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We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

nautil.us

141–150 of 282 posts

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trust but confirm. The entire point of science, and this is not a hyperbole, is that results are reproducible. If the experiment is not reproducible one must take the results on faith. There is no such thing as faith based science. In order to build a shared body of knowledge based on scientific facts, then, results must be repeated. It is how different people can talk about the same thing, without fearing an asymmet…

> The entire point of science, and this is not a hyperbole, is that results are reproducible. No, it's not. The point of science -- its end -- is to understand the natural world. Or to cure diseases. Or, more cynically, to learn how build big bombs and more manipulative adverts. Reproducible results are the means, not the end. I know that seems like hair splitting, but it's important. Epistemological purity can do ju…

Science is a tool. Tools are means, not ends. We use sciene to gather facts we can agree on. But sciene isn't the "truth". Science isn't the facts. It a process. That produces facts. If and only if they are reproducible. Otherwise it is faith, religious, or a narative.

What's more, the scientific process is used discretely. One fact at a time. Understanding of our world, its meaning, these things are accumulative, over the entire context of our experience, and utilize things like feelings, and faith, and religion, and narative, to create.

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#142
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need to 'define repetition', we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition and b) does not accept something for a fact just because it's in a journal. Right now, (a) is not even acceptable; nobody will publish a replication study. Ofc, LHC is impossible to replicate, but the vast majority of life science studies are. I should think this is mostly needed in life sciences. Other, more 'exact' sciences…

> we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition Do we? I don't think we do. I think we need to foster a culture of honesty and rigor. Of good science. Which is decidedly different from fostering a culture of "repetition" for its own sake. Paying for the cost of mountains upon mountains of lab techs and materials that it would require to replicate every study published in a major journal just isn't a good use…

> Taking papers at face value is really only a problem in science reporting and at (very) sub-par institutions/venues. > WRT the former, science reporters often grossly misunderstand the paper anyways. All the good reproducible science in the world is of zero help if science reporters are going to bastardize the results beyond recognition anyways...

Science is funded by the public, and done for the public. Good science reporting is very important to ensure that science continues to get funded. Too often scientific papers are written in a way that makes them incomprehensible to anyone outside of the field, whether that is through pressure to use the least amount of words possible or use of technical jargon.

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#143
Many people have mentioned that replicating an experiment can be expensive, but I don't think anybody has really brought up just how expensive this can be.

Not all science is done in a lab. Replicating an experiment is obviously feasible for a short term psychology experiment, but in earth sciences (oceanography for instance.) it is far less often possible to reproduce an experiment for the following reasons. N.B. This is all from my personal experience of one field of science.

1.) Cost. If you got funding to take an ice-breaker to Antarctica to "do science" it required several million dollars to fund. It is difficult enough to secure funding for anything these days, none the less prohibitively expensive attempts to reproduce results. (honestly any serious research vessel will run costs into the millions, regardless of destination.)

2.) Time. Say you are on a research vessel taking measurements of the Amazon river basin. This is a trip that takes months to years to plan and execute. If you return to duplicate your experiment 2 years later, the ecology of the area you were taking measurements of may have changed completely.

3.) Politics. Earth sciences often require cooperation from foreign entities, many of which are not particularly stable, or whom may be engaging in political machinations that run counter to your nationality's presence in the country, or both. Iran and China are two good examples. Both are home to some excellent oceanographers, and both of which can be very difficult to Science in when your team includes non Iranian/Chinese nationalities.

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#144
In for instance, a bioscience lab, I don't believe that results should even be accepted unless they're repeated with similar reagents. Some reagents are so specific they only prove something.... for that one single thing, which could be unique on this planet.

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#145
post #79
post #59

Define repetition. It's not as simple as that, for all sciences - once again an article on repeatability seems to have focused on medicinal drug research (it's usually that or psychology), and labelled the entire "Scientific community" as 'rampant' with " statistical, technical, and psychological biases". How about, Physics? The LHC has only been built once - it is the only accelerator we have that has seen the Higgs…

We don't need to 'define repetition', we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition and b) does not accept something for a fact just because it's in a journal. Right now, (a) is not even acceptable; nobody will publish a replication study. Ofc, LHC is impossible to replicate, but the vast majority of life science studies are. I should think this is mostly needed in life sciences. Other, more 'exact' sciences…

>Other, more 'exact' sciences seem to not have this problem

I'm not sure of this. By 'exact' disciplines I'm assuming you mean disciplines of science more dependent on mathematical proofs. A CACM paper a little bit ago discusses this, and found a large number of papers where not repeatable. If I recall, it mostly focused on that nobody shares code and/or the code didn't build.

http://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2016/3/198873-repeatability-in...

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#146
post #79
post #59

Define repetition. It's not as simple as that, for all sciences - once again an article on repeatability seems to have focused on medicinal drug research (it's usually that or psychology), and labelled the entire "Scientific community" as 'rampant' with " statistical, technical, and psychological biases". How about, Physics? The LHC has only been built once - it is the only accelerator we have that has seen the Higgs…

We don't need to 'define repetition', we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition and b) does not accept something for a fact just because it's in a journal. Right now, (a) is not even acceptable; nobody will publish a replication study. Ofc, LHC is impossible to replicate, but the vast majority of life science studies are. I should think this is mostly needed in life sciences. Other, more 'exact' sciences…

The key here is we need a culture of skepticism. That's the fundamental core philosophical trait of the enlightenment: not belief in what anyone says (just 'cause they say it or have authority to say it) but doubt in claims until they are rationally proven, and proven again, and proven again. Skepticism builds on itself because a culture where everyone is skeptical is a culture where the burden of proof lies with the claimant. This applies to science as well: whether an experiment is repeated once or hundreds of times, the real measure is to what degree it convinces the winnowing number of skeptics aligned against the idea.

Re: We Should Not Accept Scientific Results That Have Not Been Repeated

#147
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need to 'define repetition', we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition and b) does not accept something for a fact just because it's in a journal. Right now, (a) is not even acceptable; nobody will publish a replication study. Ofc, LHC is impossible to replicate, but the vast majority of life science studies are. I should think this is mostly needed in life sciences. Other, more 'exact' sciences…

> we need to foster a culture that a) accepts repetition Do we? I don't think we do. I think we need to foster a culture of honesty and rigor. Of good science. Which is decidedly different from fostering a culture of "repetition" for its own sake. Paying for the cost of mountains upon mountains of lab techs and materials that it would require to replicate every study published in a major journal just isn't a good use…

> I think we need to foster a culture of honesty and rigor. Of good science. Which is decidedly different from fostering a culture of "repetition" for its own sake.

That is not sufficient. Honesty and rigor is of course required for good science, but it is not sufficient.

Even if honesty and rigor you WILL still get false positives. Statistics is used to measure how likely this is. Statistical methods do nothing to tell you if any particular case happens to be a false positive. For many studies a confidence of 95% is considered good enough to publish, but if you do the math that means a honest researcher who publishes 20 such studies has probably published one false result! If there are 20 studies published in a journal statistically one is false. Thus replication is important.

It gets worse though, the unexpected is published more often - if it is true it means a major change to our current theories and this is important to published. However our theories have been created and refined over many years, it is somewhat unlikely they are wrong (but not impossible). Or to put it a different way, if I carefully drop big and small rocks off the leaning town of Pisa and measure that the large rock "falls faster" that is more likely to be published than if I found they fell at the same speed. I think most of us would be suspicious of that result, but after examining my "methods and data" will not show any mistake I made. Most science is in areas where wrong results are not so obvious.

> It's impossible to re-verify every single paper you read

True, but somebody needs to re-verify every paper. It need not be you personally, but someone needs to. Meta-analysis only works if people re-verify every paper. Note that you don't need to do the exact experiment, verifying results with a different experiment design is probably more useful than repeating the exact same experiment: it might by chance remove a design factors that we don't even know we need to account for yet.

> And I'm pretty sure literally no scientist takes a paper's own description of its results at face value without reading through methods and looking at (at least) a summary of the data.

I hope not, but even if they check out, it doesn't follow that things are correct. Maybe something wasn't calibrated correctly and that wasn't noticed. Maybe there are other random factors nobody knows to account for today.

The above all assumes that good science is possible. In medical fields you may only have a few case studies: several different doctors saw different people each with some rare disease, tried some treatment and got some result. There is no control, no blinding, and a sample size of 1. But it is a rare disease so you cannot do better.

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