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The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

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Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#161
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Etsy comes up pretty often. http://phd.meghan-smith.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Cox-T...

Sorry - that's an overview of how ONE company find value in diversity. We are asking for research that shows that companies like Etsy outperform (on any metric) companies that don't really care about diversity (judged by their actual hiring practices, not paying lip service to it). Because the availability heuristic points to the other 99% of Silicon Valley that's doing quite well without caring about diversity.

That research does not exist, because it's astoundingly narrow and this topic is immensely difficult to research, in general, let alone compound some kind of review or whatever it is you're looking for.

Have you tried Googling? Here are some interesting results (keep in mind science is almost never a home run; that is, you're not going to ever find a study that's like, "We definitively solve this problem for all time and for all mankind"):

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stephen_Tallman/publication/228123261_Effects_of_International_Diversity_and_Product_Diversity_on_the_Performance_of_Multinational_Firms/links/00b7d5267dc1adc6d2000000.pdf

    http://asq.sagepub.com/content/44/1/1.short

    https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/diversity-work-group-performance

    http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/why-diversity-matters

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-diversity-makes-us-smarter/

    http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/why-does-lack-of-gender-diversity-hurt-performance

    http://enewsline.aacsb.edu/diversity-in-groups-can-improve-innovation-and-performance.asp

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053482209000795

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567114001786

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be honest I haven't been following a lot of his positions on things other than what spills over into the tech/security folks I follow on twitter and various other sites. I didn't know about the NATO comments but here's what I learned about him just today [0]: (edit: talking about whether Trump would defend Turkey if Russia invaded unprovoked): Trump said he would have to think about whether those countries “have…

Enforcing the obligation means NATO doesn't exist. Only the US and Estonia would be left. Advocating for them to meet the pledge is one thing, but refusing to defend them under the treaty because of it would be catastrophic. http://www.businessinsider.com/only-us-and-estonia-meeting-n...

But people hate it when the United States police the world. Why should the United States holds its end of the deal and defends those if they don't hold their end of the deal? People want the United States to stop policing the world. Well, under Trump, the United States will stop policing the world. Isn't that what people want?

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#163
post #5

While I don't agree with everything Thiel believes, it's really, really refreshing to get a different take from the upper echelons of the tech industry. If you follow a lot of VCs and CEOs on Twitter you'll find that they have a nearly homogenous political groupthink. This industry needs more diversity of thought and Thiel stands alone in his strength to go against the grain and stand by his philosophy. Love his idea…

I don't understand how somebody who claims to be fact-driven and rational like Thiel can end up supporting Trump. If anything, he should be disgusted with the whole system and try to change it.

Can you clarify on what system you're talking about? And what are the problems with that system? And what should Thiel do to change it? And important, what does Thiel wants? And how does changing the system align with what he wants?

You have to remember that Theil doesn't want the same thing you want. Just because you want something doesn't mean Theil want the same thing, or has the same goal.

Theil knows exactly what he wants, that is why he supports Trump. It seems to be you who does not understand what Theil wants. Because if he wants the same thing you wants, he would have supported what you supported.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#164
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What positions has Trump taken that you feel are against facts and adequate rational?

Have you paid attention at all? Anti-climate change, anti-vaccines, the entire illegal immigration schtick (immigration across the border is net neutral right now), his whole "crime is rising" schtick (it isn't),and the vast majority of [what he says are outright lies]( http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/ ). There is no better way to describe the Trump campaign than to say it is inherently against f…

>...a billionaire proposing tax cuts for the super wealthy is "fighting the system" is a delusional....

You act as if Trump is only helping the rich. Trump is helping everyone. Although he cut taxes for the rich, he also cut taxes for the poor.

Under Trump's tax plan, poor people don't even pay tax.

If you're single and you make less than $25,000 per year, you don't pay tax.

If you have a wife and you make less than $50,000 per year, you don't pay tax.

If you have a wife and a kid and you make less than $75,000 per year, you don't pay tax.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#165

There is no evidence that Thiel is a genius. There's a large amount of evidence that he is not. And yet people still think that because one of his hundreds of investments made a lot of money that he must be a genius. He's just not who people want him to be. He's not another Musk.

So what is the point you're trying to make. That Thiel's opinion about Trump is wrong because he is not a genuis? Dude, really, it's just his opinion, man.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you paid attention at all? Anti-climate change, anti-vaccines, the entire illegal immigration schtick (immigration across the border is net neutral right now), his whole "crime is rising" schtick (it isn't),and the vast majority of [what he says are outright lies]( http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/ ). There is no better way to describe the Trump campaign than to say it is inherently against f…

>...a billionaire proposing tax cuts for the super wealthy is "fighting the system" is a delusional.... You act as if Trump is only helping the rich. Trump is helping everyone. Although he cut taxes for the rich, he also cut taxes for the poor. Under Trump's tax plan, poor people don't even pay tax. If you're single and you make less than $25,000 per year, you don't pay tax. If you have a wife and you make less than…

And there will be gigantic deficits that somehow will be compensated by some future economic growth.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#167
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shall we extend the same curtesy to those who oppose other forms of universal suffrage? > I'm sure he's heard all the traditional arguments like we have, which means he has additional information that I don't. It means nothing of the kind. Occam's razor suggests, rather, that he reasons differently than you (or at least me). > Don't you think it's more intellectually honest to question and hear what others have to sa…

>we have an arrogant economic royalist lamenting the consequences of women having a political voice ... but equally clear that he has no novel, reasonable justification for disenfranchising women. Hilarious! This is exactly what I'm talking about! You have no idea how he got to his position, but you've already made up your mind as to how he got there. And to top it off, you go on this big rant that places you above h…

Shall we discuss hard epistemology? Fine.

> You have no idea how he got to his position

False. I cannot prove how. The objection is pure sophistry. Were I to ask him, "how did you arrive at this position", his answer could be a lie. Would you commit the fundamental attribution error and assume that he would tell the truth? Perhaps he secretly doesn't even believe what he claimed to believe!

I doubt very much that you live your life doubting all things beyond your own thoughts. Trotting out a single fallacy mode and applying it in a scope carefully limited to bolster your argument is a rhetorical method for scoring debate points, not sound logic.

You are attempting to use "intellectual honesty" as a cudgel. Who wouldn't want to be intellectually honest?! Of course, you'll be the judge of when someone has met the criteria for honesty, and that will depend on whether they agree with you or not.

I am under no misunderstanding as to what I can and cannot know. I am completely comfortable with using mental shorthand to navigate the world. I do not need to stop and listen to every individual born-again christian to discover if they are the one that holds the key to my finally knowing the truth.

I do, in fact, have a very good idea as to how Thiel arrived at his position. I have a very good idea about why Strom Thurmond opposed the civil rights act of 1964. I have a very good idea that the sun will rise tomorrow.

> you go on this big rant that places you above him in terms of virtue

Yes, precisely. We all hold values. I find his to be in conflict with mine.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#168
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>mathematically and logically correct There is nothing mathematical or logical about value judgements. Those are two fields that pride themselves in that. You are deciding that the opinion is idiotic because it's not your own opinion. >If I hear additional information, I am happy to revise my opinion if necessary. But for the time being you're willing to paint someone as an idiot without knowing why they've developed…

You don't need to know why someone thinks that 2 times 2 is 6 to assume that person is at least somewhat an idiot. Women's right to vote is pretty much equivalent to that. Also notice my phrasing: substantial likelihood

Women's suffrage (and suffrage in general) may be a good idea. When you say that the case for it being a good idea is as strong as that for a mathematical proof, you're discrediting yourself, since you're smart enough to know that political ideas can never achieve the rigor of proof.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under what rubric is the more effective rollout of less objectionable policies a greater loss to society than the less effective rollout of more objectionable policies? This dogma holds consolidation of power to be bad /in and of itself/, rather than because of a consequence, such as "consolidated power leads to suffering." If that's your opinion, fine, but it's no different than any other religion.

> Under what rubric is the more effective rollout of less objectionable policies a greater loss to society than the less effective rollout of more objectionable policies? A small slice of a giant pie is bigger than a large slice of a tiny pie?

Ok, I understand. You literally mean that both of them will only introduce objectionable policies, not that "less objectionable" might mean, in some cases, "good."

I still don't see the outcome you predict.

TLDR; power consolidation is a risk factor that leads to actual bad policy, not something with actual, palpable negative value in and of itself. E.g. the power of the federal government to end slavery is a win in my book.

* * * *

Let's map "objectionability" onto a number line.

A neutral policy is zero. An objectionable one is on the negative side, a non-objectionable one is on the positive side. The magnitude of the objectionability or virtue yields the magnitude of the number.

I'll go with your presumption that both Clinton and Trump's policies are only found on the negative side of that line. And we'll deal with their policies in aggregate. We'll also assume that current policy is perfectly neutral, at zero:

T = Trump APV (avg policy value)

C = Clinton APV

0 = CPV (current policy value)

Let's map effectiveness to a float between 0 and 1. Simple. If Trump's policies are twice as bad as Clinton's, he has to be half as effective as she for them to equal out. Here's a little table:

APV, Effect, Total value, Who, Worse

-20, .05, -1, Trump, O

-2, .95, -1.9, Clinton, X

-20, .1, -2, Trump, X

-2, .9, -1.8, Clinton, O

-10, .05, -0.5, Trump, O

-2, .95, -1.9, Clinton, X

-10, .2, -2, Trump, X

-2, .8, -1.6, Clinton, O

The problem with that simplification is the assumption that CPV is at neutral, zero. And mapping effectiveness to a scalar factor of APV is also incorrect -- instead, it has to be understood as a normalization factor, attempting to return CPV to APV. The greater the effectiveness, the more quickly CPV achieves APV.

Should any factor bring CPV further negative than Clinton's APV, her effectiveness would become a force that lifts CPV. Meanwhile, Trump's is always attempting to pull CPV further negative towards his abysmal APV.

Re: The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter

#170
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to know why someone thinks that 2 times 2 is 6 to assume that person is at least somewhat an idiot. Women's right to vote is pretty much equivalent to that. Also notice my phrasing: substantial likelihood

Women's suffrage (and suffrage in general) may be a good idea. When you say that the case for it being a good idea is as strong as that for a mathematical proof, you're discrediting yourself, since you're smart enough to know that political ideas can never achieve the rigor of proof.

you are clearly missing the point of this conversation. The point of this conversation is not to claim that 2 times 2 is equal to women's suffrage, but to simply state the obvious: when somebody says something that sounds pretty obviously idiotic, the likelihood that this person actually is an idiot goes up dramatically.
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