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Why Economic Growth Will Fall

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101–110 of 176 posts

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#101
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that crop yields have grown exponentially as well? And I hope you also realize that "natural resources" is not an intrinsic property that some things have, it's just a way of describing things around us and for which we figured out use cases. It's like when someone says that a certain phenomenon is mysterious. That's not a description of the phenomenon itself, it just describes the state of knowledge o…

> You do realize that crop yields have grown exponentially as well? I do realize that, yes, only that nowadays people are not content with only eating bread and making it to the next day (which, I agree, we have enough resources for) but they instead want to have a "Western"-style of life, meaning middle or higher education, a car, some electronics (phones, TVs), air-conditioning etc. I'd say our planet doesn't have…

70% of the globe is covered by Ocean which is minimally used. If we covered 10% of that with solar we get .7 * .1 * 196.9 * 10^6 mi * 2.59e+6 (miles to meters) * 100 watts/meter average * 20% efficiency ~= 713959400000000 watts / second. Or 100kw 24/7 per person for a population of 7 billion. That's plenty of energy cover loss of fossil fuel, and to upgrade everyone's lifestyle for the next billion years.

Granted, nothing keeps up with exponential growth. But, world population does not seem to be on that trajectory long term.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#102
post #22

Considering we live in an infinite universe I do not see why economic growth can not continue even accelerate. Especially seeing that sometime this century we will get cheap space travel (getting there) and AI (getting there) and transition from fossil fuels to renewables and fusion (getting there) Tho' yes seeing how some of our best and brightest are working on how to serve more ads and how to get people spend thei…

Wealth will increase. Economic growth not, because the wealth will be poorly divided. Only few will reap the benefits of AI.

Unless the wealthy somehow manage to consume all the excess production the average can't buy because they're too poor, wealth will have a hard time increasing without general economic growth. There is a pretty hard limit on how much even the most ostentatious trillionaire can consume.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#104

Considering we live in an infinite universe I do not see why economic growth can not continue even accelerate. Especially seeing that sometime this century we will get cheap space travel (getting there) and AI (getting there) and transition from fossil fuels to renewables and fusion (getting there) Tho' yes seeing how some of our best and brightest are working on how to serve more ads and how to get people spend thei…

Because we haven't gotten a way to get fuel outside earth yet (that I know of), or a solution to long travel times. As such we are practically still bound to earth, which is finite.

If we're willing to deal with the (technologically but not politically manageable) consequences, nuclear rockets are a proven technology and can reach most of the solar system within a year's traveling time.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#105

Our economy depends on growth, and I think this will cause lots of problems. I saw a quote by a US congressman blaming young people today for our financial problems because many of them are unwilling to put themselves into debt for homes, cars, etc. An outrageous statement, blaming people for doing what they believe to be in their own self interest. If the value of production mostly stayed with the people and local b…

Why and how does our economy depend on growth? I've head this claimed a lot but never understood it.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#106

Thomas Piketty is so important about this because he shows how exceptional America was in that it had plentiful capital in terms of land, so that labor was unusually valuable vs capital when compared to Europe. It shapes American's thinking in a positive way, but we need to acknowledge things have changed. Formerly, almost anyone who was willing to work hard and take a risk could build a homestead. Now the conditions…

> Now the conditions for opportunity are available but more restricted. Restricted, yet it beats rest of the world hands down in terms of opportunities. When the rest of the world looks at America, they just see a nation which got lucky with land and capital. But the fact is, America had people before it was discovered by the Europeans, and there was no great civilization here unlike almost everywhere else in the wor…

That belief is widespread in America, but is unsupported by data. If you look at how hard it is for an American to rise out of the conditions they were born in, they're worse off than if they'd been born in (for example) France, Germany, Canada, or Denmark:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Intergenerational_mobilit...

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility (see the "Worldwide" section).

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#108
post #105

Our economy depends on growth, and I think this will cause lots of problems. I saw a quote by a US congressman blaming young people today for our financial problems because many of them are unwilling to put themselves into debt for homes, cars, etc. An outrageous statement, blaming people for doing what they believe to be in their own self interest. If the value of production mostly stayed with the people and local b…

Why and how does our economy depend on growth? I've head this claimed a lot but never understood it.

You buy a stock, create a company, build a house, because you expect it to increase in value and be a worthwhile investment. If growth stops it will be increasingly hard to do this, because all stocks that are still increasing in value will be bought up, until they cannot anymore. So you keep your money. Deflation. System collapse.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#109
post #37

Bill Gates' review of this book takes a techo-optimist view of it. https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/The-Rise-and-Fall-of-Americ... "Most reviews have focused on the “fall” indicated in the title: the last hundred pages or so, in which Gordon predicts that the future won’t live up to the past in terms of economic growth. I strongly disagree with him on that point, as I discuss below. But I did find his historical anal…

Excellent read. Thanks. Something I've always tried to understand is the value of these digital things. How much would it cost, in 1970, to have a library of all the worlds music? Today it's 10 bucks a month. How much value do we put on information? What is the value of the bits of information that make up the Wikipedia page "Smallpox vaccine"? How about in 1960? Can you even put a dollar value on it?

The answer is these things have an immense amount of value. To even say the value of technology an average person accesses today is double that of 1970 is wrong, it is a lot more than that. Much or even most of that value is underutilized.

I think a combination of the following lead to a completely perverted understanding of money:

- politicalization of economics - the reflexive nature of markets - the tendency of both academics and professionals to seek the assignment of natural laws to market behavior - time lags in the market making it take years or even decades to discover something was worth a lot less than the amount invested

Fundamentally money is just meant to be a way to account for limited resources between trading parties. If the trading parties are doing something destructive, money doesn't know that. I've also used the analogy before that the trying to measure things in prices as money supply changes is also like trying to use a yard stick which changes in size frequently. Simple if you have some metrics from the central bank, but actually not so simple because of all the complex moving missing pieces (including what other currencies are doing.)

The real global fear factor right now is that a great deal of institutions and individuals have a strong interest in inflation rather than deflation. These are groups whose future is based on prices for things largely going one direction, up. If you earn a living by spending borrowed money -- or being paid by earned interest -- you need this.

A lot of people thrive in situations where someone can hand them a blueprint of what to do along with a bunch of money. They follow it, copy, and get the output. That is largely what current growth numbers measure.

The reality is, of course, everything can't grow forever. That isn't a bad thing.

What I think is the greatest concern right now, the greatest danger, is not 1% global growth or even -1%. Instead, it is how nation states decide to react to slow growth. Quite a few are trying to finance their way out. Others may attempt to do disruptive things such as wars. I think we are more than a decade in to these reactions, by the way.

If fossil fuels are as dangerous as we think, a global slow down or contraction may end up saving us. Right now the countries which are growing are still copy and pasting their way to a pretty non-sustainable future.

There is another situation where real growth is negative but available money supply is increasing and prices are going up. That is very painful to be in, but a real future possible outcome.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#110

I agree that it's impossible for the rates of economic growth and lifestyle improvements we saw since the late 1800s to continue indefinitely, but the key to growth is investment. And from the late-1800s till the mid-1900s, there were huge government investments made in building new and innovative infrastructure in the US--railroads, the phone network, state universities and K-12 public education, electricity generat…

According to wikipedia, more people than ever before are getting educated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Educational_Attainment_in... Spending on infrastructure is going up. https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/free/254109 The issue is not lack of investment, it's out of control costs.

Maybe it's a red herring, but I always wonder how much infrastructure spending that would have gone into surface building (roads and bridges) has instead gone into subsurface building (deep underground military bases and the tunnels connecting them). Spending for the latter is buried in the black budget so actual numbers aren't available but it has to be huge and it's been going on for decades.
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