely that they'll IPO for anywhere near $100 billion, or even near their current valuation (for reference, the largest IPO in history is Alibaba with $25B). Their accounting practices most likely don't utilize GAAP, which is how they get around saying "we're profitable in the US", so I wouldn't be surprised if they were actually significantly losing money. Plus with the multitude of lawsuits agains…

Sorry, yes I meant market cap/valuation. Last year, Uber was handing out RSUs at a $62.5bn valuation. At IPO, it'll atleast be double that, no?

Although I was more focused on the IPO terminology, I still think my argument holds true that I don't believe that Uber would have a favorable IPO and that it's unlikely their current/future valuation would translate to market cap, because they're very likely not honestly profitable in their larger markets (e.g. US) because there's no proof they're going by their GAAP numbers when saying they're profitable in the US.

I would love to see documents like SEC filings from Uber, but they won't release those except to investors until they IPO, so it's a catch-22...

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#162
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is renowned for using political connections and board seats to influence regulation. How different is it?

The most sneaky US lobbyst is a naive child comparing to any Chinese small village chief.

Is that how they keep winning anywhere they don't have total control?

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#163

I realize this is a complex deal with many nuances but do elements of all of this not sound a little bit like a ponzi scheme? At least outwardly? Didi which itself has lost billions dollars so far has agreed to invest a billion dollars into another company who has lost billions of dollars. I guess investors are that confident that Uber can not and will not fail?

In order for it to be a ponzi scheme the money being invested in Uber would need to be used to directly pay off previous investors. That is not happening. Investing in Uber may or may not turn out to be a good investment, but it's not a Ponzi scheme.

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#164
post #25
post #24

Well played by Didi. This was a years-long chess game with enormous stakes and Didi came out winning. Make no mistake, Uber's goal was absolutely to dominate in China, if they could. That was a big part of their pitch to investors over the past two years. This deal is an admission of defeat and a retreat from competition, salvaging what value they could in the process. I would imagine this speaks to mounting pressure…

this is bad news for Lyft who Didi basically just abandoned after partnering with them and were hoping that Uber would self implode by overspending in China, Uber has got the US market on lock https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/11/lyft-and-didi-kuaidi-launc...

Maybe it's bad for Lyft, or maybe it's good. Has it been confirmed that the partnership is void or defunct?

If the partnership remains in place, then this is likely a good thing for Lyft. Recall that, unlike Uber, Lyft wasn't trying to storm China and establish itself as a direct player there. Rather, they established a collaboration with Did whereby each company's customers could benefit from the other company's services in their respective countries. As such, assuming the partnership remains alive, this would mean Lyft has an even stronger partner now in China.

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a 'BO'?

Body odor.

Ugh, this was the part I hated most about commuting on the MBTA in Boston. It's not too bad in the winter (cold) or summer (AC is on all the time), but the shoulder seasons, when humidity is high but temperatures are moderate so the AC isn't on, were brutal.

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#166

I can't tell if this is a good deal for Uber investors or not. As I understand it, Uber will own a 20% share in the combined company. The combined company is valued at $35 billion, so Uber's share of the value will be $7 billion (actually less, since they also need to share it with Baidu which invested directly into Uber China too). $7 billion doesn't sound too bad as an exit. However, if Uber's China business is wor…

Uber's China business was losing money before (I believe to the tune of about $1bn/year), and it looked like they weren't going to get a permanent hold in that market. Local competition was very strong. Consequently, I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation. Leaving it at slightly more than 10% of their valuation seems reasonably realistic to me. Keep in mind: * The major Chinese citie…

As a Chinese national, I disagree. Taxi experience in big cities in China is generally better because of heavier regulation and competition. In many medium to small cities, it is far worse. Now note Uber only compete in big cities while Didi has already been operating in many smaller cities with large market share. Yet Uber still fails to expand to where ride hailing by app should be popular and desirable.

Scooters? Everyone hates them.

Personal experience: my hometown is a medium city (with a population of ~3 million in urban area), the taxi system there is so broken. Because of the medallion system, to maximize the profit/cost ratio, taxi drivers usually operate their cars 24 hours a day with two shifts. Day shifts are usually taken by locals, and they will try their best not to serve you if the trip goes through traffic-jammed area or remote places. I understand their economic reasoning though. The worst part is every afternoon from 4pm to 6pm, when shift change happens, every taxi driver will refuse your ride request unless you happen to be ride sharing with them to their shift change stops(pretty ironic I think). So as a rider you basically beg for a ride.

That's how Uber/Didi win. You don't beg, you don't worry, you don't get pissed off. You uses an app then you get on a car with better fare (thanks to those steep discounts)

Remember, this is just one city with population of 3MM, there are more than 100 of such cities (with population of 1~3 million) in China. But Uber is not operating in my hometown, let alone many others.

Uber is slow to adopt Alipay or Wechat pay. Uber is slow in expansion.

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#167
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most sneaky US lobbyst is a naive child comparing to any Chinese small village chief.

Is that how they keep winning anywhere they don't have total control?

> Asian Americans as a whole are doing better than any other single racial group, earning more on average than whites, and more likely to graduate from college

http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/in-plain-sight/asian-american...

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#168
travis chucknack made a huge misjudgement and lost hundreds of millions of dollars with nothing to show.

only, in this bubblicious market can something like this go unpunished. same as mayer from yahoo.

failure in china for uber's execs should have been forseeable. for all it's 'market policy' , any big western technology company cannot succeed in china without the blessing and connections in the chinese government.

uber's travis either mistakenly thought he had this blessing , or he got suckered into it. OR, quite possibly he was ignorant and conceited enough to jump into the shark pool not knowing he needed the consent of the sharks not to get eaten right away.

either way, this was a huge lapse of judgment and is a CANARY IN THE COAL MINE for other major business judgement failures that will likely soon be unmasked once the tide of market madness turns to market panic.

if i had a million dollars, i'd be betting uber will be one of the biggest financial disasters like enron, but for the startup world.. if only there was place to buy put options of pre-ipo uber stock...........

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#169
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber's China business was losing money before (I believe to the tune of about $1bn/year), and it looked like they weren't going to get a permanent hold in that market. Local competition was very strong. Consequently, I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation. Leaving it at slightly more than 10% of their valuation seems reasonably realistic to me. Keep in mind: * The major Chinese citie…

As a Chinese national, I disagree. Taxi experience in big cities in China is generally better because of heavier regulation and competition. In many medium to small cities, it is far worse. Now note Uber only compete in big cities while Didi has already been operating in many smaller cities with large market share. Yet Uber still fails to expand to where ride hailing by app should be popular and desirable. Scooters?…

> Taxi experience in big cities in China is generally better because of heavier regulation and competition.

The taxi experience is the US is bad because of heavy regulation without competition. Competition is the only thing that helps.

Re: Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions

#170

I can't tell if this is a good deal for Uber investors or not. As I understand it, Uber will own a 20% share in the combined company. The combined company is valued at $35 billion, so Uber's share of the value will be $7 billion (actually less, since they also need to share it with Baidu which invested directly into Uber China too). $7 billion doesn't sound too bad as an exit. However, if Uber's China business is wor…

Uber's China business was losing money before (I believe to the tune of about $1bn/year), and it looked like they weren't going to get a permanent hold in that market. Local competition was very strong. Consequently, I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation. Leaving it at slightly more than 10% of their valuation seems reasonably realistic to me. Keep in mind: * The major Chinese citie…

> I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation.

I would conjecture the opposite as Uber investors were pitched on the China growth story

> Four out of the top 10 are now in China, according to an email sent by Uber CEO Travis Kalanick to investors and obtained by the Financial Times.

> In the request for money from investors, Kalanick explained just how fast the company is growing:

> Passengers in China are taking 1 million trips per day. Uber is in 11 cities in China, but plans to launch in 50 more cities that have a population of more than five million this year. These are all cities comparable to the size of Miami, Kalanick said in the email.

> Four out of Uber's 10 largest cities are in China.

> After nine months in Chengdu, the city is seeing 479 times the number of trips that New York did at the same mark. Hangzhou is 422 times larger than New York at the same nine-month mark and it is adding 200,000 residents a week.

> The company is planning on investing more than $1 billion into UberChina, which goes by YouBu or "an excellent step forward", locally.

> It is now the largest market outside of the U.S., and "at the current growth trajectory, will most likely surpass the US before year-end," Kalanick said int he email.

http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-china-growth-2015-6

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