How a Danish Town Helped Young Muslims Turn Away from ISIS

There are plenty of other countries which are considerably poorer than the middle east. Circa 2010 Syria wasn't a "bad" place, the average income was greater than that say of India, it was about equal to that of Moldova and the Republic of Macedonia both which are both EU accession candidates.

Syrians (and Saudis) who joined the insurgency in Iraq weren't disenfranchised infact they were from the elite, often dropping out of university to go and join the "cause". Osama Bin Laden who founded AQ was born into one of the richest families in the world, had higher education and really had no hard done to him by anyone.

Europeans who join ISIS are mostly 2nd and 3rd generation "immigrants", often to mixed families and "fresh converts", they aren't particularly disenfranchised either.

Geopolitics and economics do have a role in conflicts everywhere, but the sooner you stop blaming everything on people being poor, oppressed and "western expansionism" the sooner we might actually be able to start working on a solution.

Last time I've checked Tibet is effectively poorer than Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, not to mention the smaller gulf states (and I'm not counting the average which is skewed because of how the wealth is distributed) and it's quite objectively oppressed but I have yet to see Tibetans blowing up restaurants in China.

If you read enough old books you'll notice that the authors ascribe a general temperament to each European nation. The word temperament today is not in common use except in animal breeding and the nearest equivalent we have today is the word stereotype, which captures some but not all of the meaning.

Here is a formal example of what I mean:

http://i.imgur.com/r3bom1c.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/Qen8lBA.png

While some of this is hilariously old fashioned or historical period specific, it is also interesting just how many traits are consistent enough that we recognize them centuries later.

This could be astrology or tea leaf reading, but I think it merits a genuine scientific investigation. It may be anecdotal but far too many people agree the Italians are very fond of chatting, including the Italians.

All of this is to say, while it is true that Islam is dominant in countries where periodic religious warfare breaks out, it is possibly Islam is derived from collective temperament and not the other way around. It should definitely be treated seriously as a hypothesis.

Science only works predicatively if the sample size n > 1.

You can run counterfactuals but you can't run experiments on history.

By studying history you can discover recurring patterns but these are more like heuristics than laws of nature.

Did you know that Germany had a similar reproduction problem pre-1914?

It was also held to be the most civilized culture in Europe at the time.

Or that France was the strongest nation before the Revolution? This was before a financial crisis and failed harvests tipped the balance suddenly.

Point is that when things go tits up it is always less than obvious to the people involved. Even when you find evidence of 'cracks' developing that led up to that situation, they hold little predictive power when discovered in other situations.

Consider this prediction for example.

Right now France is receiving the brunt of attacks by Islamic extremists. Logically any public outcry and counter-reaction should start there, yes?

But I think it is actually more likely in Germany, Holland or Denmark because of national psychology. They tend to go one way, or the other, you should know the Germans don't do half measures.

Can I measure that scientifically? Hell no. I'd still put money down on it.