Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> Reducing the population takes a lot longer. There are also involuntary reduction methods...
As the saying goes: you first.
That people are starving to death, die in an epidemic or kill each other is all my fault.
Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
131–140 of 198 posts
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nuclear costs more than wind without subsidies making it a non starter. We are still wasting a lot of money on nuclear R&D in the misplaced hope of changing this, but the underlying economics are still terrible. In terms of change, we have dramatically cut back on CO2 production vs. predictions from even 10 years ago. So we are making progress.
It is cheaper than wind plus storage. Wind plus storage might even be impossible to meet baseload requirements with current technology. Even if battery costs fall by 80%, they wouldn't feasibly be able to store grid-scale electricity for weeks. But admittedly the situation may change within the lifetime of a new nuclear station, or even in the 20 years before it's actually built.
Yes.
Base load power is a misnomer based on coal/nuclear plants having poor responses to changing demand. Without fuel use over production is completely viable. Some net storage for 99.9% reliability for a combo of wind / solar / hydro in the US adds ~10-20% which is still vastly lower than nuclear which is expensive even after massive subsides.
Yes, the grid will look rather different, but backbone power transmission is going to stay a tiny percentage of GDP.
(The gap between max wind output and median output is huge, but the gap between median output and minimum output over a day for a large area is much smaller.)
PS: You see a lot of overly simplistic analysis that fails to account for the hydro power as energy storage and shifting demand east west to shift solar production vs. demand. A massive dam stores a lot of power which can be released on demand at any point in the year. Add some pumped hydro storage for fitting the day to day demand curve which can be thousands of miles from both production and use and storage is already both cheap and a solved problem.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#133I see articles like this that are pure fear mongering and weep. It didn't mention El Nino even once.
Yet a massive El Nino event caused the increase in world temperature and higher rainfall around the world in 2016. This isn't even a debatable fact, yet apparently not worth mentioning in an article about weather and temperature events in 2016.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm all for nuclear in the short-term, but in the long-term it's just substituting one problem for another. I don't see how we can possibly break out of this cycle without revisiting the notion of an infinite-growth economy. Until we curb human population and energy consumption, we'll continue sprinting from dead-end to dead-end.
Human population is already leveling off. The richer a people become, the lower their reproduction rate. The lack of population growth has already become a major economic issue in many parts of the world. And we have, for all current intents and purposes, an infinite supply of nuclear, solar, and wind energy.
The issue with nuclear power is waste, not supply. I'm the first to argue that radiological waste is the ideal form of toxic waste -- dense and contained -- but we still can't consume an infinite amount.
Further, I question the notion that solar and wind power are infinite in supply. At some point, absorbing solar radiation that would otherwise heat the surface of the earth must have some effect on global weather patterns, and a similar argument can be made for wind power. I don't think we're anywhere near that point, but it just goes to show that the "infinite growth" mindset is extremely problematic in the long run.
As for human population, this is true of first-world countries, but not universally true. India is an example of extreme demographic growth.
Any way you want to cut it, our power (or, more generally, resource) demands cannot grow infinitely. Where you are correct is in pointing out that the population constraint is fundamentally at odds with the geopolitical and economic need for demographic growth. This is precisely the point I'm lamenting.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
Part of the problem is that there's a certain group of people who are more interested in pushing their pet solutions than they are in pushing effective solutions. Most of the analyses I've read say that stuff like nuclear and geothermal aren't going to be major components of the fight against climate change. For nuclear specifically, a mass roll out of nuclear plants is simply too difficult - cost, production bottlen…
"For nuclear specifically, a mass roll out of nuclear plants is simply too difficult - cost, production bottlenecks, public opposition, production time and delays, etc." And yet many Asian countries are doing just this.
Which countries? China is usually the one that gets mentioned the most for really pushing nuclear (which they've been doing for years now), but they're currently at about 3% and are hoping to reach 4% by 2020. And even at this pace, they're facing serious problems[1][2].
[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-01-11/china-shou...
[2]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/aug/25/wikileak...
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#136What is this data based on? From my own experience, living on Vancouver Island, temperatures this summer have been much cooler than in recent years. This summer has been almost exactly average in temp, compared to above average for the last few years. Looking at accuweather's data (www.accuweather.com, search for a city, then click 'month'), virtually everywhere in the US has been pretty much bang on the average temp…
What drought? it rained in my town today.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#137climate change is one of those few issues where an alarmist attitude is actually needed. Still need to get more media outlets to change from saying "save the planet" to "save humanity".
Why? Humanity will be fine. At worst some people will have to move a bit inland.
Under some predictions, parts of the Middle East and North Africa might become, if not uninhabitable, very uncomfortable (50C+ summer averages) by the end of the century, with all the consequences that arise from this.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Present experience proves that people, especially the impoverished, can't just easily uproot and leave one country for another, with no political or sociological consequences whatsoever.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
"For nuclear specifically, a mass roll out of nuclear plants is simply too difficult - cost, production bottlenecks, public opposition, production time and delays, etc." And yet many Asian countries are doing just this.
Which countries? China is usually the one that gets mentioned the most for really pushing nuclear (which they've been doing for years now), but they're currently at about 3% and are hoping to reach 4% by 2020. And even at this pace, they're facing serious problems[1][2]. [1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-01-11/china-shou... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/aug/25/wikileak...
"Serious problems" is pretty disingenuous. They're facing increased risk as a result of using updated 2nd-generation technology, rather than licensing the Westinghouse AP-1000 design at enormous cost. They're aware of the chance they're taking, but they also seem to consider that less of a risk than being beholden to a US firm.
Whether that's an accurate assessment in the long run or not, it's their choice to make, and not one the US would be likely to emulate - after all, we've got Westinghouse and the AP-1000 design right here. We've also got a much more thoroughly developed uranium production pipeline and a similar extent of available reserves, which means we won't face the same structural problems China does in ramping up fuel production - they're essentially having to build that process from scratch, and there's only so far it's worth letting your plant production outpace your ability to fuel the reactors you're building.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#139I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…
> How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties?
I would recommend the Mr. Money Mustache blog. While its premise is early retirement/financial independence, the author writes extensively about lifestyle design. His actual (self-stated) goal is to save humans from destroying themselves.
The prescriptions sound drastic at first (ride a bike for any trip under 10 miles?!) but it turns out they also make you healthier and richer.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
The word hippy and the negative connotations associated with it are fascinating to me, it's amazing how western societies have created a negative connotation to describe a person who is probably more caring, conscious and alternate thinking than your average citizen. Basically a hippy is someone guilty of 'thought crime'. It's an amazing device.
You're more than welcome to continue to be fascinated... and ineffective. Sometimes you need to come down from your moral highground to meet the enemy.
Thanks for validating my point :)