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What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

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221–230 of 310 posts

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Putting aside how [President] Elon Musk pays for it all, facepalm you can't compare the side effects of a massive government spending plan without looking at that! It'll all come out eventually. Either we borrow, and tax our future generations, or we tax more businesses now, which would also repress business activity and American competitiveness. There's a few items that could be solved with the market. Like: Remov…

>There's a few items that could be solved with the market. Like: Remove city's zoning laws with a federal mandate, to encourage the market to build urban housing. You don't need the gov. to do it, just remove the limitations. Disallow internet providers from offering kickbacks to condo/apartment managers to open up the market. We should probably tax semi trucks & cars with snow tires more, because they're the ones th…

Hmmm. I'll agree to antitrust, but with a caveat. Most monopolies are government-enforced in the first place. Through some means or another, the government grants a business or group of business privileges above the other, usually through making it difficult to entry a market. Natural monopolies just aren't that bad--- they get to be natural monopolies because they're efficient and they're granted consumers good products at good prices.

> Or we invest in infrastructure and R&D now to make the profit later. You know, like every sane country in history prior to the Reagan Revolution.

But, do politicians ever get away from deficit spending? In order to follow the Keynes playbook you suggest, we need to take in a surplus eventually to pay off loans. And if we're taking this money from a larger economy the deficit spending has created, then Keynes' strategy also relies on the money being well spent. It's not enough to have employed people, they have to be projects that do help the economy and help wealth creation. Digging a hole & filling it up will not generate the profit we can skim in the future. And I question the ability of the government to spend money well.

In general though, it just becomes an engineering/finance problem. (And whenever we can turn an emotional political problem in a boring engineering/finance problem. that's a good thing.) I suspect that highway expansions are usually worth it. Subway and light rail are questionable. I agree that subways are really awesome to ride, but the true cost of subways are masked from the consumer. The $2.75/trip new yorkers pay is about 40% of the actual cost. https://tcf.org/content/commentary/in-defense-of-the-cheap-s... (I suspect that they're only looking at operating costs, not capital costs.)

> No, I wasn't proposing my ideal economic program. That would start with a lot more of Karl Marx and Henry George.

I know you weren't, I was just noticing a pattern in your thinking anyway. :) I'm pretty Austrian so..... yeah. TIL Henry George though, he seems like a cool guy: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/04/land-val... Anything to motivate cities to develop more is good in my book!

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#222
post #137

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

I've had this suspicion that I've been meaning to look into to find out if the numbers match up. The biggest growing industries to me seem to be the service industry and entertainment. Both of these are really superfluous. If is true, I see this as a symptom that we have fewer useful jobs and are pushing people into these superfluous jobs--kind of a sign that soon we'll have more people than jobs. More to your case,…

So why if there's demand for certain jobs, why there aren't more programs to train more of them.

Medicare (i.e., the federal government, congress) sets de facto limits on the number of new residents that are trained each year.

"The Balanced Budget Refinement Act of 1999 (BBRA) increased the limit for rural teaching hospitals to equal 130% of each rural teaching hospital's 1996 resident count (BBRA Section 407)."

https://www.aamc.org/advocacy/gme/71178/gme_gme0012.html

Debates on these matters constantly criticize the few elements of freedom in our existing system. Rarely do people acknowledge any of the controls and regulations that have been in place for decades, and have brought us to our current crisis...

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

> barely more than minimum wage. I hear this all the time, but when I want to employ a lawyer they want $400/hr.

People say that laptop factory workers make barely more than the minimum wage, but when I want to buy a new laptop, Apple wants $1000.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#224
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There must be more than two alternatives, though? If we're examining it from the perspective of advancement, and we know that political restrictions on economic development (i.e., regulation) slow development (compare the development delta of periods in 19th century with today), what we end up with is an infinite number of mixtures between freedom and controls. What I'm telling you is that there are some controls we…

On the one hand you argue for a free market approach (less regulations and hence more doctors) but then you also argue for a meritocracy (those who work and think should get priority). Both of these are definitely not democratic, and for the time being democracies are the preeminent social construct with massive momentum behind them. Changing that abruptly would be seriously destabilizing for the entire world.

Changing that abruptly would be seriously destabilizing for the entire world.

You're absolutely right about this point, which is why benefits need to be removed over time. (People that have expected a Social Security check, and have paid into it their entire lives can't be expected to react just as they reach retirement. However, a 25-year-old can be told, "save for your own retirement, because this won't be there for you.")

Having said that, controls can be removed instantly, and to very positive effect. Even a partial relaxation could massively improve things! Imagine how much better my situation would be if the federal government had, in 1999, decided not to keep restricting the number of medical residents allowed to enter/be funded each year. (https://www.aamc.org/advocacy/gme/71178/gme_gme0012.html)

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#225
post #201

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

I feel for you - this kind of thing just shouldn't happen. I think that medicine is a bad example of the point you are trying to make though... It has a lot of embedded costs and roadblocks that aren't really related to regulation. For example - the procedure you describe is highly specialised, and can only be learnt in certain places. Say there are 4 people that can do this procedure at a hospital. Attracting a doct…

One of the roadblocks I forgot to mention is the federal government, which effectively sets limits on the number of new residents that are trained each year: https://www.aamc.org/advocacy/gme/71178/gme_gme0012.html

(Not enough people know this, because there would be real outrage if they did.)

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#226
post #28
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's a huge to-do list of jobs that need to be done at almost every level, from design and build of significant infrastructure in most countries around the world, to community-level support work. But not the money to pay for these jobs. > It would be perfectly possible to retrain the long term unemployed. But who pays for this training? > Allocating labor on the basis of whether or not traders and stock owners c…

Who pays for those people to remain unemployed? They still have food, shelter, utilities...

Someone has to, otherwise you pay for more people to house people in jail... (one way or another; retrain the poor for jobs that exist, enact a Basic Income Guarantee, make being poor a crime, or try to starve the poor which will drive them to crime).

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

> barely more than minimum wage. I hear this all the time, but when I want to employ a lawyer they want $400/hr.

A friend's mother worked in a high-level consulting agency. Her time was billed out at $1000/hour, and she got less than 10% of that. Still a good wage, but she wasn't getting the lion's share of the fee.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

There is no robot that can knock me out (safely so that I wake up when everything is done), snake a thing down my windpipe, poke through the exact right spot in my bronchial tube and into my mediastinum (a name for the bag that my heart), and retrieve a chunk of whatever surrounds my aorta. But here I wait, while people capable of doing this (or at least capable of learning how to do it - and that's a lot of people)…

There's no robot that can write cronjobs for the place I work at, but with my oversight, those cronjobs are force multipliers, allowing little old me to do the job of dozens of people if we had to run those things manually.

Automation doesn't mean a 100% reduction of staff, but merely a significant reduction in staff. There's plenty of automation snaking its way into surgeries.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#229
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> barely more than minimum wage. I hear this all the time, but when I want to employ a lawyer they want $400/hr.

A friend's mother worked in a high-level consulting agency. Her time was billed out at $1000/hour, and she got less than 10% of that. Still a good wage, but she wasn't getting the lion's share of the fee.

If she was being temped out for $1000, she could hang out her own shingle and charge $500.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#230
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, you know, we can admit there is enough food and shelter to go around for everyone and stop pretending everyone needs to work.

Yes... We should promise them free food and shelter, in exchange for votes.

As opposed to tax breaks? Sure, why not.
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