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Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

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Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#131

Post by effie »

rasz_pl wrote: post #128
ptaipale wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To lighten up: under Soviet rule, which shop did not have empty shelves? The shelf shop. Compare then to http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-30710014 - the Polish in 80's did not have Twitter.

We didnt need twitter, mainstream TV series (subs, alternatywy 4) and movies (mis, co mi zrobisz jak mnie zlapiesz) pretty much celebrated Polish ingenuity in the face of economic reality :/ examples: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qWnnuaSS4k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37A9YAhNPyI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqiXby24Yvo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57r5dqtnyAU You can even play a monopoly inspired board…

Thanks, those videos are really bewildering. Were they commonly watched by Poles back then? Weren't such direct depiction of how things were opposed by the establishment?

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#132

Post by rafaelm »

ptaipale wrote: post #120
zo1 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that were to happen, the US border being open/closed wouldn't matter for too-long as Venezuela would close its own borders. To restrict the egress of productive citizens.

And anyway, it's not really a solution. Not everyone will ever be able to leave; if a country is going down, it will need to be fixed. And it can only really be fixed by the people of that country; the more of its people (those with skill, training, education and initiative) leave, the harder is it going to be for those who remain.

Unfortunately, people are already leaving at an alarming rate, mostly young people who see no future in the country.

The government already did a test, blocking our border with Colombia, with the excuse that products from Venezuela were being smuggled to Colombia. That does happen of course, but they also blocked the movement of people. And most international airlines are leaving the country because the government won't pay for them to repatriate their earnings in the country.

I'm trying to get my papers in order and see where I might be able to go. No one really wants to permanently leave their country, but unfortunately I don't see a future here. I don't want to be stuck here till I'm old hoping things will get better soon.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#133

Post by bduerst »

junto wrote: post #123
roymurdock wrote: post #25

The second "conspiracy theory" explanation presented in the article seems the simplest and most plausible: Close associates of the administration are major holders of the country’s bonds and...the government fears it’d lose their much-needed support if the payments stopped coming in. Efforts to obtain comment from government press officials on this and other aspects of the story were unsuccessful. Either that, or deb…

Venezuela is one of those classic south American countries politically. It either has a government that is extremely socialist or extremely oligarchic. Venezuela has traditionally been governed by people tied closely to the media empires in the country. Extremely powerful and rich people that use the counter as their plaything. The poor suffer and the upper class prosper. The gap between rich and poor grows. At some…

You're right on many points, but I feel like Venezuela is more of just an innocent (or maybe not-so-innocent) bystander in the current energy tug of war going on right now between the U.S. and Russia / OPEC. The increased tapping on U.S. natural gas reserves hasn't helped any of the smaller nations that rely on energy exports, so I don't think the U.S. is intentionally trying to destabilize Venezuela like it would have in the 70's and 80's- it's just a side effect of the current global energy industry.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#134

Post by ArkyBeagle »

mistermann wrote: post #121
ArkyBeagle wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just as a first-order guess of your second half, what you describe sounds highly illegal. The first part makes more sense - and it's not a conspiracy theory - they want to keep access to bond markets.

There's illegal, and then there's "illegal". You'd think with what we see in the news today you wouldn't have as many people saying public officials can't do something because it's illegal.

The problem is that law and rules may constrain officials in unexpected ways, leading to "illegal" but maybe not so bad. Officials may have "the root password" so to speak.

In this case, I think it probably would be bad, but its a haul to say that this applies here. "Maintaining access to bond markets" requires less lifting so I'd start looking there.

The current email server controversy highlights this - an appointed cabinet official may actually be subject to slightly different rules than other people. Of course this is perceived as unfair, but it might just be inherent in the system design - I don't actually know. There is emerging in security and safety culture a Fundamentalist "no exceptions" mentality. But formal systems have holes - we know this.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#135

Post by paulmd »

rmsaksida wrote: post #78
cperciva wrote: post #34

There's another possibility which wasn't mentioned in the article: Maybe the government is quite happy with the food shortages. They have used control of the food supply to reward their supporters and to punish their opponents; this gives them tremendous power, and why should they give up that power just for the sake of a few million starving citizens?

This is a government that hired militia to shoot teenagers in student protests [1]. While I don't think the food shortages were intentional, there's no doubt they are an useful tool to control the population. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/14/venezuela-viol...

This is nonsense. All things equal, they would certainly prefer a population that isn't starving to the point of revolution. That's a really fantastic way to end up with your head on a pike.

Venezuela's leaders are certainly putting their personal fortunes and their ideology ahead of the good of the people, and their economy/currency has crashed as a result. But that's quite different from twirling their moustaches as they deliberately set out to starve an entire population as a primary/intended outcome.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#136

Post by rasz_pl »

effie wrote: post #131
rasz_pl wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We didnt need twitter, mainstream TV series (subs, alternatywy 4) and movies (mis, co mi zrobisz jak mnie zlapiesz) pretty much celebrated Polish ingenuity in the face of economic reality :/ examples: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qWnnuaSS4k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37A9YAhNPyI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqiXby24Yvo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57r5dqtnyAU You can even play a monopoly inspired board…

Thanks, those videos are really bewildering. Were they commonly watched by Poles back then? Weren't such direct depiction of how things were opposed by the establishment?

There was extreme media censorship (GUKPPiW 1946-1990), but directed almost exclusively towards dissident political statements and praise of western prosperity. You were still allowed to show foreign wealth as long as you showed for example how easily Polish creativity fleeced westerners out of it. Labelling everything as a comedy also helped, still for example 'Alternatywy 4'(same director as the clips below) spend 3 years being edited/censored. Those were prime time TV shows broadcast couple of years before fall of the Iron Curtain, maybe even slightly contributing to the growing unrest and eventual Polish exit from the Eastern Bloc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5MXX_n0pfQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThD7AmKQkjg

https://youtu.be/_nmGi757fyo?t=5m1s

TV was not allowed to show anything celebrating western lifestyle. We didnt get Miami Vice, Wonder Years, MacGyver, A Team or Dynasty until ~5 years after kicking Russians out of our country. Instead foreign tv shows we had were 'Escrava Isaura' and some old chestnuts from the fifties like Zorro. Cinema was a lot better, scifi movies had little trouble with censorship, we got 'New Hope' in 1979, 'Empire Strikes Back' in 1982, 'Terminator' in 1985. Toho Kaiju movies came out same year as in the west. Of course you could get censored for something entirely not in the movie. 1984 'NeverEnding Story' was delayed into 1987 because of directors earlier work 'Das Boot'.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#137

Post by slv77 »

fovc wrote: post #88
countrybama24 wrote: post #80

I'm surprised the article did not mention the theory that they have not defaulted because of the numerous state-owned assets they possess abroad which could be seized by creditors. "Caracas fears a default could open up claims to PdVSA assets, such as rigs, refineries and oil shipments. One target by creditors could be the company’s Houston-based subsidiary, Citgo Petroleum Corp., which has three U.S. refineries that…

How much are those assets worth? Wouldn't the bonds be worth more if these assets were that substantial?

Citgo was stripped of value last year by issuing bonds to pay a large dividend back to Venezuela. It is now so encumbered with debt that any remaining equity value is nominal.

Part of the reason was due to various lawsuits related to assets of US companies that had been nationalized and also to repatriate funds to support government initiatives.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#138

Post by abpavel »

patrickaljord wrote: post #119
abpavel wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because once you're corrupt, there is no honor.

I don't think you're using honor the same way OP is. In LatAm, honor is often used as synonymous of pride or in this case misplaced pride.

Whoa, haven't thought of that. Pride and honor are very distant in my spectrum of understanding. One is internal integrity, and the other is a form of social Google page rank.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#139

Post by bubuga »

bobwaycott wrote: post #70
hourislate wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that you would think Maduro and his Government have any honor. How could they possibly have any face left in the International world? Communist/Socialist Governments typically use such financial vehicles among many others to systematically remove and transfer some/most of their countries wealth into their own/friends coffers through various arrangements with financial institutions et al all the time. Just…

> Communist/Socialist Governments typically use such financial vehicles among many others to systematically remove and transfer some/most of their countries wealth into their own/friends coffers through various arrangements with financial institutions et al all the time. Oh, come on. Such activities happen the world and history over regardless of the ostensible public political veneer.

> Oh, come on. Such activities happen the world and history over regardless of the ostensible public political veneer.

Socialist/communist regimes are founded on a system devised to take away any and all wealth away from the people to handle it to the state, supposedly with the objective of spreading the wealth and taking care of everyone's needs.

In practice, the system takes away any and all wealth from the people, and handles it to the regime's cronies for them to use to pamper themselves as they wish.

The history of socialism repeats itself over and over again. We see it right now in Venezuela, we saw it in Brazil with the successive Worker Party's, we see it right now in Angola as well.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#140

Post by bubuga »

pvaldes wrote: post #124

For some reason Venezuela is not a problem anymore in Spain after the last elections. Conservative politicians talking louder each five minutes or so about "all is chaos and flames, crying children and vulcano lava in Venezuela", happily forget venezuelan people suffering in just one night. The theme basically vanished from both newspapers and TV since 26 june. Perhaps things in Venezuela aren't exactly how some news…

My guess is that Venezuela was a theme during the elections because Maduro's regime has been caught bankrolling Podemos, the anti-establishment socialist party that managed to become the second most-voted party in the last two elections.
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