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Why Economic Growth Will Fall

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Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#11

Post by placebo »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #2

This. Finally. People on HN think that startups, technology and economic growth have unlimited potential. This is pure stupidity at its finest. Observations of the natural world show a general trend: that everything, from physical resources to energy has limits. It is a mistake to believe that this general observation does not apply to technology and the human imagination. While we can comprehend what a limit in oil…

While it's definitely true that many a time certain crowds tend to have lost touch with reality regarding the potential of a specific activity (as illustrated in repeated economic bubbles), to say that economic growth is limited suggests that economy is in principle a zero sum game. I don't believe that to be the case. Any attempt to predict the absolute limits of economic potential is an attempt to limit the potential of creativity (and I'd say of reality itself). We are nowhere near understanding that potential and I assume we never will. Whether we will be able to continue to tap into that potential instead of self destructing is another question.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#12

Post by wildmusings »

There are many breakthroughs waiting to be made in medicine, energy production, geoengineering, space exploration, transportation, etc. Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time, which will allow the market for entertainment, travel, and luxury to grow much larger than today, and be accessible to many more people.

But if we succumb to this pessimism, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#13

Post by eru »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #2

This. Finally. People on HN think that startups, technology and economic growth have unlimited potential. This is pure stupidity at its finest. Observations of the natural world show a general trend: that everything, from physical resources to energy has limits. It is a mistake to believe that this general observation does not apply to technology and the human imagination. While we can comprehend what a limit in oil…

Oh, there are some very simple adjustments we could make right now (without even any new technology) to get a great amount of real growth. Just open some pretty standard economics textbooks:

On the demand side: target nominal GDP to all but eliminate recessions. (Or at least target the long term growth of the price level instead of letting bygones be bygones.)

On the supply side: completely shift the tax burden from labour and capital onto land. Remove barriers to free trade. Review and simplify economic regulations---start with silly zoning laws perhaps. Lower barriers to entry in most industries. Invest in public infrastructure and education. Cut stupid spending, and the most distorting taxes.

(Land taxes can probably even yield enough to pay for a lavish social welfare system. They will definitely recoup all sane investment in public infrastructure. Without distorting the economy even one bit.)

Of course the problem is that all these reforms are politically infeasible.

There might be a technological limit to real growth, of course, but we are far from it.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#14

Post by PetoU »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #2

This. Finally. People on HN think that startups, technology and economic growth have unlimited potential. This is pure stupidity at its finest. Observations of the natural world show a general trend: that everything, from physical resources to energy has limits. It is a mistake to believe that this general observation does not apply to technology and the human imagination. While we can comprehend what a limit in oil…

to add, I would say, the limits of human imagination are cognitive limits posed by the physical limits of our brains. Let's say cognitive biases, you can't completely unbias yourself. You could argue, that with coming technology, we can modify the biological basis (those limits), but just go more meta. We will have limits about how to modify those limits.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#15

Post by [deleted] »

frgewut wrote: post #10
crimsonalucard wrote: post #2

This. Finally. People on HN think that startups, technology and economic growth have unlimited potential. This is pure stupidity at its finest. Observations of the natural world show a general trend: that everything, from physical resources to energy has limits. It is a mistake to believe that this general observation does not apply to technology and the human imagination. While we can comprehend what a limit in oil…

Of course there are limits (e.g. mass of human population will never exceed Earth's mass etc). But what these limits are? For example we can double the size of human economy by colonizing Mars. This sounds very achievable to me.

[deleted]

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#16

Post by eru »

gggggg11111 wrote: post #7

Considering we live in an infinite universe I do not see why economic growth can not continue even accelerate. Especially seeing that sometime this century we will get cheap space travel (getting there) and AI (getting there) and transition from fossil fuels to renewables and fusion (getting there) Tho' yes seeing how some of our best and brightest are working on how to serve more ads and how to get people spend thei…

How do you know the size of the universe we live in?

(To be pedantic, even in an infinite universe the size of the human-sphere couldn't grow faster than a ball expanding at the speed of light.)

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#17

Post by codeulike »

gggggg11111 wrote: post #7

Considering we live in an infinite universe I do not see why economic growth can not continue even accelerate. Especially seeing that sometime this century we will get cheap space travel (getting there) and AI (getting there) and transition from fossil fuels to renewables and fusion (getting there) Tho' yes seeing how some of our best and brightest are working on how to serve more ads and how to get people spend thei…

Finite matter tho.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#18

Post by minikites »

This article reminds me of http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2010/05/peter-victor-def...

>It took a couple of decades, but unemployment eventually fell to 4 percent, most people's standards of living actually rose, and greenhouse gas emissions decreased to well below Kyoto levels. The economy reached a "steady state." And if the model is accurate, then something like it, say some ecologically minded economists, may be the only way for humanity to survive in the long term.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#19

Post by Gatsky »

wildmusings wrote: post #12

There are many breakthroughs waiting to be made in medicine, energy production, geoengineering, space exploration, transportation, etc. Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time, which will allow the market for entertainment, travel, and luxury to grow much larger than today, and be accessible to many more people. But if we succumb to this pessimism, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I agree. But lately, I have been more aware of the fact that ecological catastrophe could make all this potential irrelevant.

Re: Why Economic Growth Will Fall

#20

Post by collyw »

wildmusings wrote: post #12

There are many breakthroughs waiting to be made in medicine, energy production, geoengineering, space exploration, transportation, etc. Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time, which will allow the market for entertainment, travel, and luxury to grow much larger than today, and be accessible to many more people. But if we succumb to this pessimism, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"Automation and AI will increase productivity and leisure time".

We got told this in the 70's (the automation part at least), yet seem to be working more and more hours now.

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