Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
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Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#2IOW climate change is even worse than scientists anticipated.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#3How much of it is due to El Niño, and how much due to global warming proper? Is it difficult to figure out? The article doesn't say.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#4IOW climate change is even worse than scientists anticipated.
While this is true, I think that what the article is trying to point out is not that climate change is worse, but that the models we have do not work in the current conditions. This is scary, because scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought.
If predictions from 10 years ago, let's say, had been replaced by worse predictions one or two years ago, we would still know with some certainty what will happen next. But what the article says is that everything we know is that things are getting worse than expected and we have no way to know how worse. Scary.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#5IOW climate change is even worse than scientists anticipated.
You cannot make any conclusions about climate change from the temperature over such a short time span.
Only a couple of years ago, people were saying that this climate change fad was a load of rubbish because the temperature had stabilised for a year or two. That's not how it works. Hot years and cool years will always exist. What climate scientists are very sure of now is that the long term average trend is upwards.
Yes, these record temperatures are supporting evidence of the upwards trend in temperatures, but they are not in themselves a sudden change in what we understand of the climate.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#6IOW climate change is even worse than scientists anticipated.
While this is true, I think that what the article is trying to point out is not that climate change is worse, but that the models we have do not work in the current conditions. This is scary, because scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought. If predictions from 10 years ago, let's say, had been replaced by worse predicti…
>> scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#7IOW climate change is even worse than scientists anticipated.
While this is true, I think that what the article is trying to point out is not that climate change is worse, but that the models we have do not work in the current conditions. This is scary, because scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought. If predictions from 10 years ago, let's say, had been replaced by worse predicti…
That's the problem with modelling nonlinear systems. Your approximations work OK for small changes, but might diverge dramatically for larger deviations from the starting point.
This is why we need to completely stop producing GHGs as soon as possible. The longer we wait the further we slip into unknown territory.
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#8How much of it is due to El Niño, and how much due to global warming proper? Is it difficult to figure out? The article doesn't say.
From Bad Astronomy, El Niño accounts for around 0.1C globally: http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/07/20/june_201...
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#9I have no doubt that climate change is a problem. I have kids, I dont want to give them a hospital pass.
I've tried to stop living such a carbon dependant lifestyle but I look outside and my efforts feel futile. How do I REALLY do something about this other than a few pretentious yet barely discomforting lifestyle changes and the odd empassioned few sentences at dinner parties?
Start pushing for a carbon tax?
Start an electric car company?
Begin development of technology to get us to Ma.....oh wait
Plant heaps of trees?
Buy drones and start my own version of operation sunscreen?
Seriously. The mild excitement that comes with media alarmism has transitioned into "I really need to start doing something drastic or I'll regret it"
Re: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change
#10It seems pretty clear to me what is going to happen over the coming century.
The world has turned a blind eye to the millions dying from starvation and preventable disease. And will do so again when tens to hundreds of millions die from the effects of climate change e.g. starvation, flooding, heat waves etc.
And as the disaffected and left behind turn to terrorist acts to vent their frustration the rest of humanity will close borders, become more xenophobic and intolerant. Governments will be polarised to the extent that they will be largely ineffectual.
Ultimately it is going to be the likes of Tesla and hopefully Apple to make electric cars a lust item, scientists to finally get nuclear fusion, carbon storage and renewable battery technology working and entrepreneurs to glue it all together.