I formulated the attack myself with your numbers seeming similar. It's one of reasons I didn't trust Tor. The success rate described in Snowden docs indicate NSA might be doing this experimentally. I don't think they're fully committed to point where they're running most nodes or anything. Being careful.
The difficulties wouldn't be as much as it seems. They probably wouldn't even be shut down that often. Just a small number of high-bandwidth nodes from front companies would net them a lot of intel. They could also partner with Five Eyes and Euro agencies as they all seem to want to de-anonymize Tor users. Each could have fronts doing it with their own operational techniques to muddy the situation up. Again, probably already do in a small way.
We haven't even discussed QUANTUM-ing the Tor servers. They really, really need memory-safe machines & implementations from CPU up if they're expecting to withstand high-strength attackers. Haven't looked at code or supported OS's in a while but I'm guessing default implementation doesn't fit that bill. ;)