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The Alice and Bob After Dinner Speech (1984)

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Re: The Alice and Bob After Dinner Speech (1984)

#6

I find it interesting that exaggerated description of the pocket calculator at the end sounded a lot like a smart phone. Looks like predictions about future tech can be accurate after all.

I feel like the most accurate predictions start as satire or comedy, not as serious bets. Satire plays to our gut instinct of what we suspect from the nature of future, and is shielded from technical criticism, so people feel more comfortable to take a stab at it without having to hedge.

Re: The Alice and Bob After Dinner Speech (1984)

#8
post #6

I find it interesting that exaggerated description of the pocket calculator at the end sounded a lot like a smart phone. Looks like predictions about future tech can be accurate after all.

I feel like the most accurate predictions start as satire or comedy, not as serious bets. Satire plays to our gut instinct of what we suspect from the nature of future, and is shielded from technical criticism, so people feel more comfortable to take a stab at it without having to hedge.

There was a short story, which appeared in one of the HP calculator-centric publications of the 70's or 80's, I think written by a certain George R.R. Martin or Gordon Dickson, which attempted to extrapolate the HP 41CX into a portable voice activated assistant that could schedule appointments for you. I remember thinking that was pretty far fetched for a calculator. I don't think it would have made much more sense if the author had referred to the device as a "phone"...
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