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Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

reuters.com

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Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#31

Post by nabla9 »

cconcepts wrote: post #9

I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…

Making adjustments into your own life helps if it changes cultural norms. If not, you are just making it cheaper for others to consume C2O.

Pushing for carbon tax and carbon trade is the best overall option. Devil is in the details, of course. Carbon tax should be significant and carbon trade shouldn't have loopholes. It should prevent exporting carbon production to other countries (carbon tax for imported products). It should involve meat production (according to FAO meat consumption produces 17% of human carbon emissions, more than transportation).

Biggest problem is attitude against measures that are large enough. People accept measures against climate change only if they are sold with promises of immediate rewards.

Economic estimates of the cost of effective measures vary, but typical estimate is 0.5 - 1% reduction into world GDP. This is something we don't have political will to do and mentioning negatives is a taboo. Rational people just flatly refuse to acknowledge that it's possible that reducing carbon emissions might be net negative for economy next 20-40 years. Only our children would see the benefits.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#32

Post by madaxe_again »

pif wrote: post #26
madaxe_again wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And even some products which supposedly provide free apples are made with apples, and require themselves to be used beyond their serviceable lifetime to provide more apples than went into making them. In short, we either need a radical new source of apples, or we need to find a way to use far fewer apples.

> we either need a radical new source of apples, or we need to find a way to use far fewer apples. I'm afraid that in no way we can have the second without the first one. People switched to fossil fuels because life was way too much easier with them, and no climate change can convince us to go back unless we find another big source of cheap energy or, simply, we exhaust the oil fields.

We basically need portable fusion, or micro-hydrogen turbines powered by hydrogen formed by electrolysis of seawater from purely renewable sources. It's quite an ask, given that, as you say, fossil is cheap and easy - although not as cheap as it used to be to get at - but artificially cheap on the market in a (in my view) desperate lunge to stave off the inevitable fall, as their real production costs catch up with them. There's a reason they're investing increasingly in "alternative" energy sources, and moving branding towards energy from fossil fuels. The market will act, but I fear too late.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#33

Post by Noseshine »

LeanderK wrote: post #17
cconcepts wrote: post #9

I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…

why not engage actively in an NGO fighting to battle climate change? Most of them have developed ties to the government where they can really push for a certain agenda and have a realistic chance of success. Most of the major cities (in the west, idk about the other parts of the world) have their own small NGOs, but there is always greenpeace etc. They need support on the streets, but also help with their infrastruct…

That doesn't really answer the question though. You merely named a proxy - what you can do is support that other guy. It doesn't say what that other guy - the NGO - is supposed to do, it merely presupposes that the NGOs know what they are doing, without saying anything about what that is in concrete terms. I don't consider anything along the lines of "raising awareness" an answer, so just increasing the size of the movement (movement for and/or towards what?).

I don't see lowering energy consumption worldwide as a realistic goal, the opposite may happen and be necessary. In the coming decades the already waaayyyyy too warm regions of the earth like the Middle East will become even warmer, their only options are moving somewhere else or using energy to create livable spaces (i.e. AC). Just like they made cities like Phoenix, AZ, possible. Without greater energy use we will have another "Völkerwanderung". By the way, the problem of heat isn't just to survive it - doing any productive work, brain work or manual labor, requires lower temperatures than mere survival.

Given the advances in renewable energy technology that seems feasible.

Nor do I think restriction would significantly help, it seems we've already gone too far. It's like walking on ice and the path back now has so many cracks it's actually more dangerous than the path forward. Of course, which path forward still matters, but "use less energy" is the path back.

Not to mention psychology: Setting a goal of "go back to when we used less resources, limit yourself, live your life with as little impact as possible - don't move around (travel) so much, etc." doesn't sound nearly as appealing than a goal that encompasses activity and progress. Resources are finite - but our abilities to create actual cycles instead of one-way streets (to huge waste dumps) are not. I don't think the main message can or should be one of limitation and restriction, that's not what makes humans "tick" - no matter how you think about it (i.e. for better or worse).

That said, I think it's not outside the realm of possibilities that huge disruptions are possible and the death of a lot - and I mean a lot - of people. I don't know enough about agriculture, but I think our food production - and let's not forget water - are systems that are "anti-fragile", to use Taleb's term.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#34

Post by Brakenshire »

Shivetya wrote: post #11

except that temperatures dropped in June by a large amount after El Nino started to wane. The La Nina that is coming could once again stall the "warming". Let alone, the warmest title is for years since 1979, its not like we have satellite data that is accurate and going back that long. We do however have drought data including some good numbers out of China that shows clear cycles in weather for centuries. So long s…

The temperature dropped in June in the sense that the rather than being 0.3 degrees warmer than the warmest equivalent month, now it's only 0.2 warmer than the warmest equivalent month ever recorded. That is an odd sort of progress.

Also, the records don't go back to 1979, most go back to the start of the instrumental record in the 1880's. And satellite data isn't a panacea, the process of getting from the direct measurements to a temperature distribution involves a significant amount of processing based on theoretical models, and corrections for factors like orbital decay, and different satellites and processing methodologies have historically shown a lot of disagreement. It's all useful data, but it's not as if satellites are perfect and everything that comes before is worthless.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#35

Post by teekert »

cconcepts wrote: post #9

I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…

Meh, I read everywhere that solar is taking over, electricity prices go negative, countries run for days on pure renewable energy and a solar company won a contract for a powerplant over all other contestants in Dubai. Electric cars are the future even it is was only for their performance, the increased amount of interior space and the ease of "fuel" distribution.

Admittedly, my country (Netherlands) is still fully on coal and the worst offender for CO2 emissions is apparently the large seafaring companies who we can only limit by buying more local (which is a trend anyway).

I'm not too worried, at least about the anthropocentric part of the deal. What will happen apart from that will happen anyway so also no need to worry about that.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#36

Post by knowThySelfx »

CO2 is the only culprit?

This one says Ozone layer is recovering: http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/6...

This one says increased CO2 has helped the speedy recovery of Ozone: http://classroom.synonym.com/co2-deplete-ozone-layer-4828.ht...

I understand the topic is climate change. Probably there are other factors contributing to it. Its been said Methane and NOx are more potent. Is there an increase in those emissions? We are only looking at CO2 it seems.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#37

Post by ObeyTheGuts »

madaxe_again wrote: post #30
ralfd wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> more than any decade in the past, > Humans have survived ice ages - civilisations and societies have not, to our knowledge - humans will likely survive this - but this civilisation - who knows. From a historic perspective the CO2 were vastly higher for hundred of millions of years. Climate change will be a challenge (sea level rise for Calcutta, New York etc) but I doubt it will be a doomsday scenario.

Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system - but we have already seen what even phantasmic disruption (i.e. the subprime triggered global crash) can cause, and we are already seeing the tremors of political unstability in nations where such a thing seemed unthinkable only a few years ago - and these things do not happen in a vacuum. What I'm saying is that it doesn't require every human, every bureaucrat, every…

Only problem in world righ now apart from constant growing number of humans is isolation and borders, when u lock down shitty spots they just keep boiling pressure rizes and here comes da booom, opening all borders for free human movement all over the planet is first priority to avoid desperate getting more desperate and angry, its a win win for everyone more people have access to knowledge more will become smart, more smsrt people = better life for everyone.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#38

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

madaxe_again wrote: post #30
ralfd wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> more than any decade in the past, > Humans have survived ice ages - civilisations and societies have not, to our knowledge - humans will likely survive this - but this civilisation - who knows. From a historic perspective the CO2 were vastly higher for hundred of millions of years. Climate change will be a challenge (sea level rise for Calcutta, New York etc) but I doubt it will be a doomsday scenario.

Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system - but we have already seen what even phantasmic disruption (i.e. the subprime triggered global crash) can cause, and we are already seeing the tremors of political unstability in nations where such a thing seemed unthinkable only a few years ago - and these things do not happen in a vacuum. What I'm saying is that it doesn't require every human, every bureaucrat, every…

>Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system

This.

Worse, it's a chaotically stable system run by people who have no idea what a chaotically stable system is, or how little change is needed for the wheels to come off.

I'm not even slightly optimistic, because as a species we have evolved exactly the wrong kind of management and decision-making processes to get through this.

Survival requires being able to think at the species and planetary level.

Too many humans are unable to think beyond their own individual short-term interests, with clan (tribal and class) interests coming a close second.

Until that changes, planet-sized problems like climate change are inherently unsolvable.

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#39

Post by melling »

teekert wrote: post #35
cconcepts wrote: post #9

I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…

Meh, I read everywhere that solar is taking over, electricity prices go negative, countries run for days on pure renewable energy and a solar company won a contract for a powerplant over all other contestants in Dubai. Electric cars are the future even it is was only for their performance, the increased amount of interior space and the ease of "fuel" distribution. Admittedly, my country (Netherlands) is still fully o…

Coal is the biggest source of electricity. it's 39% in the US and over 70% in China, for example:

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China

Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change

#40

Post by gst »

cconcepts wrote: post #9

I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass. I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties? Start pushing for a carbon tax? Start a…

IMO the problem is that most sides in the discussion don't propose any viable solutions:

On one side there are the climate change deniers (and the people who don't care about it). They are fine to continue business as usual.

On the other side there are the people who are concerned about climate change. But instead of agreeing to effective solutions (compromises) that allow us to somewhat mitigate global warming (such as nuclear energy) they oppose those solutions and instead propose things that are 1) not realistic to implement in the short-term and that 2) the first group (the climate change deniers) would never agree to.

Basically the outcome is that we're stuck in a grid lock now and nothing happens at all.

Regarding nuclear energy: Most of the people whom I know oppose nuclear energy because of 1) "what happens if there's an accident" and 2) "what should we do with the waste". My response to this: 1) Per TWH nuclear energy is statistically safer than other energy sources: http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-so... and 2) While there are some more long-term approaches for waste (reprocessing, maybe Thorium) even in the short-term I prefer a well definied disposal site over just blowing the waste into their air (which is what happens with fossil-fuel powered plants. I recommend reading http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/james-lovel... for a few more arguments.

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