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Why Economic Growth Will Fall

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Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#41

Post by fsloth »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #2

This. Finally. People on HN think that startups, technology and economic growth have unlimited potential. This is pure stupidity at its finest. Observations of the natural world show a general trend: that everything, from physical resources to energy has limits. It is a mistake to believe that this general observation does not apply to technology and the human imagination. While we can comprehend what a limit in oil…

"nothing has really changed in the past two decades"

If we discuss consumer products, then I would be willing to agree up to a point. Except, for example, we are finally getting electric cars that drive by themselves. This not just an improvement in computing. Geneticists just got crispr which means there will be an explosion in gene altered organisms.

I'm not sure what kind of big changes you are crawing - these do not reflect the state of the art in sciences but rather what products are manufactured and marketed for consumers. Two decades are actually a really short time for any sort of significant development in any field - although improvements tend to come in bursts.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#42

Post by collyw »

cheriot wrote: post #25
collyw wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time". We got told this in the 70's (the automation part at least), yet seem to be working more and more hours now.

Well, we can produce what was considered enough back then without working so much. People just keep want more, more, more.

Most people under 40 can't afford a house in many western countries. Compared to 20 years ago, most people could (at least in the two countries I am familiar with - the UK or Spain).

The very rich seem to be doing OK though.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#43

Post by conjectures »

objectivistbrit wrote: post #40
skywhopper wrote: post #24

I agree that it's impossible for the rates of economic growth and lifestyle improvements we saw since the late 1800s to continue indefinitely, but the key to growth is investment. And from the late-1800s till the mid-1900s, there were huge government investments made in building new and innovative infrastructure in the US--railroads, the phone network, state universities and K-12 public education, electricity generat…

> And from the late-1800s till the mid-1900s, there were huge government investments made in building new and innovative infrastructure in the US--railroads, the phone network, state universities and K-12 public education, electricity generation and distribution, highways, airports. Excluding the world wars, US government spending was much lower during that period than it is today. It increased greatly with the New D…

These are two different measures. It's entirely possible for governments to spend more money without building more infrastructure. Either by spending it on different things, or badly.

So in this sense you can both be correct.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#44

Post by tim333 »

>At the point where computers have achieved superintelligence, we have reached the Singularity

>...Gordon has no sympathy for these futuristic views.

Kind of dumb really. Like discussing growth at the start of the industrial revolution and having no sympathy for the idea of an industrial revolution.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#45

Post by yummyfajitas »

skywhopper wrote: post #24

I agree that it's impossible for the rates of economic growth and lifestyle improvements we saw since the late 1800s to continue indefinitely, but the key to growth is investment. And from the late-1800s till the mid-1900s, there were huge government investments made in building new and innovative infrastructure in the US--railroads, the phone network, state universities and K-12 public education, electricity generat…

According to wikipedia, more people than ever before are getting educated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Educational_Attainment_in...

Spending on infrastructure is going up.

https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/free/254109

The issue is not lack of investment, it's out of control costs.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#46

Post by taneq »

bluetomcat wrote: post #39
skywhopper wrote: post #24

I agree that it's impossible for the rates of economic growth and lifestyle improvements we saw since the late 1800s to continue indefinitely, but the key to growth is investment. And from the late-1800s till the mid-1900s, there were huge government investments made in building new and innovative infrastructure in the US--railroads, the phone network, state universities and K-12 public education, electricity generat…

This, and the wasteful misallocation of resources to bloated and unproductive industries like finance, insurance, advertising and entertainment.

coughmilitarycough

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#47

Post by piaste »

feral wrote: post #30
piaste wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is some of the shallowest, most misleading insight I've ever read. "Human achievement will probably reach a limit at some point" is effectively an empty statement. Even if you could take its truth for granted, it is completely useless information. There is zero actionable difference between a limit that doesn't exist, and a limit that is unknowable and unguessable. Your behaviour should stay exactly the same eit…

I think the strongly worded logic in your post is questionable. > There is zero actionable difference between a limit that doesn't exist, and a limit that is unknowable and unguessable. Thought experiment: Situation 1: I rely on a single food source, which I know is unlimited. Situation 2: I rely on a single food source, which I'm not sure is unlimited, but I can't guess when it'll run out. > Your behaviour should st…

Yes, I was referring to the subject at hand - human achievement / technology / innovation - not making a universal statement about everything that may have limits.

But I can see how my post could read that way. I'll make that clearer.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#48

Post by havetocharge »

I think it would be helpful to quantify the measure of world warfare. I think it would correspond to economic growth.

Nuclear weapons and public opinion on war act as a huge deterrent to large scale mobilizations, so we've reached peak war, and with it, peak economy.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#50

Post by d4nt »

collyw wrote: post #20
wildmusings wrote: post #12

There are many breakthroughs waiting to be made in medicine, energy production, geoengineering, space exploration, transportation, etc. Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time, which will allow the market for entertainment, travel, and luxury to grow much larger than today, and be accessible to many more people. But if we succumb to this pessimism, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time". We got told this in the 70's (the automation part at least), yet seem to be working more and more hours now.

It seems to me that the amount of time people work stays broadly constant, but automation changes what is considered "work".

To a farm labourer from 500 years ago, sitting on factory production line attaching two parts together doesn't feel much like work.

To a production line worker from 100 years ago, sitting at a computer typing emails to people and going to meetings doesn't feel much like work.

To us today, sitting around while the 3D printers in your factory print whatever your AI engine says they should, doesn't feel much like work. But I have a feeling that future generations will get tired of constantly analysing their performance and adjusting parameters.

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